Viticulture is a key socio-economic sector in Europe. Owing to the strong sensitivity of grapevines to atmospheric factors, climate change may represent an important challenge for this sector. This study analyses viticultural suitability, yield, phenology, and water and nitrogen stress indices in Europe, for present climates (1980-2005) and future (2041-2070) climate change scenarios (RCP4.5 and 8.5). The STICS crop model is coupled with climate, soil and terrain databases, also taking into account CO physiological effects, and simulations are validated against observational data sets. A clear agreement between simulated and observed phenology, leaf area index, yield and water and nitrogen stress indices, including the spatial differences throughout Europe, is shown. The projected changes highlight an extension of the climatic suitability for grapevines up to 55°N, which may represent the emergence of new winemaking regions. Despite strong regional heterogeneity, mean phenological timings (budburst, flowering, veraison and harvest) are projected to undergo significant advancements (e.g. budburst/harvest can be >1 month earlier), with implications also in the corresponding phenophase intervals. Enhanced dryness throughout Europe is also projected, with severe water stress over several regions in southern regions (e.g. southern Iberia and Italy), locally reducing yield and leaf area. Increased atmospheric CO partially offsets dryness effects, promoting yield and leaf area index increases in central/northern Europe. Future biomass changes may lead to modifications in nitrogen demands, with higher stress in northern/central Europe and weaker stress in southern Europe. These findings are critical decision support systems for stakeholders from the European winemaking sector.

No abstract

Aim:The winemaking sector in Portugal is of major socio-economic relevance, significantly contributing to the national exports and sustaining many wine-related activities, including oenotourism. Portuguese viticultural regions present a wide range of edaphoclimatic conditions with remarkable regional specificities, thus contributing to the individuality of their wines. Owing to the strong influence of climate and weather factors on grapevines, climate change may drive significant impacts on Portuguese viticulture. Methods and results:Climatic projections for the next decades in Portugal highlight an overall warming and drying trend of the grapevine growing season, potentially resulting in modifications in phenology, growth, development, yields and eventually wine characteristics and typicity. Furthermore, the current viticultural suitability of each region is projected to undergo significant changes, suggesting a reshaping of the optimal conditions for viticulture throughout the country. In order to sustain high quality levels and affordable yield regularity, cost-effective, appropriate and timely adaptation measures must be implemented by the sector. Conclusion:The most recent scientific studies covering the potential impacts of climate change on Portuguese viticulture are herein presented.Significance and impact of the study: Possible adaptation measures against these threats are also discussed, foreseeing their integration into decision support systems by stakeholders and decision-makers.

<p class="Abstract" style="text-align: justify;"><strong>Aim:</strong> The winemaking sector in Portugal is of major socio-economic relevance, significantly contributing to the national exports and sustaining many wine-related activities, including oenotourism. Portuguese viticultural regions present a wide range of edaphoclimatic conditions with remarkable regional specificities, thus contributing to the individuality of their wines. Owing to the strong influence of climate and weather factors on grapevines, climate change may drive significant impacts on Portuguese viticulture.</p><p class="Abstract" style="text-align: justify;"><strong>Methods and results:</strong> Climatic projections for the next decades in Portugal highlight an overall warming and drying trend of the grapevine growing season, potentially resulting in modifications in phenology, growth, development, yields and eventually wine characteristics and typicity. Furthermore, the current viticultural suitability of each region is projected to undergo significant changes, suggesting a reshaping of the optimal conditions for viticulture throughout the country. In order to sustain high quality levels and affordable yield regularity, cost-effective, appropriate and timely adaptation measures must be implemented by the sector.</p><p class="Abstract" style="text-align: justify;"><strong>Conclusion:</strong> The most recent scientific studies covering the potential impacts of climate change on Portuguese viticulture are herein presented.</p><p class="Abstract" style="text-align: justify;"><strong>Significance and impact of the study:</strong> Possible adaptation measures against these threats are also discussed, foreseeing their integration into decision support systems by stakeholders and decision-makers.</p>

No abstract