Modelling the Impact of Climate Change on the Hungarian Wine Regions Using Random Forest

Gaál, Márta; Moriondo, Marco; Bindi, Marco

doi:10.15666/aeer/1002_121140

Cited by 53 publications

(29 citation statements)

References 21 publications

(14 reference statements)

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“…As an example, Eitzinger et al (2009) project a doubling of the potential winegrapegrowing areas in Austria by the 2050s. Hungarian southern wine regions are also expected to expand according to Gaal et al (2012). Furthermore, the projected warming in central and northern European regions (e.g., Mosel) will result in prolonged frost-free periods and growing seasons (Bertin 2009), which will favor wine quality (Ashenfelter and Storchmann 2010).…”

Section: Climate Change Impacts On Viticulturementioning

confidence: 99%

An overview of climate change impacts on European viticulture

Fraga

Malheiro

Moutinho-Pereira

et al. 2012

Food and Energy Security

277

194

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The importance of viticulture and of the winemaking socioeconomic sector in Europe is largely acknowledged. The most famous winemaking regions in Europe commonly present very specific environmental characteristics, where climate often plays a central role. Furthermore, given the strong influence of the atmospheric factors on this crop, climate change can significantly affect yield and wine quality under future conditions. Trends recorded in the recent past on many viticultural regions in Europe hint at an already pronounced increase in the growing‐season mean temperatures. Furthermore, climate‐change projections give evidence for significant changes in both the growing‐season temperatures and precipitations in the next decades. Although grapevines have several survival strategies, the mounting evidence for significant climate change in the upcoming decades urges adaptation and mitigation measures to be taken by the whole winemaking sector. Short‐term adaptation measures can be considered as a first protection strategy and should be focused at specific threats, mostly changes in crop‐management practices (e.g., irrigation, sunscreens for leaf protection). At long term, however, a wide range of adaptation measures should be considered (e.g., varietal and land allocation changes). An overview of the current scientific knowledge, mostly concerning the European viticulture, the potential climate change impacts, and feasible adaptation measures is provided herein.

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Section: Climate Change Impacts On Viticulturementioning

confidence: 99%

An overview of climate change impacts on European viticulture

Fraga

Malheiro

Moutinho-Pereira

et al. 2012

Food and Energy Security

277

194

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

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“…Our study demonstrates the benefits of incorporating species collision data sets at WTs as a proxy for species presence into SDM. This process was performed using RF; a machine learning algorithm that has increasingly wide usage in the environmental and nature conservation fields, such as climate change (Gaal, Moriondo, & Bindi, 2012), ecology (Cutler et al, 2007; Evans et al, 2011), forestry (Falkowski et al, 2009) and environmental remote sensing (Rodriguez‐Galiano et al 2011, Adelabu, Mutanga, Adams, & Sebego, 2014). Our approach of using the available collision response (0–1) data from WTs allowed the identification of potential areas with collision risks (Figure 3; Table 3).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This resulted in the overrepresentation of the dominant class, while leading to the underestimation of the minority class, primarily due to the bootstrapping procedures used in the RF models. Therefore, the resulting RF models considered the presence (minority) class and intends to attenuate the overall rate, thereby resulting in very good prediction accuracy (Gaal et al, 2012).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing the spatial distribution of avian collision risks at wind turbine structures in Brandenburg, Germany

Bose

Dürr

Klenke

et al. 2020

Conservat Sci and Prac

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The risk of collision with wind turbines remains a critical issue for bird conservation. Undoubtedly, for the continued development of wind farms to increase the energy capacity, wind farm locations must be carefully chosen going forward. This can be achieved not only by avoiding areas with higher bird densities but also by avoiding installations at sensitive distances from their ecologically important land-use types. Through analyses of the Euclidean distances to the different land-use types, we utilized the random forest (RF) machine learning algorithm to model the distance-based impacts of wind turbine locations on detected bird collisions for the frequently-hit groups of birds at WTs. Although, the predicted areas with potential collision risk in total had a small but highly dispersed expanse of~2,130 km 2 across the vast 29,479 km 2 area of the federal state. Our results further segregated these assessed areas based on their different probabilities of collision thresholds (between 0 and 1) to only detect the areas with collision probabilities <.05, which were interpreted as the actual "no risk areas". These "no risk areas" summed to a total of merely 754 km 2 of the land space in Brandenburg, suggesting that any further planned additions of wind energy farms in the state that is, the proposed wind turbines, to be suitably positioned only in these safer areas. Additionally, the study also enabled the identification of any existing wind turbines already installed in the remaining less safe 28,725 km 2 area of the state. These areas are also essential to be include in the collision detection surveys and bird population dynamic studies. This would further our understanding regarding the deleterious consequences of collisions at the population levels of birds, eventually helping in the formulation of adequate mitigation measures. K E Y W O R D S bird collisions, Euclidean distance, land-use types, random forest, wind energy structures Anushika Bose and Tobias Dürr contributed equally to this work. Reinhard A. Klenke and Klaus Henle contributed equally to this work.

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“…The decreasing precipitation and the increasing temperatures have several visible signs both in Europe and in Hungary during the growing season and dormancy period (Gaál et al, 2012;Cook and Wolkowich, 2016).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Shift in the Annual Growth Cycle of Grapevines (Vitis Vinifera L.) in West Hungary

Kovács¹

2018

Appl. Ecol. Env. Res.

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Abstract.Regional climate change has noticeable influence on grape and wine production in West Hungary. Sopron and Zala wine-growing regions are among the potential winners of the climate change, previously rather unsuitable for viticulture. Over the past 30 years, the minimum and maximum temperatures significantly increased, the precipitation decreased, nevertheless, the convective precipitation increased by 14 days during the growing season. Each climate indicator has changed between 1986 and 2015 compared to the previous 30 years . One of the effects of climate change is a significant shift in the annual growth cycle of grapevines (phenological phases). Budbreak begins nearly 8 days earlier, flowering 7 days and the veraison 8 days, while the harvest has been shifted to a date 11 days respect to the previous period. The time between the budbreak and the flowering has shortened by 4.5 days.

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Modelling the Impact of Climate Change on the Hungarian Wine Regions Using Random Forest

Cited by 53 publications

References 21 publications

An overview of climate change impacts on European viticulture

An overview of climate change impacts on European viticulture

Assessing the spatial distribution of avian collision risks at wind turbine structures in Brandenburg, Germany

Shift in the Annual Growth Cycle of Grapevines (Vitis Vinifera L.) in West Hungary

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