Evaluation of the Expected Climatic Conditions Regarding Cherry Production in Central Hungary

Abstract

Abstract. Production possibilities and risks of a given plant are basically determined by climatic factors. Expected future climate is modelled by several climate scenarios. In this study results of the RegCM3 model downscaled to the Carpathian Basin were used. This paper focuses on the climatic conditions of cherry production in Central Hungary in three time periods: 1961-1990 as a base, 2021-2050 as the near future and 2071-2100 for the long-term analysis. Results show that in the near future fruit cracking risk could be higher, but in overall the expected changes are mostly favourable for cherry production. By the end of the century irrigation may be required for the secure and quality cherry production. It is also advised to re-evaluate the varieties according to the indicated changes, as a new orchard planted nowadays will have many productive years in the second period.

Climate, Winter Chill, and Decision-making in Sweet Cherry Production

“…This study confirms varietal differences (Alburquerque et al, 2008). Varietal difference may also explain grower confusion around winter chill requirement (Alburquerque et al, 2008;Charrier et al, 2011;Gaal et al, 2011;Mounzer et al, 2008). Traditionally (for sweet cherry in Australia), growers consider a general chilling requirement that approximates 800 h of exposure to temperatures between 2 and 12°C (James, 2011).…”

“…Results clearly demonstrate that chill requirement is variety-specific as was seen in a Chilean study (Cortes and Gratacós, 2008) but also confounded by quantification method. Hence, although targeted quantification is warranted for all varieties, it is also important to undertake such quantification with a fixed, consistent, and easily recognized start point (Andreini et al, 2012;Brown, 2011;Gaal et al, 2011) such as 100% leaf fall, which may not occur on the same date for each variety. This study did not address seasonal variation in chill responses.…”

“…Strategies that ensure cherry trees meet their chill requirements are needed for marginal areas (Brunt, 2012;Kapp, 2008;Ruiz et al, 2007) in the short term. It has been suggested that future warming in some regions of central Hungary may have positive impacts on cherry production (Gaal et al, 2011), whereas other regions have started investigating induced breaking of endodormancy in apples resulting from insufficient chill (El-Yazal and Rady, 2012). Chemical dormancy breakers, however, still require significant inputs and increases costs (El-Yazal and Rady, 2012;Erez et al, 1988).…”

“…Deciduous fruit trees are naturally exposed to annual climatic variations over a growing season that drives phenological progression (Campoy et al, 2011;Charrier et al, 2011;Chung et al, 2011;Darbyshire et al, 2011). Climate subsequently impacts on production management decisions (Charrier et al, 2011;Gaal et al, 2011;Mounzer et al, 2008;Zavalloni et al, 2006) and ultimately on yield (Allderman et al, 2011;Andreini et al, 2012;Chung et al, 2011). As such, many studies have highlighted the need to accurately predict climates into the future, but climate prediction must also be linked to quantifiable plant growth and development patterns: tree phenology.…”

“…Studies and data for sweet cherry are limited compared with other fruit such as apples (Koutinas et al, 2010). Many papers (Andreini et al, 2012;Brown, 2011;Gaal et al, 2011;Kapp, 2008) all expose the need to define the start of dormancy; dormancy was described as commencing at a critical temperature threshold, at harvest, at 50% or 100% leaf fall. Commencement of dormancy by season has also been described: spring (Tanino, 2004), summer (Kapp, 2008), fall (Midgley and Lotze, 2011), and winter (Mohamed, 2008).…”