Evaluation of real-time hydrometeorological ensemble prediction on hydrologic scales in Northern California

Georgakakos, Konstantine P.; Graham, Nicholas E.; Modrick, Theresa M.; Murphy, Michael J.; Shamir, Eylon; Spencer, Cristopher R.; Sperfslage, Jason A.

doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2014.05.032

Cited by 29 publications

(15 citation statements)

References 32 publications

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“…Usually, precipitation forecast deteriorates with increasing lead time [Georgakakos et al, 2014]. Accuracy of the forecasted precipitation also depends on the model parameterization and spatial resolution.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessment of the weather research and forecasting model generalized parameterization schemes for advancement of precipitation forecasting in monsoon‐driven river basins

Sikder

Hossain

2016

J Adv Model Earth Syst

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Some of the world's largest and flood‐prone river basins experience a seasonal flood regime driven by the monsoon weather system. Highly populated river basins with extensive rain‐fed agricultural productivity such as the Ganges, Indus, Brahmaputra, Irrawaddy, and Mekong are examples of monsoon‐driven river basins. It is therefore appropriate to investigate how precipitation forecasts from numerical models can advance flood forecasting in these basins. In this study, the Weather Research and Forecasting model was used to evaluate downscaling of coarse‐resolution global precipitation forecasts from a numerical weather prediction model. Sensitivity studies were conducted using the TOPSIS analysis to identify the likely best set of microphysics and cumulus parameterization schemes, and spatial resolution from a total set of 15 combinations. This identified best set can pinpoint specific parameterizations needing further development to advance flood forecasting in monsoon‐dominated regimes. It was found that the Betts‐Miller‐Janjic cumulus parameterization scheme with WRF Single‐Moment 5‐class, WRF Single‐Moment 6‐class, and Thompson microphysics schemes exhibited the most skill in the Ganges‐Brahmaputra‐Meghna basins. Finer spatial resolution (3 km) without cumulus parameterization schemes did not yield significant improvements. The short‐listed set of the likely best microphysics‐cumulus parameterization configurations was found to also hold true for the Indus basin. The lesson learned from this study is that a common set of model parameterization and spatial resolution exists for monsoon‐driven seasonal flood regimes at least in South Asian river basins.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessment of the weather research and forecasting model generalized parameterization schemes for advancement of precipitation forecasting in monsoon‐driven river basins

Sikder

Hossain

2016

J Adv Model Earth Syst

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“…One approach is to quantify the uncertainty in the IC with the use of model ensembles (e.g. Durai and Bhardwaj, 2013;Georgakakos et al, 2014). In the ensemble approach, the model is initialized with multiple perturbations of the IC to reduce sensitivity to a single realization of the IC.…”

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confidence: 99%

Sensitivity of initial‐condition and cloud microphysics to the forecasting of monsoon rainfall in South Asia

Sikder

Hossain

2018

Meteorological Applications

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The objective of this study is to assess the impact of using different initialization techniques and cloud microphysics of a numerical atmospheric model to improve the forecasting of Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR). A total of six intense precipitation events over the Ganges–Brahmaputra–Meghna and Indus River basins were tested to identify the most suitable combination of parameterization and initialization techniques. The global forecast system (GFS)‐based numerical weather prediction (NWP) forecast fields were dynamically downscaled by the mesoscale model of weather research and forecasting (WRF). The performance of four types of initial conditions with three cloud microphysics was assessed using a model resolution of up to 9 km. A main conclusion is that the model initialized using hot start in the study involves more uncertainty, probably due to poor‐quality data assimilation, and it cannot exceed the performance of cold‐start initialization. The study findings provide evidence that the finer resolution initial condition is promising in higher resolution models. In the case of cloud microphysics, the performance of WRF single moment 5 class (WSM5) was sufficient for South Asian monsoon systems within this scale of the model resolution. The findings provide a general guideline for flood forecasters for the WRF model set‐up for forecasting the ISMR from publicly available GFS‐based NWP forecast fields.

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“…This model was successfully implemented in the Sierra Nevada, Northern California [48][49][50][51][52], Southern California [53], and the Panama Canal watershed [54,55]. It was shown to perform comparably to the full-physics numerical weather prediction mesoscale models (e.g., WRF) in regions with pronounced terrain features [18,[48][49][50][51][52] at a very significant computational savings.…”

Section: Orographic Precipitation Model (Opm)mentioning

confidence: 99%

The Use of an Orographic Precipitation Model to Assess the Precipitation Spatial Distribution in Lake Kinneret Watershed

Shamir

Rimmer

Georgakakos

2016

Water

Self Cite

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Abstract:A high-resolution 3-D orographic precipitation model (OPM) forced by Climate Forecast System (CFS) reanalysis fields was developed for the Lake Kinneret watershed (Israel-Syria-Lebanon territories). The OPM was tuned to represent the interaction between the advected and stratiform rainfall, and the local orographic enhancement. The OPM evaluation was focused on the densely instrumented lower part of the watershed. To evaluate the ungauged upper-elevation, bias-adjusted precipitation estimates from the Global-Hydro-Estimator were used. The OPM simulates higher rainfall amounts in the upper-elevation watershed compared to currently used rainfall estimates from an elevation dependent regression. The larger differences are during rain events with southwesterly wind flow and high moisture flux. These conditions, according to the OPM, are conducive to enhanced orographic lifting in the Hermon Mountain. A sensitivity analysis indicated that the higher wind speeds for southwesterly-northwesterly trajectories generate significant orographic lifting and increase the precipitation differences between the lower and upper elevations.

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Evaluation of real-time hydrometeorological ensemble prediction on hydrologic scales in Northern California

Cited by 29 publications

References 32 publications

Assessment of the weather research and forecasting model generalized parameterization schemes for advancement of precipitation forecasting in monsoon‐driven river basins

Assessment of the weather research and forecasting model generalized parameterization schemes for advancement of precipitation forecasting in monsoon‐driven river basins

Sensitivity of initial‐condition and cloud microphysics to the forecasting of monsoon rainfall in South Asia

The Use of an Orographic Precipitation Model to Assess the Precipitation Spatial Distribution in Lake Kinneret Watershed

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