A mathematical model is described to predict microprocessor fault tolerance under radiation. The model is empirically trained by combining data from simulated faultinjection campaigns, and radiation experiments, both with protons (at the CNA facilities, Seville, Spain) and with neutrons (at the LANSCE Weapons Neutron Research facility at Los Alamos, USA). The sensitivity to soft errors of different blocks of commercial processors is identified to estimate the reliability of a set of programs that had previously been optimized, hardened, or both. The results showed a standard error under 0.1, in the case of the ARM processor, and 0.12, in the case of the MSP430 microcontroller.