Viticulture and winemaking are important socioeconomic sectors in many European regions. Climate plays a vital role in the terroir of a given wine region, as it strongly controls canopy microclimate, vine growth, vine physiology, yield, and berry composition, which together determine wine attributes and typicity. New challenges are, however, predicted to arise from climate change, as grapevine cultivation is deeply dependent on weather and climate conditions. Changes in viticultural suitability over the last decades, for viticulture in general or the use of specific varieties, have already been reported for many wine regions. Despite spatially heterogeneous impacts, climate change is anticipated to exacerbate these recent trends on suitability for wine production. These shifts may reshape the geographical distribution of wine regions, while wine typicity may also be threatened in most cases. Changing climates will thereby urge for the implementation of timely, suitable, and cost-effective adaptation strategies, which should also be thoroughly planned and tuned to local conditions for an effective risk reduction. Although the potential of the different adaptation options is not yet fully investigated, deserving further research activities, their adoption will be of utmost relevance to maintain the socioeconomic and environmental sustainability of the highly valued viticulture and winemaking sector in Europe.

The importance of viticulture and of the winemaking socioeconomic sector in Europe is largely acknowledged. The most famous winemaking regions in Europe commonly present very specific environmental characteristics, where climate often plays a central role. Furthermore, given the strong influence of the atmospheric factors on this crop, climate change can significantly affect yield and wine quality under future conditions. Trends recorded in the recent past on many viticultural regions in Europe hint at an already pronounced increase in the growing‐season mean temperatures. Furthermore, climate‐change projections give evidence for significant changes in both the growing‐season temperatures and precipitations in the next decades. Although grapevines have several survival strategies, the mounting evidence for significant climate change in the upcoming decades urges adaptation and mitigation measures to be taken by the whole winemaking sector. Short‐term adaptation measures can be considered as a first protection strategy and should be focused at specific threats, mostly changes in crop‐management practices (e.g., irrigation, sunscreens for leaf protection). At long term, however, a wide range of adaptation measures should be considered (e.g., varietal and land allocation changes). An overview of the current scientific knowledge, mostly concerning the European viticulture, the potential climate change impacts, and feasible adaptation measures is provided herein.

Viticulture is a key socio-economic sector in Europe. Owing to the strong sensitivity of grapevines to atmospheric factors, climate change may represent an important challenge for this sector. This study analyses viticultural suitability, yield, phenology, and water and nitrogen stress indices in Europe, for present climates (1980-2005) and future (2041-2070) climate change scenarios (RCP4.5 and 8.5). The STICS crop model is coupled with climate, soil and terrain databases, also taking into account CO physiological effects, and simulations are validated against observational data sets. A clear agreement between simulated and observed phenology, leaf area index, yield and water and nitrogen stress indices, including the spatial differences throughout Europe, is shown. The projected changes highlight an extension of the climatic suitability for grapevines up to 55°N, which may represent the emergence of new winemaking regions. Despite strong regional heterogeneity, mean phenological timings (budburst, flowering, veraison and harvest) are projected to undergo significant advancements (e.g. budburst/harvest can be >1 month earlier), with implications also in the corresponding phenophase intervals. Enhanced dryness throughout Europe is also projected, with severe water stress over several regions in southern regions (e.g. southern Iberia and Italy), locally reducing yield and leaf area. Increased atmospheric CO partially offsets dryness effects, promoting yield and leaf area index increases in central/northern Europe. Future biomass changes may lead to modifications in nitrogen demands, with higher stress in northern/central Europe and weaker stress in southern Europe. These findings are critical decision support systems for stakeholders from the European winemaking sector.

Climate is one of the main factors controlling winegrape production. Bioclimatic indices describing the suitability of a particular region for wine production are a widely used zoning tool. Seven suitable bioclimatic indices characterize regions in Europe with different viticultural suitability, and their possible geographical shifts under future climate conditions are addressed using regional climate model simulations. The indices are calculated from climatic variables (daily values of temperature and precipitation) obtained from transient ensemble simulations with the regional model COSMO-CLM. Index maps for recent decades and for the 21st century (following the IPCC-SRES B1 and A1B scenarios) are compared. Results show that climate change is projected to have a significant effect on European viticultural geography. Detrimental impacts on winegrowing are predicted in southern Europe, mainly due to increased dryness and cumulative thermal effects during the growing season. These changes represent an important constraint to grapevine growth and development, making adaptation strategies crucial, such as changing varieties or introducing water supply by irrigation. Conversely, in western and central Europe, projected future changes will benefit not only wine quality, but might also demarcate new potential areas for viticulture, despite some likely threats associated with diseases. Regardless of the inherent uncertainties, this approach provides valuable information for implementing proper and diverse adaptation measures in different European regions. KEY WORDS: Vitis vinifera L. · Viticultural zoning · Bioclimatic indices · Regional climate change · Europe · COSMO-CLM Resale or republication not permitted without written consent of the publisherClim Res 43: [163][164][165][166][167][168][169][170][171][172][173][174][175][176][177] 2010 perennial organs (roots, trunk and canes) for following-year growth (Bates et al. 2002, Field et al. 2009. A 10°C base temperature is the minimum threshold considered necessary for grapevines to initiate their growing cycle (Amerine & Winkler 1944, Winkler et al. 1974. Conversely, extreme heat (e.g. temperatures above 40 to 45°C) may irreversibly impair some physiological processes (Berry & Björkman 1980), thus leading to poor grape yields and quality (Kliewer 1977, Mullins et al. 1992. Furthermore, annual precipitation and its seasonal distribution are also critical. High soil moisture is needed during budburst and shoot and inflorescence development, followed by dry and stable atmospheric conditions from flowering to berry ripening , Nemani et al. 2001, Jones et al. 2005a, Ramos et al. 2008). Due to these selective climatic needs, most wine-producing areas are geographically located within the latitude range of 30 to 50°over the northern hemisphere (e.g. Spellman 1999, Hidalgo 2002, where the warm temperate climates (Kottek et al. 2006), including the Mediterranean type, are typically found. These climates roughly correspond to the belt limited by the 10 to 20°C ann...

Optimum climate conditions for grapevine growth are limited geographically and may be further challenged by a changing climate. Due to the importance of the winemaking sector in Europe, the assessment of future scenarios for European viticulture is of foremost relevance. A 16-member ensemble of model transient experiments (generated by the ENSEMBLES project) under a greenhouse gas emission scenario and for two future periods (2011-2040 and 2041-2070) is used in assessing climate change projections for six viticultural zoning indices. After model data calibration/validation using an observational gridded daily dataset, changes in their ensemble means and inter-annual variability are discussed, also taking into account the model uncertainties. Over southern Europe, the projected warming combined with severe dryness in the growing season is expected to have detrimental impacts on the grapevine development and wine quality, requiring measures to cope with heat and water stress. Furthermore, the expected warming and the maintenance of moderately wet growing seasons over most of the central European winemaking regions may require a selection of new grapevine varieties, as well as an enhancement of pest/disease control. New winemaking regions may arise over northern Europe and high altitude areas, when considering climatic factors only. An enhanced inter-annual variability is also projected over most of Europe. All these future changes pose new challenges for the European winemaking sector.