Potential impacts of climate change on agricultural land use suitability of the Hungarian counties

Gaál, Márta; Quiroga, Sonia; Fernández-Haddad, Zaira

doi:10.1007/s10113-013-0518-3

Cited by 32 publications

(20 citation statements)

References 26 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Unclassified

Order By: Relevance

“…Furthermore, climate change also contributes indirectly to GrPP by affecting land use change (Lobell and Asner, 2003; Yuan et al ., 2012; Zhong et al ., 2012; Mishra et al ., 2013; Yang et al ., 2015). Over the past 20 years, how ecosystem service supply can be affected by the coupled human-environment system, at different scales and contexts, has been at the forefront of global change research, promoting the study of ecological and environmental effects of land use change (Fischer and Sun, 2001; Fischer et al ., 2008; Gaál et al ., 2014). The impact of land use change on GrPP has also become an important research topic in its own right (Wang et al ., 2012; Betts et al ., 2013; Liu et al ., 2015).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Regional difference of grain production potential change and its influencing factors: a case-study of Shaanxi Province, China

Fei

Wang

2019

J. Agric. Sci.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Grain production potential (GrPP) is the maximum production in 1 year that can be achieved by land use under the limitations of climate conditions and in the absence of pests and diseases and other factors. Regional GrPP can change over time and there is an urgent need to identify the main factors affecting regional differences in such changes. Therefore, changes in GrPP were studied for six geographical units in Shaanxi Province, with summer maize and winter wheat as the main grain crops. Changes of GrPP during 2000–2015 were simulated by the global aro-ecological zone model. Analysis of modelled GrPP driven by observed changes in climate and land use suggest that over this period GrPP increased to the north but declined to the south of the Qinling Mountains. This is driven mainly by past changes in climate, with modelled GrPP more sensitive to changes in precipitation than temperature in all geographical units except one. Climate change was the main factor affecting GrPP in all geographical units except one; however, model prediction suggests that land use changes had a clear yield-reducing effect in three of the units. It is the conversion from cultivated land to construction land, grassland and woodland that led to the greatest declines in GrPP in these three geographical units. In order to ensure the stable development of regional agriculture and food security, Shaanxi Province should focus on tapping GrPP north of the Qinling Mountains and increasing the conversion rate of GrPP to actual production.

show abstract

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Regional difference of grain production potential change and its influencing factors: a case-study of Shaanxi Province, China

Fei

Wang

2019

J. Agric. Sci.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…In addition to affecting the grain production potential directly by changing the distribution of agroclimate resources, climate change has also contributed indirectly to grain production potential by affecting land use (Uleberg et al 2014; Zhong et al 2015). Over the past 20 years, with the introduction of the LUCC (Land Use/Land Cover change) research programme and the Global Land Program (GLP), questions on how the supply of ecosystem services may be affected by a human–environment coupling system at different scales and contexts have entered the forefront of global change research (Fischer et al 2008; Gaál et al 2014). Research has promoted the study of the ecological and environmental effects of land use change (Fischer & Sun 2001; Liu et al 2005).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Changes of grain production potential in farming–pastoral ecotone: a case study in West Jilin, China

Fei¹,

Zhang

Zhang³

et al. 2018

J. Agric. Sci.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Grain production potential is mainly influenced by agroclimate and land use. In the present study, substantial regional differences associated with the impact of climate change were found (i.e. the degree of climate-related impacts varied among regions). Currently, there is an urgent need for effective responses and adaptations to different agricultural districts and agricultural production modes. Therefore, the aim was to examine ecotones and explore trends and influential factors associated with grain production potential change. Using the Global Agro-ecological Zone model, the grain production potential of West Jilin, China under different conditions during various years were estimated, considering meteorological, soil, topographic, land use and other data. The results showed that total grain production potential (TGrPP) of West Jilin increased continuously from 1976 to 2013. The average annual increase in TGrPP was higher in period 1 (1976–2000) than period 2 (2000–2013). In period 1, grain production potential was influenced mainly by irrigation percentage changes, followed by land use change. The conversion of grassland to farmland was the most important land use change factor that was associated with increased grain production potential. Climate change affected grain production potential in period 1 negatively. In period 2, climate change had the largest impact and land use imparted the smallest effect on grain production potential. Finally, the decrease in irrigation percentage resulted in reduced grain production potential.

show abstract

“…degrading soil structure and fertility, decrease of the production area, and increased costs of labour, chemicals, seeds and maintenance), but they can not be easily quantified [29]. Natural hazards altogether (hail, wildfire, spring frost, drought, excess water, heavy precipitation, wind erosion) caused around 300 million EUR financial loss in the last decade [28,30]. Based on the potential wind erosion hazard map 26.5 percent of the territory of Hungary is highly and moderately endangered by wind erosion risk [31].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessment of future scenarios for wind erosion sensitivity changes based on ALADIN and REMO regional climate model simulation data

et al. 2016

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Abstract:The changes in rate and pattern of wind erosion sensitivity due to climate change were investigated for 2021-2050 and 2071-2100 compared to the reference period in Hungary. The sensitivities of the main influencing factors (soil texture, vegetation cover and climate factor) were evaluated by fuzzy method and a combined wind erosion sensitivity map was compiled. The climate factor, as the driving factor of the changes, was assessed based on observed data for the reference period, while REMO and ALADIN regional climate model simulation data for the future periods. The changes in wind erosion sensitivity were evaluated on potentially affected agricultural land use types, and hot spot areas were allocated. Based on the results, 5-6% of the total agricultural areas were high sensitive areas in the reference period. In the 21st century slight or moderate changes of wind erosion sensitivity can be expected, and mostly 'pastures', 'complex cultivation patterns', and 'land principally occupied by agriculture with significant areas of natural vegetation' are affected. The applied combination of multi-indicator approach and fuzzy analysis provides novelty in the field of land sensitivity assessment. The method is suitable for regional scale analysis of wind erosion sensitivity changes and supports regional planning by allocating priority areas where changes in agro-technics or land use have to be considered.

show abstract

Potential impacts of climate change on agricultural land use suitability of the Hungarian counties

Cited by 32 publications

References 26 publications

Regional difference of grain production potential change and its influencing factors: a case-study of Shaanxi Province, China

Regional difference of grain production potential change and its influencing factors: a case-study of Shaanxi Province, China

Changes of grain production potential in farming–pastoral ecotone: a case study in West Jilin, China

Assessment of future scenarios for wind erosion sensitivity changes based on ALADIN and REMO regional climate model simulation data

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About