Évaluer la contribution des femmes étrangères à la fécondité du moment en Grèce, 2004-2012

Abstract

L’objectif de l’étude est d’évaluer la contribution de la fécondité des femmes étrangères à la fécondité générale à partir du cas grec entre 2004 et 2012. Plus précisément, il s’agit d’estimer la contribution respective du comportement de fécondité des femmes étrangères et de leur part dans chaque groupe d’âges de la population féminine, à la fécondité de la Grèce. Les taux de fécondité par âge et les indices conjoncturels de fécondité (ICF) sont calculés pour les femmes étrangères et les natives (femmes nées en Grèce de parents grecs) à partir d’estimations de la population et des statistiques de l’état civil des naissances. La fécondité des étrangères est largement supérieure à celle des natives pour toutes les années, mais les tendances sont similaires pour les deux groupes. Au cours de la période considérée, l’effet combiné de la fécondité des étrangères et de la part qu’elles représentent dans la population entraîne une hausse de l’ICF comprise entre 0,06 (+ 4,4 %) et 0,14 enfant par femme (+ 9,3 %). La contribution des étrangères à l’évolution dans le temps de la fécondité générale est en revanche plus marquée. Au total, les effets de composition ne jouent qu’un rôle mineur et le principal facteur à l’œuvre dans les variations de la fécondité est le comportement reproductif.

On the multifaceted impact of migration on the fertility of receiving countries: Methodological insights and contemporary evidence for Europe, the United States, and Australia

“…At the same time, the failure to analyze the contribution of migrants to childbearing as a multifaceted issue can, at first glance, lead to some contradictory results. Thus, the small contribution of migration to increases in a country's total fertility rate (TFR), which has been documented in previous studies (Camarota and Zeigler 2015;Basten, Sobotka, and Zeman 2013;Lanzieri 2013a;ONS 2016;Sobotka 2008;Sobotka et al 2015;Swicegood et al 2004;Swicegood, Sobczak, and Ishizawa 2006;Toulemon, Pailhé, and Rossier 2008), contrasts with the substantial contribution of migration to the total number of births (Eurostat 2015;Livingston 2016;Livingston and Cohn 2012;Sobotka 2008) and to trends over time in the overall level of fertility (Bagavos, Verropoulou, and Tsimbos 2018;Giannantoni and Strozza 2015). Similarly, while the percentages of births to migrants are rising, the effects of migration on the total number of births appear to be limited (Tromans, Natamba, and Jefferies 2009).…”

“…To deal with this problem, we use a mixed standardization and decomposition approach. This approach, which is based on previous studies (Bagavos, Verropoulou, and Tsimbos 2018;Bagavos and Tragaki 2017;Gabrielli, Paterno, and Strozza 2007;Giannantoni and Strozza 2015), allows us to assess how shifts in fertility and population by migration status affect the trends over time in the overall TFR and in the total number of births. It is an 'all other things remaining equal' approach, which, in line with common forms of standardization analysis, quantifies an expected change in the overall level of TFR or in the total number of births.…”

Toward a ‘Migrant Trap’? Local Development, Urban Sustainability, Sociodemographic Inequalities, and the Economic Decline in a Mediterranean Metropolis

“…Experiencing degraded housing provision, unemployment, and poverty, as well as bureaucratic constraints to relocation outside Greece, the extra-communitarian population segment was forced to live in a sort of 'migrant trap' for years (Kaika 2012;Souliotis 2013;Panori et al 2019). Moreover, assuming the inherent contribution of foreign population to overall fertility (Rontos 2007;Bagavos et al 2018;Tragaki and Bagavos 2019), the decline in immigration flows-combined with the reduction in birth rates (both from native and nonnative mothers) between 2004 and 2020-delineated a possibly unsustainable demographic context (Maloutas and Spyrellis 2019) supposed to accelerate metropolitan shrinkage if not regulated with specific policies supporting childhood (Gavalas et al 2014).…”

“…Short-haul residential mobility, internal movements (e.g., rural-to-urban), and foreigners' immigration to Greece have been taken as representative of more general population trends in Southern Europe, possibly as a consequence of economic stagnation (Dalakoglou 2013;Souliotis 2013;Morelli et al 2014). Having experienced the greatest impact of the 2007 recession in Europe, Greece-a traditional emigration country up to the 1970s-was an important hotspot for international migration in the 1990s and the 2000s (Maloutas 2007;Martinez-Fernandez et al 2012;Gavalas et al 2014;Bagavos et al 2018).…”

Did COVID-19 enlarge spatial disparities in population dynamics? A comparative, multivariate approach for Italy

“…comparing values along their spatial distribution over Italy, namely 110 values associated with each Italian province (e.g. Colantoni et al 2015 ; Bagavos et al 2018 ; Ciommi et al 2018 ). The two time intervals (i.e.…”