Evaluation of the Korea Meteorological Administration Advanced Community Earth-System model (K-ACE)

Lee, Johan; Kim, Jisun; Sun, Min-Ah; Kim, Byeong-Hyeon; Moon, Hye-Jin; Sung, Hyun Min; Kim, Jinwon; Byun, Young‐Hwa

doi:10.1007/s13143-019-00144-7

Cited by 73 publications

(23 citation statements)

References 55 publications

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“…There is large positive λCS of K-ACE in high latitude areas and high-altitude areas (Figure 5g-i), reflecting the warming effect of sea-ice melting [7]. These have been consistent with reduced clear-sky albedo due to a loss of sea-ice and snow cover with increased global temperature [34].…”

Section: Clear-sky Feedbacksupporting

confidence: 62%

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Climate Sensitivity and Feedback of a New Coupled Model (K-ACE) to Idealized CO2 Forcing

et al. 2020

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Climate sensitivity and feedback processes are important for understanding Earth’s system response to increased CO2 concentration in the atmosphere. Many modelling groups that contribute to Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) have reported a larger equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) with their models compared to CMIP5 models. This consistent result is also found in the Korea Meteorological Administration Advanced Community Earth System model (K-ACE). Idealized climate simulation is conducted as an entry card for CMIP6 to understand Earth’s system response in new coupled models and compared to CMIP5 models. The ECS in the K-ACE is 4.83 K, which is higher than the range (2.1–4.7 K) of CMIP5 models in sensitivity to CO2 change and higher bound (1.8–5.6 K) of CMIP6 models. The radiative feedback consists of clear-sky and cloud radiative feedback. Clear-sky feedback of K-ACE is similar to CMIP5 models whereas cloud feedback of K-ACE is more positive. The result is attributable for strong positive shortwave cloud radiative effect (CRE) feedback associated with reduced low-level cloud cover at mid latitude in both hemispheres. Despite the cancellations in strong negative long wave CRE feedback with the changes in high-level clouds in the tropics, shortwave CRE has a dominant effect in net CRE. Detailed understanding of cloud feedback and cloud properties needs further study.

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Section: Clear-sky Feedbacksupporting

confidence: 62%

“…The K-ACE is a coupled climate model (Atmosphere-Ocean-sea Ice-Land; AOIL), and detailed component models (the number of physical and biogeochemical processes included) with coupling approaches are described in Lee et al [34]. Hence, limited details are given here.…”

Section: Model Experiments and Methodologymentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate Sensitivity and Feedback of a New Coupled Model (K-ACE) to Idealized CO2 Forcing

et al. 2020

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“…The ensemble spread appears to consistently increase with the higher forcing and over time. This suggests that the model response uncertainty increases for stronger responses, an expected result as climate sensitivity -which significantly differs among the models -more strongly influences the model response in higher scenarios and later periods (Lehner et al, 2020). This result appears robust, given the number of models included (between 33 and 39 for Tier 1 experiments).…”

Section: Time Seriesmentioning

confidence: 73%

“…This range can be seen as reflecting the compound effects of model-response uncertainty and some measure of internal variability in the individual model trajectories, but the latter is likely underestimated, given that we are using only one run per model. The use of initial condition ensembles for each of the models would better characterize their respective internal variability (Lehner et al, 2020). Using the 5 %-95 % confidence intervals as ranges, we find that by the end of the 21st century (2081-2100 average, always compared to the 1995-2014 average) global mean temperatures are projected to increase between 2.40 and 5.57 • C for SSP5-8.5, between 1.95 and 4.38 .0, and between 1.27 and 3.00 • C for SSP2-4.5.…”

Section: Time Seriesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate model projections from the Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) of CMIP6

et al. 2021

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Abstract. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) defines and coordinates the main set of future climate projections, based on concentration-driven simulations, within the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6). This paper presents a range of its outcomes by synthesizing results from the participating global coupled Earth system models. We limit our scope to the analysis of strictly geophysical outcomes: mainly global averages and spatial patterns of change for surface air temperature and precipitation. We also compare CMIP6 projections to CMIP5 results, especially for those scenarios that were designed to provide continuity across the CMIP phases, at the same time highlighting important differences in forcing composition, as well as in results. The range of future temperature and precipitation changes by the end of the century (2081–2100) encompassing the Tier 1 experiments based on the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5) and SSP1-1.9 spans a larger range of outcomes compared to CMIP5, due to higher warming (by close to 1.5 ∘C) reached at the upper end of the 5 %–95 % envelope of the highest scenario (SSP5-8.5). This is due to both the wider range of radiative forcing that the new scenarios cover and the higher climate sensitivities in some of the new models compared to their CMIP5 predecessors. Spatial patterns of change for temperature and precipitation averaged over models and scenarios have familiar features, and an analysis of their variations confirms model structural differences to be the dominant source of uncertainty. Models also differ with respect to the size and evolution of internal variability as measured by individual models' initial condition ensemble spreads, according to a set of initial condition ensemble simulations available under SSP3-7.0. These experiments suggest a tendency for internal variability to decrease along the course of the century in this scenario, a result that will benefit from further analysis over a larger set of models. Benefits of mitigation, all else being equal in terms of societal drivers, appear clearly when comparing scenarios developed under the same SSP but to which different degrees of mitigation have been applied. It is also found that a mild overshoot in temperature of a few decades around mid-century, as represented in SSP5-3.4OS, does not affect the end outcome of temperature and precipitation changes by 2100, which return to the same levels as those reached by the gradually increasing SSP4-3.4 (not erasing the possibility, however, that other aspects of the system may not be as easily reversible). Central estimates of the time at which the ensemble means of the different scenarios reach a given warming level might be biased by the inclusion of models that have shown faster warming in the historical period than the observed. Those estimates show all scenarios reaching 1.5 ∘C of warming compared to the 1850–1900 baseline in the second half of the current decade, with the time span between slow and fast warming covering between 20 and 27 years from present. The warming level of 2 ∘C of warming is reached as early as 2039 by the ensemble mean under SSP5-8.5 but as late as the mid-2060s under SSP1-2.6. The highest warming level considered (5 ∘C) is reached by the ensemble mean only under SSP5-8.5 and not until the mid-2090s.

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“…This data set is widely used in previous studies for global SST changes and has been used to supply information for the ocean surface in other SST reanalysis data sets. Considering this, HadISST data has been made globally complete [53].…”

Section: Observation and Cmip6 Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Future Changes in the Global and Regional Sea Level Rise and Sea Surface Temperature Based on CMIP6 Models

et al. 2021

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Estimating future sea level rise (SLR) and sea surface temperature (SST) is essential to implement mitigation and adaptation options within a sustainable development framework. This study estimates regional SLR and SST changes around the Korean peninsula. Two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5) scenarios and nine Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) model simulations are used to estimate the changes in SLR and SST. At the end of the 21st century, global SLR is expected to be 0.28 m (0.17–0.38 m) and 0.65 m (0.52–0.78 m) for SSP 1–2.6 and SSP5-8.5, respectively. Regional change around the Korean peninsula (0.25 m (0.15–0.35 m; SSP1-2.6) and 0.63 m (0.50–0.76 m; SSP5-8.5)) is similar with global SLR. The discrepancy between global and regional changes is distinct in SST warming rather than SLR. For SSP5-8.5, SST around the Korean peninsula projects is to rise from 0.49 °C to 0.59 °C per decade, which is larger than the global SST trend (0.39 °C per decade). Considering this, the difference of regional SST change is related to the local ocean current change, such as the Kuroshio Current. Additionally, ocean thermal expansion and glacier melting are major contributors to SLR, and the contribution rates of glacier melting increase in higher emission scenarios.

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Evaluation of the Korea Meteorological Administration Advanced Community Earth-System model (K-ACE)

Cited by 73 publications

References 55 publications

Climate Sensitivity and Feedback of a New Coupled Model (K-ACE) to Idealized CO2 Forcing

Climate Sensitivity and Feedback of a New Coupled Model (K-ACE) to Idealized CO2 Forcing

Climate model projections from the Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) of CMIP6

Future Changes in the Global and Regional Sea Level Rise and Sea Surface Temperature Based on CMIP6 Models

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