Evaluation of the Eta Simulations Nested in Three Global Climate Models

Chou, Sin Chan; Lyra, André; Mourão, Caroline; Dereczynski, Claudine Pereira; Pilotto, Isabel L.; Gomes, Jorge L.; Bustamante, Josiane F.; Tavares, Priscila; Silva, Adán; Rodrigues, Daniela; Campos, Diego; Sueiro, Gustavo; Siqueira, Gracielle; Nobre, Paulo; Marengo, José A.; Chagas, Diego

doi:10.4236/ajcc.2014.35039

Cited by 223 publications

(215 citation statements)

References 35 publications

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“…For South America and speci cally for Brazil, the rst projections have indicated an increase in temperatures and an uncertain pattern in the rainfall distribution [12,13]. Such patterns have been con rmed in the more recent studies of Chou et al, Sánchez et al, and Salviano et al [21][22][23].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 60%

Solar Radiation Models and Gridded Databases to Fill Gaps in Weather Series and to Project Climate Change in Brazil

Bender

Sentelhas

2018

Advances in Meteorology

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e quantification of climate change impacts on several human activities depends on reliable weather data series, without gaps and long enough to build up future climate. Based on that, this study aimed to evaluate the performance of temperature-based models for estimating global solar radiation and gridded databases (AgCFSR, AgMERRA, NASA/POWER, and XAVIER) as alternative ways for filling gaps in historical weather series in Brazil and to project climate change scenarios based on measured and gridded weather data. Projections for mid-and end-of-century periods (2040-2069 and 2070-2099), using seven global climate models from CMIP5 under intermediate (RCP4.5) and high (RCP8.5) emission scenarios, were performed. e Bristow-Campbell model was the one that best estimated solar radiation, whereas the XAVIER gridded database was the closest to observed weather data. Future climate projections, under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, as expected, showed warmer conditions for all scenarios over Brazil. On the contrary, rainfall projections are more uncertain. Despite that, the rainfall amounts will be reduced in the North-Northeast region and increased in Southern Brazil. No significant differences between projections using the observed and XAVIER gridded database were observed; therefore, such a database showed to be reliable for both to fill gaps and to generate climate change scenarios.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 60%

Solar Radiation Models and Gridded Databases to Fill Gaps in Weather Series and to Project Climate Change in Brazil

Bender

Sentelhas

2018

Advances in Meteorology

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“…Nessas áreas, no entanto, a araucária pode ocorrer em locais com microclimas específicos. O mesmo critério foi adotado para os mapas representativos dos cenários climáticos futuros (Figuras 11 a 16), que representaram as regiões com potencial para desenvolvimento da araucária nos períodos 2011-2040, 2041-2070 e 2071-2100, em dois cenários diferentes, com tendências de concentração de GEEs (Representative concentration pathways) -RCP = 4,5, medianamente pessimista, e RCP = 8,5, mais pessimista (Chou et al, 2014b).…”

Section: Nicho De Ocorrência De a Angustifolia No Presente E Nos Cenunclassified

Distribuição natural e habitat da araucária frente às mudanças climáticas globais

et al. 2017

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Resumo -A araucária (Araucaria angustifolia (Bertol.) O. Kuntze.), conhecida como pinheiro-do-paraná, é uma espécie florestal nativa do Brasil, adaptada às regiões serranas frias e úmidas do sul e do sudeste do país e torna-se vulnerável diante das mudanças climáticas globais. Apresenta grande valor econômico, social e ambiental, pois é uma das espécies nativas com maior incremento e potencial de ganho genético, apresenta excelente qualidade de madeira e ainda produz sementes que podem ser usadas na alimentação humana e animal. Com o objetivo de conhecer a distribuição natural atual e o habitat das populações, percorremos parte das bordas da região de ocorrência da araucária, marcando a posição geográfica e altitude. Com as informações de campo, juntamente com dados secundários do Centro de Informações Ambientais (CRIA), mapeamos a distribuição da araucária no presente e simulamos para as próximas décadas, considerando a projeção de cenários climáticos futuros. Estes estudos são essenciais para a melhor compreensão dos riscos de extinção e das medidas mitigadoras que poderiam ser adotadas para reduzir os impactos das mudanças climáticas globais sobre a espécie, contribuindo, dessa maneira, para a sua conservação. Distribution and habitat of brazilian-pine according to global climate changeAbstract -Araucaria angustifolia (Bertol.) O. Kuntze., also known as brazilian-pine, is a forest native species from Brazil. A. angustifolia is more vulnerable to global climate change, considering it is living in cold and humid mountain regions from southern and southeastern Brazil. Among the native Brazilian forest species, it presents one of the greatest growth and genetic gain potential. It shows excellent wood quality and can still be used in human and animal food, presenting great economic, social and environmental value. In order to determine current distribution of the species and better know its habitat, we worked in the regions representing the borders of natural occurrence, identifying populations and getting trees altitude and geographycal position. Field information along with secondary data from the Environmental Information Center (CRIA) were used to map current distribution of brazilian-pine and to project the distribution in the next decades, with the projection of future climate scenarios. Mapping studies of ecological niches in present and future climate scenarios characterizing the environments in which they are living is essential for a better understanding of the risks of species extinction and which mitigating measures could be adequate to reduce the impacts of global climate change on species, thus contributing to the conservation and knowledge of this important species.

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“…The SPEI3 calculation was based on current and future monthly series of P and PET provided by the INPE. These were estimated using the regional climatic model Eta, which was specifically modelled in the La Plata Basin under the boundary conditions of the HadGEM2-ES model and the moderate CO 2 emissions scenario RCP 4.5 [24,27,51,54,55]. We used data spatially distributed in 0.11 arc degree cells (approximately 10 × 10 km) and temporarily divided into a control period and three future climate scenarios: 1961-2005, 2011-2040, 2041-2070, and 2070-2099, henceforth scenarios Sc0, Sc1, Sc2, and Sc3, respectively.…”

Section: Data and Regional Extentmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Moreover, they highlighted that the individual models should be built and evaluated after a deep analysis of the characteristics of the study region. In that sense, the National Institute for Space Research (INPE, São Paulo, Brazil) started using and developing different versions of the Eta Model [46][47][48][49][50][51] for regional climate simulations and projections in the region at the beginning of the XXI century and thus has an excellent knowledge of the study region [46][47][48][51][52][53][54][55][56]. Based on previous studies [24,51,52], Mourao [27] applied to the La Plata Basin the Eta Regional Climate Model with a grid resolution of approximately 10 km and forced by the global climate model HadGEM2-ES [57][58][59].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Analysis of Current and Future SPEI Droughts in the La Plata Basin Based on Results from the Regional Eta Climate Model

Sordo‐Ward

Bejarano

Iglesias

et al. 2017

Water

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Abstract:We identified and analysed droughts in the La Plata Basin (divided into seven sub-basins) for the current period and estimated their expected evolution under future climate projections for the periods 2011-2040, 2041-2070, and 2071-2099. Future climate projections were analysed from results of the Eta Regional Climate Model (grid resolution of approximately 10 km) forced by the global climate model HadGEM2-ES over the La Plata basin, and considering a RCP4.5 emission scenario. Within each sub-basin, we particularly focused our drought analyses on croplands and grasslands, due to their economic relevance. The three-month Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI3) was used for drought identification and characterization. Droughts were evaluated in terms of time (percentage of time from the total length of each climate scenario), space (percentage of total area), and severity (SPEI3 values) of cells characterized by cropland and grassland for each sub-basin and climate scenario. Drought-severity-area-frequency curves were developed to quantitatively relate the frequency distribution of drought occurrence to drought severity and area. For the period 2011-2040, droughts dominate the northern sub-basins, whereas alternating wet and short dry periods dominate the southern sub-basins. Wet climate spread from south to north within the La Plata Basin as more distant future scenarios were analysed, due to both a greater number of wet periods and fewer droughts. The area of each sub-basin affected by drought in all climate scenarios was highly varied temporally and spatially. The likelihood of the occurrence of droughts differed significantly between the studied cover types in the Lower Paraguay sub-basin, being higher for cropland than for grassland. Mainly in the Upper Paraguay and in the Upper Paraná basins the climate projections for all scenarios showed an increase of moderate and severe droughts over large regions dedicated to crops and grasses. On the other hand, for the near future, the Lower Uruguay and the River Plata basins showed a decrease of drought severity compared to the current period. Projections suggest an increase in competition among uses in these regions and the need for a potential relocation of certain crops from the northern regions towards cooler regions located in the centre and south. Further research should consider other climate projections and perform high spatial resolution studies in localized areas.

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Evaluation of the Eta Simulations Nested in Three Global Climate Models

Cited by 223 publications

References 35 publications

Solar Radiation Models and Gridded Databases to Fill Gaps in Weather Series and to Project Climate Change in Brazil

Solar Radiation Models and Gridded Databases to Fill Gaps in Weather Series and to Project Climate Change in Brazil

Distribuição natural e habitat da araucária frente às mudanças climáticas globais

Analysis of Current and Future SPEI Droughts in the La Plata Basin Based on Results from the Regional Eta Climate Model

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