Evaluation of the Performance of CMIP6 HighResMIP on West African Precipitation

Ajibola, Felix Olabamiji; Zhou, Botao; Gnitou, Gnim Tchalim; Onyejuruwa, Anselem

doi:10.3390/atmos11101053

Cited by 55 publications

(30 citation statements)

References 36 publications

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“…The spatial patterns of ET for the historical and future climate were examined to provide a better understanding of their seasonality and quantify their relative spatial distribution in the future period (2020-2099) across the continent. We noted that the simulated ET amounts were maximum over the equatorial regions (between 5 • S and 5 • N); this is consistent with the P seasonality in West Africa [74,75] and the equatorial region [27,76]. The amount reduced moving towards the humid-tropical region, the Sahelian region, and, finally, in the arid region of the Sahara Desert (Figure 4a).…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 79%

Future Changes in Simulated Evapotranspiration across Continental Africa Based on CMIP6 CNRM-CM6

Nooni

Hagan

Wang

et al. 2021

IJERPH

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The main goal of this study was to assess the interannual variations and spatial patterns of projected changes in simulated evapotranspiration (ET) in the 21st century over continental Africa based on the latest Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and the Representative Concentration Pathways (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5) provided by the France Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques (CNRM-CM) model in the Sixth Phase of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) framework. The projected spatial and temporal changes were computed for three time slices: 2020–2039 (near future), 2040–2069 (mid-century), and 2080–2099 (end-of-the-century), relative to the baseline period (1995–2014). The results show that the spatial pattern of the projected ET was not uniform and varied across the climate region and under the SSP-RCPs scenarios. Although the trends varied, they were statistically significant for all SSP-RCPs. The SSP5-8.5 and SSP3-7.0 projected higher ET seasonality than SSP1-2.6 and SSP2-4.5. In general, we suggest the need for modelers and forecasters to pay more attention to changes in the simulated ET and their impact on extreme events. The findings provide useful information for water resources managers to develop specific measures to mitigate extreme events in the regions most affected by possible changes in the region’s climate. However, readers are advised to treat the results with caution as they are based on a single GCM model. Further research on multi-model ensembles (as more models’ outputs become available) and possible key drivers may provide additional information on CMIP6 ET projections in the region.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 79%

Future Changes in Simulated Evapotranspiration across Continental Africa Based on CMIP6 CNRM-CM6

Nooni

Hagan

Wang

et al. 2021

IJERPH

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“…Other experiments available to study climate change projections over Africa include the High-Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP, Haarsma et al 2016), which consists of a small subset of CMIP6 GCMs run globally at high resolution (between 0.28° and 1°). However, future projections from HighResMIP are available only until 2050 and, to the best of our knowledge, results for Africa are described only in Ajibola et al (2020) who evaluated the performance of HighResMIP models in representing historical climate over West Africa.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Projected future daily characteristics of African precipitation based on global (CMIP5, CMIP6) and regional (CORDEX, CORDEX-CORE) climate models

et al. 2021

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We provide an assessment of future daily characteristics of African precipitation by explicitly comparing the results of large ensembles of global (CMIP5, CMIP6) and regional (CORDEX, CORE) climate models, specifically highlighting the similarities and inconsistencies between them. Results for seasonal mean precipitation are not always consistent amongst ensembles: in particular, global models tend to project a wetter future compared to regional models, especially over the Eastern Sahel, Central and East Africa. However, results for other precipitation characteristics are more consistent. In general, all ensembles project an increase in maximum precipitation intensity during the wet season over all regions and emission scenarios (except the West Sahel for CORE) and a decrease in precipitation frequency (under the Representative Concentration Pathways RCP8.5) especially over the West Sahel, the Atlas region, southern central Africa, East Africa and southern Africa. Depending on the season, the length of dry spells is projected to increase consistently by all ensembles and for most (if not all) models over southern Africa, the Ethiopian highlands and the Atlas region. Discrepancies exist between global and regional models on the projected change in precipitation characteristics over specific regions and seasons. For instance, over the Eastern Sahel in July–August most global models show an increase in precipitation frequency but regional models project a robust decrease. Global and regional models also project an opposite sign in the change of the length of dry spells. CORE results show a marked drying over the regions affected by the West Africa monsoon throughout the year, accompanied by a decrease in mean precipitation intensity between May and July that is not present in the other ensembles. This enhanced drying may be related to specific physical mechanisms that are better resolved by the higher resolution models and highlights the importance of a process-based evaluation of the mechanisms controlling precipitation over the region.

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“…In particular, the extreme precipitation and temperature events have severe socio-economic impacts in terms of their frequency and intensity (Almazroui, 2020a, b). Some studies (e.g., Abiodun et al 2016;Ajibola et al 2020;Almazroui et al 2020;James et al 2018;Klutse et al 2016a) have used either global climate models (GCMs) and regional climate models (RCMs) to investigate changes in the different attributes of the precipitation such as the frequency, intensity, spatial extent, duration, and timing of these weather and climate events. With growing fluctuations in precipitation regimes, the increasing demand for water due to population growth would be in severe contrast to the low water supply (Smith and Katz, 2013;Trenberth et al 2014).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Climatic Analysis of Summer Monsoon Extreme Precipitation Events over West Africa in CMIP6 Simulations

et al. 2021

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We evaluate the capability of 21 models from the new state-of-the-art Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 6 (CMIP6) in the representation of present-day precipitation characteristics and extremes along with their statistics in simulating daily precipitation during the West African Monsoon (WAM) period (June–September). The study uses a set of standard extreme precipitation indices as defined by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices constructed using CMIP6 models and observational datasets for comparison. Three observations; Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP), Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station data (CHIRPS), and Tropical Applications of Meteorology using SATellite and ground-based observation (TAMSAT) datasets are used for the validation of the model simulations. The results show that observed datasets present nearly the same spatial pattern but discrepancies in the magnitude of rainfall characteristics. The models show substantial discrepancies in comparison with the observations and among themselves. A number of the models depict the pattern of rainfall intensity as observed but some models overestimate the pattern over the coastal parts (FGOALS-f3-L and GFDL-ESM4) and western part (FGOALS-f3-L) of West Africa. All model simulations explicitly show the pattern of wet days but with large discrepancies in their frequencies. On extreme rainfall, half of the models express more intense extremes in the 95th percentiles while the other half simulate less intense extremes. All the models overestimate the mean maximum wet spell length except FGOALS-f3-L. The spatial patterns of the mean maximum dry spell length show a good general agreement across the different models, and the observations except for four models that show an overestimation in the Sahara subregion. INM-CM4-8 and INM-CM5-0 display smaller discrepancies from their long-term average rainfall characteristics, in terms of extreme rainfall estimates than the other CMIP6 datasets. For the frequency of heavy rainfall, TaiESM1 and IPSL-CMGA-LR perform better when compared with observational datasets. MIROC6 and GFDL-ESM4 displayed the largest error in representing the frequency of heavy rainfall and 95th percentile extremes, and therefore, cannot be reliable. The study has assessed how rainfall extremes are captured in both observation and the models. Though there are some discrepancies, it gives room for improvement of the models in the next version of CMIP.

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Evaluation of the Performance of CMIP6 HighResMIP on West African Precipitation

Cited by 55 publications

References 36 publications

Future Changes in Simulated Evapotranspiration across Continental Africa Based on CMIP6 CNRM-CM6

Future Changes in Simulated Evapotranspiration across Continental Africa Based on CMIP6 CNRM-CM6

Projected future daily characteristics of African precipitation based on global (CMIP5, CMIP6) and regional (CORDEX, CORDEX-CORE) climate models

The Climatic Analysis of Summer Monsoon Extreme Precipitation Events over West Africa in CMIP6 Simulations

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