Evidence on optimal risk allocation models for Indonesian geothermal projects under PPP contracts

Nur, Suardi; Burton, Bruce; Bergmann, Ariel

doi:10.1016/j.jup.2023.101511

Cited by 6 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 100 publications

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“…Studies showed that geothermal projects are capital-intensive, complex, and sensitive to uncertainty and risks (Dewi et al, 2022;Dewi, Setiawan, and Latief, 2020). For instance, development of a 30 MW condensing type of power capacity could require 7-12 years, with an investment ranging from USD 65-80 million (Monterrosa, 2009). The exploration phase, in particular, entails substantial upfront capital investment, often exceeding USD 5.2 million for a 1 MW geothermal power plant (Dewi et al, 2022).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…A key contributor to hindrances in geothermal energy development in Indonesia is the prevalence of uncertainty factors, including drilling success ratio, delay due to bureaucracy or social factors, electricity pricing, and other non-technical variables. Recent studies have explored aspects of geothermal development, such as investment cost and risk (Dewi et al, 2022), the impact of feed-in tariff on installed capacity (Setiawan et al, 2022), geothermal exergy analysis (Qurrahman et al, 2021), and the risk allocation scheme (Nur, Burton, and Bergmann, 2023). However, there remains a gap in reports addressing the identification and analysis of uncertainty and their significance in achieving the objective of geothermal development.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Uncertainty Analysis of Geothermal Development Projects Using Exploratory System Dynamics Modelling and Analysis Method

Hartono,

Setiawan,

Hidayatno

et al. 2023

IJTech

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This study aimed to analyze uncertainty factors to provide knowledge and information regarding significant obstacles in developing geothermal energy in Indonesia. To achieve this, Exploratory System Dynamics Modelling and Analysis method was adopted. The results showed that four uncertainty factors have significant influence on the achievement of geothermal development in terms of total installed capacity, total revenue, and profit. Delay due to bureaucracy, social acceptance, exploration duration, and exploration permit processing time had 68% influence on total installed capacity and profit. Meanwhile, electricity price had 44% impact on total revenue. In conclusion, focus should be given to policy interventions such as streamlining bureaucratic processes, reducing delays, and shortening processing times, to enhance installed capacity and profit growth in the future.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Uncertainty Analysis of Geothermal Development Projects Using Exploratory System Dynamics Modelling and Analysis Method

Hartono,

Setiawan,

Hidayatno

et al. 2023

IJTech

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“…Issues like irregular power supply interfere with productivity and disrupt people's day-to-day lives. Overcrowded roads and ports obstruct efficient trade and transport, constraining economic advancement and opportunities (Nur et al 2023). Moreover, inferior water and sewage systems lead to unsanitary environments, presenting health threats to local communities.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Implementing Toll Road Infrastructure Financing in Indonesia: Critical Success Factors from the Perspective of Toll Road Companies

Fauzan,

Kuswanto,

Utomo

2023

IJFS

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Having effective and efficient financing is one of the most critical steps in accelerating public infrastructure development, including toll roads. This study aims to identify critical success factors (CSFs) for implementing toll infrastructure financing in Indonesia. Thirty-three CSFs have been identified from the literature review. A Delphi survey was conducted involving a panel of experts in the infrastructure industry. Based on the survey, it is known that the internal rate of return, affordability, investment decisions, commercial banks, financing costs, interest rate risk, control of cash flow, contract scope, and principles of risk transfer are important factors for implementing toll infrastructure financing in Indonesia. This study fills research gaps by developing a CSF model for successful toll road infrastructure financing in Indonesian PPPs, considering private perspectives and aiming to provide insights for investors and enhance understanding of country profiles in developing countries. The focus on toll road implementation in Indonesia contributes to a comprehensive understanding of CSFs for PPPs in the country.

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“…Figure 3: PPP Risk Management [60] Note: The allocation of risk in In PPP project, the extent of risk elimination and reduction depend on ability of each party.The risk allocation in public-private geothermal collaborations in Indonesia was investigated by S. Nur and B. Burton (2023)[33]. The data indicates a distinct trend about the best possible arrangements for risk sharing.…”

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confidence: 99%

Analysis of Public Private Partnership in Transportation Projects and Risk Identification: A Review

2024

IRJMETS

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Public-Private-Partnerships play a vital role in the implementation of wide-ranged projects, such as roads, bridges, or highways, to be accomplished by funding provided by private entities which involves social, economic, political risks, with financial risk being the central theme of this paper. The focus is to explore the strategic schemes implemented by different countries in the case studies which determine a strong co-relation between the success and failure of infrastructure PPP projects with various factors such as traffic, cost, and revenue. The results indicate the nature of risks and uncertainty associated with different types of PPP projects and the careful consideration of financial factor in overcoming the challenges faced in the implementation of strategic models. In conclusion, the significance of financial risk assessment is highlighted and further research and application of predictive modeling in the field of transportation is encouraged.

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Evidence on optimal risk allocation models for Indonesian geothermal projects under PPP contracts

Cited by 6 publications

References 100 publications

Uncertainty Analysis of Geothermal Development Projects Using Exploratory System Dynamics Modelling and Analysis Method

Uncertainty Analysis of Geothermal Development Projects Using Exploratory System Dynamics Modelling and Analysis Method

Implementing Toll Road Infrastructure Financing in Indonesia: Critical Success Factors from the Perspective of Toll Road Companies

Analysis of Public Private Partnership in Transportation Projects and Risk Identification: A Review

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