Evidence for an increase in trisomy 21 (Down syndrome) in Europe after the Chernobyl reactor accident

Abstract

The objective of this study is to investigate the prevalence of Down syndrome (DS) associated with Chernobyl fallout. Maternal age-adjusted DS data and corresponding live birth data from the following seven European countries or regions were analyzed: Bavaria and West Berlin in Germany, Belarus, Hungary, the Lothian Region of Scotland, North West England, and Sweden from 1981 to 1992. To assess the underlying time trends in the DS occurrence, and to investigate whether there have been significant changes in the trend functions after Chernobyl, we applied logistic regression allowing for peaks and jumps from January 1987 onward. The majority of the trisomy 21 cases of the previously reported, highly significant January 1987 clusters in Belarus and West Berlin were conceived when the radioactive clouds with significant amounts of radionuclides with short physical half-lives, especially (131)iodine, passed over these regions. Apart from this, we also observed a significant longer lasting effect in both areas. Moreover, evidence for long-term changes in the DS prevalence in several other European regions is presented and explained by exposure, especially to (137)Cs. In many areas, (137)Cs uptake reached its maximum one year after the Chernobyl accident. Thus, the highest increase in trisomy 21 should be observed in 1987/1988, which is indeed the case. Based on the fact that maternal meiosis is an error prone process, the assumption of a causal relationship between low-dose irradiation and nondisjunction is the most likely explanation for the observed increase in DS after the Chernobyl reactor accident.

Increased sex ratio in Russia and Cuba after Chernobyl: a radiological hypothesis

“…There have been positive epidemiological findings after Chernobyl [16,26,27,47,48]. Therefore, our hypothesis can be tested by scrutinizing Cuban public health statistics for increases after 1986: e.g.…”

“…In addition to lethal factors on the X chromosome, Scholte and Sobels [12] allude to nondisjunction resulting in X0 genotypes, which are non-viable in man and, thus, may also distort the birth sex ratio. As Down syndrome is a well-known consequence of meiotic nondisjunction, evidence of increased nondisjunction across Europe after Chernobyl is obtained from increased Down syndrome prevalence at birth [16]. Except in societies where selective abortion skews the sex ratio [17-19], approximately 104 to 106 boys are born for every 100 girls.…”

Hiroshima to Fukushima

“…The data gathered from Belarus, Bavaria, West Berlin, Sweden, Hungary, northeastern England, and Scotland showed a sudden rise, ca. 20 % increase, in the rate of Down syndrome from 1986 to 1987 (Sperling et al 2012), as seen in Fig. 14.7.…”

“…The trend before the accident seemed to be declining, but the trend after the accident was increasing, as the dotted lines imply. The authors (Sperling et al 2012) believed that this is due to the Chernobyl accident.…”

Psychological Impact of Nuclear Disasters in Children and Adolescents

“…12 Increased rates of trisomy-21 have also been correlated to in-utero radiation exposure in several European countries in the years following Chernobyl. 16,17 …”