Evaluation of the absolute regional temperature potential

Shindell, D. T.

doi:10.5194/acp-12-7955-2012

Cited by 35 publications

(29 citation statements)

References 21 publications

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“…For all forcings, even the relatively homogeneous ones caused by LLGHGs, there is a distinct pattern in the temperature response controlled largely by the response pattern of the climate feedbacks (Boer and Yu, 2003;Shindell, 2012). Combing these two effects for a given emission of a SLCF, the heterogeneity in RF may cause further inhomogeneity in the climate response.…”

Section: Regional Metric Valuesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…separate the world into four latitude bands and estimated regional responses from regional RFs for some selected LLGHGs and SLCFs, though it is feasible to do this at smaller scales (Henze et al, 2012). This work has been extended by introducing the Absolute Regional Temperature Potential (ARTP) (Shindell, 2012;Collins et al, 2013).…”

Section: Regional Metric Valuesmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Simple emission metrics for climate impacts

2013

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In the context of climate change, emissions of different species (e.g., carbon dioxide and methane) are not directly comparable since they have different radiative efficiencies and lifetimes. Since comparisons via detailed climate models are computationally expensive and complex, emission metrics were developed to allow a simple and straightforward comparison of the estimated climate impacts of emissions of different species. Emission metrics are not unique and variety of different emission metrics has been proposed, with key choices being the climate impacts and time horizon to use for comparisons. In this paper, we present analytical expressions and describe how to calculate common emission metrics for different species. We include the climate metrics radiative forcing, integrated radiative forcing, temperature change and integrated temperature change in both absolute form and normalised to a reference gas. We consider pulse emissions, sustained emissions and emission scenarios. The species are separated into three types: CO₂ which has a complex decay over time, species with a simple exponential decay, and ozone precursors (NO_x, CO, VOC) which indirectly effect climate via various chemical interactions. We also discuss deriving Impulse Response Functions, radiative efficiency, regional dependencies, consistency within and between metrics and uncertainties. We perform various applications to highlight key applications of emission metrics, which show that emissions of CO₂ are important regardless of what metric and time horizon is used, but that the importance of short lived climate forcers varies greatly depending on the metric choices made. Further, the ranking of countries by emissions changes very little with different metrics despite large differences in metric values, except for the shortest time horizons (GWP20)

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Section: Regional Metric Valuesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Regional Metric Valuesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Simple emission metrics for climate impacts

2013

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“…Even though the coefficients are likely model dependent, we had to use these values because they are not available from any other model (and specifically not from the ECLIPSE models). The coefficients also seem fairly robust in comparison with the response to historical aerosol forcing in several other models (Shindell, 2012). We made two additions, however, for BC in the Arctic and BC on snow using the method of Lund et al (2014a) with results from Samset et al (2013) and Flanner (2013).…”

Section: A Stohl Et Al: Evaluating the Climate And Air Quality Impamentioning

confidence: 99%

Evaluating the climate and air quality impacts of short-lived pollutants

et al. 2015

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Abstract. This paper presents a summary of the work done within the European Union's Seventh Framework Programme project ECLIPSE (Evaluating the Climate and Air Quality Impacts of Short-Lived Pollutants). ECLIPSE had a unique systematic concept for designing a realistic and effective mitigation scenario for short-lived climate pollutants (SLCPs; methane, aerosols and ozone, and their precursor species) and quantifying its climate and air quality impacts, and this paper presents the results in the context of this overarching strategy. The first step in ECLIPSE was to create a new emission inventory based on current legislation (CLE) for the recent past and until 2050. Substantial progress compared to previous work was made by including previously unaccounted types of sources such as flaring of gas associated with oil production, and wick lamps. These emission data were used for present-day reference simulations with four advanced Earth system models (ESMs) and six chemistry transport models (CTMs). The model simulations were compared with a variety of ground-based and satellite observational data sets from Asia, Europe and the Arctic. It was found that the models still underestimate the measured seasonality of aerosols in the Arctic but to a lesser extent than in previous studies. Problems likely related to the emissions were identified for northern Russia and India, in particular. To estimate the climate impacts of SLCPs, ECLIPSE followed two paths of research: the first path calculated radiative Published by Copernicus Publications on behalf of the European Geosciences Union. A. Stohl et al.: Evaluating the climate and air quality impacts of short-lived pollutantsforcing (RF) values for a large matrix of SLCP species emissions, for different seasons and regions independently. Based on these RF calculations, the Global Temperature change Potential metric for a time horizon of 20 years (GTP 20 ) was calculated for each SLCP emission type. This climate metric was then used in an integrated assessment model to identify all emission mitigation measures with a beneficial air quality and short-term (20-year) climate impact. These measures together defined a SLCP mitigation (MIT) scenario. Compared to CLE, the MIT scenario would reduce global methane (CH 4 ) and black carbon (BC) emissions by about 50 and 80 %, respectively. For CH 4 , measures on shale gas production, waste management and coal mines were most important. For non-CH 4 SLCPs, elimination of high-emitting vehicles and wick lamps, as well as reducing emissions from gas flaring, coal and biomass stoves, agricultural waste, solvents and diesel engines were most important. These measures lead to large reductions in calculated surface concentrations of ozone and particulate matter. We estimate that in the EU, the loss of statistical life expectancy due to air pollution was 7.5 months in 2010, which will be reduced to 5.2 months by 2030 in the CLE scenario. The MIT scenario would reduce this value by another 0.9 to 4.3 months. Substantially larger reductions du...

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“…Warren and Wiscombe, 1980;Clarke and Noone, 1985;Jacobson, 2004;Hadley and Kirchstetter, 2012). Overall, Shindell and Faluvegi (2009) and Shindell (2012) pointed out that the temperature response to a radiative forcing is not necessarily correlated with the location of this radiative forcing. This is particularly true for the Arctic surface temperature response, which can be of opposite sign to that of the radiative forcing.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Boreal and temperate snow cover variations induced by black carbon emissions in the middle of the 21st century

et al. 2013

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Abstract. We used a coupled climate-chemistry model to quantify the impacts of aerosols on snow cover north of 30 • N both for the present-day and for the middle of the 21st century. Black carbon (BC) deposition over continents induces a reduction in the mean number of days with snow at the surface (MNDWS) that ranges from 0 to 10 days over large areas of Eurasia and Northern America for the presentday relative to the pre-industrial period. This is mainly due to BC deposition during the spring, a period of the year when the remaining of snow accumulated during the winter is exposed to both strong solar radiation and a large amount of aerosol deposition induced themselves by a high level of transport of particles from polluted areas. North of 30 • N, this deposition flux represents 222 Gg BC month −1 on average from April to June in our simulation. A large reduction in BC emissions is expected in the future in all of the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios. In particular, considering the RCP8.5 in our simulation leads to a decrease in the spring BC deposition down to 110 Gg month −1 in the 2050s. However, despite the reduction of the aerosol impact on snow, the MNDWS is strongly reduced by 2050, with a decrease ranging from 10 to 100 days from presentday values over large parts of the Northern Hemisphere. This reduction is essentially due to temperature increase, which is quite strong in the RCP8.5 scenario in the absence of climate mitigation policies. Moreover, the projected sea-ice retreat in the next decades will open new routes for shipping in the Arctic. However, a large increase in shipping emissions in the Arctic by the mid-21st century does not lead to significant changes of BC deposition over snow-covered areas in our simulation. Therefore, the MNDWS is clearly not affected through snow darkening effects associated with these Arctic ship emissions. In an experiment without nudging toward atmospheric reanalyses, we simulated however some changes of the MNDWS considering such aerosol ship emissions. These changes are generally not statistically significant in boreal continents, except in Quebec and in the West Siberian plains, where they range between −5 and −10 days. They are induced both by radiative forcings of the aerosols when they are in the snow and in the atmosphere, and by all the atmospheric feedbacks. These experiments do not take into account the feedbacks induced by the interactions between ocean and atmosphere as they were conducted with prescribed sea surface temperatures. Climate change by the mid-21st century could also cause biomass burning activity (forest fires) to become more intense and occur earlier in the season. In an idealised scenario in which forest fires are 50 % stronger and occur 2 weeks earlier and later than at present, we simulated an increase in spring BC deposition of 21 Gg BC month −1 over continents located north of 30 • N. This BC deposition does not impact directly the snow cover through snow darkening effects. However, in an experiment considering ...

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Evaluation of the absolute regional temperature potential

Cited by 35 publications

References 21 publications

Simple emission metrics for climate impacts

Simple emission metrics for climate impacts

Evaluating the climate and air quality impacts of short-lived pollutants

Boreal and temperate snow cover variations induced by black carbon emissions in the middle of the 21st century

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