Evaluation of historical CMIP6 model simulations and future projections of temperature and precipitation in Paraguay

Lovino, Miguel A.; Pierrestegui, M. Josefina; Müller, Omar V.; Berbery, Ernesto Hugo; Müller, Gabriela V.; Pastén, Max

doi:10.1007/s10584-021-03012-4

Cited by 28 publications

(17 citation statements)

References 45 publications

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“…Lovino et al . (2021) evaluated the performance of 19 CMIP6 models to simulate climate features over Paraguay and concluded that the bias‐corrected MME has the highest skill scores and can accurately reproduce the spatial pattern and annual cycle of precipitation. Li et al .…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Comprehensive assessment of CMIP5 and CMIP6 models in simulating and projecting precipitation over the global land

Wang

Zhu

et al. 2022

Intl Journal of Climatology

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The warming climate can considerably alter the Earth's water cycle and change precipitation over land. Climate models are the primary tools for projecting precipitation changes and evaluating climate impacts in various fields. This study compares precipitation from 45 models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) and 49 models in Phase 6 (CMIP6) to observations. The results reveal that the CMIP6 models outperform the CMIP5 models in simulating precipitation patterns over the global land for the historical period. The cumulative distribution function matching method is used to correct the bias in the outputs of the selected CMIP5 and CMIP6 models, and the multi-model ensemble (MME) of the corrected models is then utilized in projecting the precipitation changes under the future scenarios over the global land. The observation-constrained projections show that there is a significant increasing trend in the annual global land precipitation during 2021-2100 under all four scenarios, and the rates are 3.0, 4.23, 6.77 and 8.96 mm/decade under the RCP4.5, SSP2-4.5, RCP8.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, respectively. Moreover, the average annual global land precipitation is projected to increase by 4.9% (RCP4.5), 8.1% (RCP8.5), 4.6% (SSP2-4.5) and 10.1% (SSP5-8.5) by 2081-2100 relative to 1986-2005. Increases in global average precipitation may result in more flood, causing higher flooding risk in the future.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Comprehensive assessment of CMIP5 and CMIP6 models in simulating and projecting precipitation over the global land

Wang

Zhu

et al. 2022

Intl Journal of Climatology

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“…Before assessing projections into the future, it is essential to evaluate the credibility of CMIP6 simulations with respect to observations on regional scales. Recent studies have already investigated the performance of CMIP6 in simulating regional historical climate and achieved positive results (Fan et al 2020b;Grose et al 2020;Li et al 2021;Lovino et al 2021;Srivastava et al 2020). However, a comprehensive assessment relative to historical observations over the PTP region has not yet been performed, especially for looking at the climate extremes.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evaluation of historical CMIP6 model simulations and future projections of temperature over the Pan-Third Pole region

Fan

Duan

Shen

et al. 2021

Environ Sci Pollut Res

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The Pan-Third Pole (PTP) region, which encompasses the Eurasian highlands and their surroundings, has experienced unprecedented, accelerated warming during the past decades. This study evaluates the performance of historical simulation runs of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) in capturing spatial patterns and temporal variations observed over the PTP region for mean and extreme temperatures. In addition, projected changes in temperatures under four Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios (SSP1‐2.6, SSP2‐4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5‐8.5) are also reported. Four indices were used to characterize changes in temperature extremes: the annual maximum value of daily maximum temperature (TXx), the annual minimum value of daily minimum temperature (TNn), and indices for the percentage of warm days (TX90p) and warm nights (TN90p). Results indicate that most CMIP6 models generally capture the characteristics of the observed mean and extreme temperatures over the PTP region, but there still are slight cold biases in the Tibetan Plateau. Future changes of mean and extreme temperatures demonstrate that a strong increase will occur for the entire PTP region during the twenty-first century under all four SSP scenarios. Between 2015 and 2099, ensemble area-averaged annual mean temperatures are projected to increase by 1.24 °C/100 year, 3.28 °C/100 year, 5.57 °C/100 year, and 7.40 °C/100 year for the SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, respectively. For TXx and TNn, the most intense warming is projected in Central Asia. The greatest number of projected TX90p and TN90p will occur in the Southeast Asia and Tibetan Plateau, respectively.

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“…The Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5) are now known as the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP4-6.0, and SSP5-8.5) [12,17]. We refer readers to the following literature for more details on: CMIP-1 [13,18,19]; CMIP-2 [14,16], CMIP-3 [18][19][20][21], CMIP5 [20,[22][23][24], and CMIP6 [25][26][27][28]:…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Even now, with CMIP6, there is sufficient evidence to suggest the occurrence of a simulated mean warming climate due to a rising T [12,[19][20][21]24,27,[30][31][32][33][34][35][36]. A warming climate certainly impacts P distribution, which influences ET in both space and time [10,27,28]. Moreover, this comes as a natural question in the study of projections of future changes in ET seasonality vis-a-vis recent evidence of significant changes in P and T in some parts of the world [22,25,27,[30][31][32]37,38].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Future Changes in Simulated Evapotranspiration across Continental Africa Based on CMIP6 CNRM-CM6

Nooni

Hagan

Wang

et al. 2021

IJERPH

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The main goal of this study was to assess the interannual variations and spatial patterns of projected changes in simulated evapotranspiration (ET) in the 21st century over continental Africa based on the latest Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and the Representative Concentration Pathways (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5) provided by the France Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques (CNRM-CM) model in the Sixth Phase of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) framework. The projected spatial and temporal changes were computed for three time slices: 2020–2039 (near future), 2040–2069 (mid-century), and 2080–2099 (end-of-the-century), relative to the baseline period (1995–2014). The results show that the spatial pattern of the projected ET was not uniform and varied across the climate region and under the SSP-RCPs scenarios. Although the trends varied, they were statistically significant for all SSP-RCPs. The SSP5-8.5 and SSP3-7.0 projected higher ET seasonality than SSP1-2.6 and SSP2-4.5. In general, we suggest the need for modelers and forecasters to pay more attention to changes in the simulated ET and their impact on extreme events. The findings provide useful information for water resources managers to develop specific measures to mitigate extreme events in the regions most affected by possible changes in the region’s climate. However, readers are advised to treat the results with caution as they are based on a single GCM model. Further research on multi-model ensembles (as more models’ outputs become available) and possible key drivers may provide additional information on CMIP6 ET projections in the region.

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Evaluation of historical CMIP6 model simulations and future projections of temperature and precipitation in Paraguay

Cited by 28 publications

References 45 publications

Comprehensive assessment of CMIP5 and CMIP6 models in simulating and projecting precipitation over the global land

Comprehensive assessment of CMIP5 and CMIP6 models in simulating and projecting precipitation over the global land

Evaluation of historical CMIP6 model simulations and future projections of temperature over the Pan-Third Pole region

Future Changes in Simulated Evapotranspiration across Continental Africa Based on CMIP6 CNRM-CM6

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