Evaluation of Total Fertility Rate (TFR) North Sumatera Province, 2017 – 2019

Abstract

This study aims to look at evaluating fertility increases from factors that affect fertility. The data processed and presented in this paper constitutes RPJMN Indicator Survey and the Program Performance and Accountability Survey (SKAP) of the North Sumatra Province BKKBN from 2017 to 2019. The target population of this survey is households, women of childbearing age 15 to 49 years, families and unmarried adolescents aged 15 to 24 years in selected clusters in the province. The sampling design used was stratified multistage sampling and for the province of North Sumatra the number of selected clusters was 78 clusters spread across 33 regencies and cities. Each cluster is listed (enumerated) and 35 eligible households are selected using systematic random sampling techniques to retrieve data. The SRPJMN/ SKAP sample target in North Sumatra Province covers 2,730 households. Information on fertility rates in this survey is based on the number of births collected from all women aged 15-49 years. The results are the increase of number TFR until 20.3% in three years, the number of ASFR also increase every year. Namely first married in the age range of 15-17 years (60%) in three years. And it also find the number of using contraception In the last 3 years (2017 - 2019) for the Province of North Sumatra, the use of a FP method / device has increased from 49.42% in 2017 to 56.25% in 2019.

Fertility in North Sumatera: Why is it not declining?

“…Theoretically, the direct factor of fertility is influenced by several indirect factors, including social, demographic, economic and cultural factors. North Sumatra with its Batak ethnicity is known as one of the regions in Indonesia that holds tightly to patrilineal culture (paternal lineage), meaning that the presence of sons is an important thing in the family (Gultom, 2017) Batak tribal communities, in terms of the number and sex of children, greatly affect the fertility rate in North Sumatra (Sitorus, 2020). Figure 3 shows the change in fertility measures in North Sumatra based on the IDHS results in 2002/03 and IDHS in 2017.…”

“…However, the impact is less significant for the decrease in TFR. This is likely closely related to the influence of other factors such as cultural factors in the local community regarding the preference for the number and sex of children (Samosir et al, 2018;Sitorus, 2020). In this case, the possibility of using contraception is more intended to space births and not to limit births.…”

“…This phenomenon is associated with low long-term contraceptive use and high rates of contraceptive withdrawal (Wilonoyudho and Prajanti, 2018). The results of previous research indicate that sociocultural factors in North Sumatra Province greatly influence the fertility preferences of the people (Sitorus, 2020). The Batak tribe in North Sumatra Province is known for its community customs which regulate the path of descent from the father's side (patrilineal).…”