“…The main findings of our data analysis exercise suggest that the progressive increase in the number of CL cases was already evident between 2007 and 2010. The surge observed since the onset of the war, which led to doubling the number of cases between 2010 and 2018, therefore adds to a progressively increasing trend that was already in place and that fits into a pattern observed in other Middle Eastern countries, whereby cyclic increases and decreases in the number of cases occurs every 7 to 10 years [38][39]; with regard to the Aleppo governorate, for example, a progressive increase in incidence of CL had been documented since the mid-1980s [2,40], in spite of extensive vector control efforts [41]. The significant increase in CL incidence between 2010 and 2011 cannot be attributed to the conflict, due to its still limited impact on infrastructures and populations; in our view it is largely due to the ongoing, increasing epidemiological trend.…”