Evaluation of the seismic site response in randomized velocity profiles using a statistical model with Monte Carlo simulations

Sun, Qiangqiang; Guo, Xingwu; Dias, Daniel

doi:10.1016/j.compgeo.2020.103442

Cited by 25 publications

(9 citation statements)

References 42 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…These uncertainties will eventually lead to the inaccuracy of site response analysis and earthquake disaster prediction. In general, the sources of uncertainty in dynamic site response can be divided into three categories, firstly, the uncertainties of basic soil parameters, for example, shear wave velocity, dynamic shear modulus, and damping ratio 5–14 . Secondly, uncertainties brought by numerical modeling, including numerical analysis software, calculation methods, and nonlinear constitutive models that describe the soil behavior 15–18 .…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Among them, a number of researchers have reported shear wave velocity is the leading cause of the uncertainty in site response. Li et al 10 investigated the effects of soil parameter uncertainty and concluded that the variability of ground motion is more sensitive to the discontinuities in the velocity profile especially the soil layer near the surface; Tran et al 21 tested the influences of soil properties such as material degradation, shear wave velocity, and density of soil, especially, they compared the variability in Vs from the Toro model and the log-normal distribution model in Sas and AF for different periods; Sun et al 14 used a real site in Italy to evaluate the possible impact of the uncertainty in shear wave velocity on the ground motion prediction, and proved that the uncertainty in predicted ground motion can be reduced by declining the variation of shear wave velocity. Liu et al 11 implemented a Response Surface Method surrogate model to evaluate the variation in dynamic site response due to the uncertainty of input parameters and found that both the shear wave velocity and input ground motion govern the uncertainty propagation.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Uncertainty propagation of soil property in dynamic site response under different site conditions

Liu

Chen

Juang

et al. 2023

Num Anal Meth Geomechanics

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

It has been recognized that the soil profile and the associated parameters are usually not known with certainty in probabilistic seismic hazard analysis, however, little is known about the influence of site conditions on the propagation of uncertainty. This work aims to analyze and quantify the propagation of soil property uncertainties in site response analysis under different site conditions using a recently proposed DCZ constitutive model. Sensitivity analysis is performed to determine the most important parameter, which is regarded as a random variable in the subsequent uncertainty analysis. A Monte Carlo simulation procedure is applied to quantify the uncertainty propagation caused by the random variable.Detailed case studies involving multiple site conditions are presented to quantify the impacts of soil property variability under different site conditions in site responses. This study has found that variation in site response strongly depends on the shear wave velocity compared to other parameters. For softer soil, the PGA values at the ground surface show more dispersion (i.e., uncertainties) compared to stiffer soil. This indicates that for improving the accuracy of site response analysis and earthquake disaster prediction, it is necessary to operate probabilistic dynamic site response analysis rather than deterministic analysis, especially for soft soil.

show abstract

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Uncertainty propagation of soil property in dynamic site response under different site conditions

Liu

Chen

Juang

et al. 2023

Num Anal Meth Geomechanics

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…By capturing the linear elastic response of the Turkey Flat site, they demonstrated the significant contribution of small-strain soil properties to site response variability. Additional work has been published specifically examining the effects of soil parameter uncertainty on ground response variability (Andrade and Borja, 2006; Barani et al, 2013; Bazzurro and Cornell, 2004; Boaga et al, 2011; Falcone et al, 2020; Guzel et al, 2020; Li, 2014; Nour et al, 2003; Sun et al, 2020; Ulmer et al, 2021).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Estimating epistemic uncertainty in soil parameters for nonlinear site response analyses: Introducing the Latin Hypercube Sampling technique

et al. 2022

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

This study quantifies the effects of epistemic uncertainty in soil parameters on nonlinear (NL) site response analysis (SRA) results, validated against the data recorded at a well-instrumented geotechnical downhole array located in Japan. To this end, a one-dimensional soil column model of the Service Hall Array (SHA) near the Kashiwazaki-Kariwa Nuclear Power Plant (KKNPP) is developed using the finite element (FE) program LS-DYNA. The dynamic stress–strain relationship is characterized by a modified two-stage hyperbolic (MTH) NL backbone curve formulation capable of capturing soil behavior at both small- and large-shear strains. The model is then validated against the ground motion recordings to capture the model bias. The uncertainties associated with the shear-wave velocity profile (a small-strain soil property) and soil shear strength (a large-strain soil property) are incorporated in NL SRA to quantify their separate and joint randomization effects on the results. This study proposes using the Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS) method as an efficient alternative to commonly used methods, such as Standard Monte Carlo (SMC), to account for uncertainty propagation in such reliability analysis. Both low-intensity and design-level records from the recordings at the SHA are applied to study the contribution of the small- and large-strain NL dynamic soil properties. Results from 46,200 NL FE analyses (23,100 per input motion) are presented. Measured and predicted site response, using recorded ground motions at this downhole array, is compared to assess the significance of soil parameter uncertainty on the observed ground motion dispersions. It is demonstrated that increasing the number of soft realizations and implementing higher level earthquake intensity lead to higher ground motion dispersion. Unlike past studies in randomization of Vs profiles with the SMC method, the LHS method is shown to have no significant effect on the predicted median surface response spectra and amplification factors (AFs) for this case study.

show abstract

“…In the literature, several studies can be found in which the site response is analyzed in areas around the world, based on these empirical techniques and numerical models [4][5][6][7][8]. The study of this phenomenon remains current and it is an important issue to be considered in the estimation of seismic risk and damage prevention, even in areas of low seismicity [9].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Site Response Evaluation in the Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt Based on HVSR from Ambient Noise and Regional Seismicity

et al. 2021

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt (TMVB), located in central Mexico, is an area for which low to moderate seismic risk is considered. This is based on the limited instrumental data available, even though large historical earthquakes have damaged some urban centers in the past. However, site effects is an aspect that must be considered in estimating risk, because there are some instances of important amplifications that have been documented with serious effects. In this work, ambient noise and earthquake records from 90 seismic permanent and temporary stations are used to analyze site response in the TMVB. The results obtained show a heterogeneous range in the value of the fundamental frequency. When possible, a comparison was made of the results obtained from ambient noise and earthquake records. In almost all these comparisons, no significant differences were observed in terms of the fundamental frequency. However, there were some stations with a flat average HVSR ambient noise curve that contradicted earthquake data results, which showed peaks at some frequencies. Our results are a first step towards categorizing the different site responses in the TMVB but in order to provide finer details, it is necessary to improve the actual monitoring conditions.

show abstract

Evaluation of the seismic site response in randomized velocity profiles using a statistical model with Monte Carlo simulations

Cited by 25 publications

References 42 publications

Uncertainty propagation of soil property in dynamic site response under different site conditions

Uncertainty propagation of soil property in dynamic site response under different site conditions

Estimating epistemic uncertainty in soil parameters for nonlinear site response analyses: Introducing the Latin Hypercube Sampling technique

Site Response Evaluation in the Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt Based on HVSR from Ambient Noise and Regional Seismicity

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About