Abstract. This paper aims to simulate and analyse the impact of climate change on the Hungarian wine regions using spatial layers of temperature-based bioclimatic indices. Random forest classification was used to analyse the similarities between the present and future climate of the wine regions. The model was firstly calibrated for the present period then applied for the expected future climatic conditions simulated by the RegCM3 model with A1B scenario. Results show that in the near future (2021-2050) the grapevine regions typical of the southern may expand in greater part of the country, while at the end of the century (2071-2100) only the northern part of the country shows some similarities with the present climate. Despite these results, Hungary is expected to remain amongst the regions with good quality grapevine growing conditions, but the structure of the cultivation and/or varieties should be changed.

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Abstract. Production possibilities and risks of a given plant are basically determined by climatic factors. Expected future climate is modelled by several climate scenarios. In this study results of the RegCM3 model downscaled to the Carpathian Basin were used. This paper focuses on the climatic conditions of cherry production in Central Hungary in three time periods: 1961-1990 as a base, 2021-2050 as the near future and 2071-2100 for the long-term analysis. Results show that in the near future fruit cracking risk could be higher, but in overall the expected changes are mostly favourable for cherry production. By the end of the century irrigation may be required for the secure and quality cherry production. It is also advised to re-evaluate the varieties according to the indicated changes, as a new orchard planted nowadays will have many productive years in the second period.