Evidence or Confidence: What is really monitored during a decision?

Lee, Douglas G.; Pezzulo, Giovanni

doi:10.1101/2021.04.02.438275

Cited by 3 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 94 publications

(213 reference statements)

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“…Metacognition is thought to aid decision-makers in choosing the best option from among alternatives (Desender et al, 2021;Lee, Daunizeau, et al, 2022b;Lee and Daunizeau, 2021;van den Berg et al, 2016). It also is believed that metacognition about choices that have already been made can be beneficial for future decisions of a similar nature (Fleming and Daw, 2017;Yeung and Summerfield, 2012).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This ability is generally referred to as metacognition. Metacognitive assessments of choices are thought to aid in both current (Desender et al, 2021;Lee, Daunizeau, et al, 2022b;Lee and Daunizeau, 2021;van den Berg et al, 2016) and future decisions (Fleming and Daw, 2017;Yeung and Summerfield, 2012). For decisions with objectively correct responses, the degree to which confidence correlates with accuracy provides measures of metacognitive sensitivity and efficiency (Fleming and Lau, 2014).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Value certainty and choice confidence are multidimensional constructs that guide decision-making

Lee

Hare

2023

Cogn Affect Behav Neurosci

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The degree of certainty that decision-makers have about their evaluations of available choice alternatives and their confidence about selecting the subjectively best alternative are important factors that affect current and future value-based choices. Assessments of the alternatives in a given choice set are rarely unidimensional; their values are usually derived from a combination of multiple distinct attributes. For example, the taste, texture, quantity, and nutritional content of a snack food may all be considered when determining whether to consume it. We examined how certainty about the levels of individual attributes of an option relates to certainty about the overall value of that option as a whole and/or to confidence in having chosen the subjectively best available option. We found that certainty and confidence are derived from unequally weighted combinations of attribute certainties rather than simple, equal combinations of all sources of uncertainty. Attributes that matter more in determining choice outcomes also are weighted more in metacognitive evaluations of certainty or confidence. Moreover, we found that the process of deciding between two alternatives leads to refinements in both attribute estimations and the degree of certainty in those estimates. Attributes that are more important in determining choice outcomes are refined more during the decision process in terms of both estimates and certainty. Although certainty and confidence are typically treated as unidimensional, our results indicate that they, like value estimates, are subjective, multidimensional constructs.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Value certainty and choice confidence are multidimensional constructs that guide decision-making

Lee

Hare

2023

Cogn Affect Behav Neurosci

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Metacognition is thought to aid decision-makers in choosing the best option from among alternatives (Desender et al, 2021;Lee, Daunizeau, et al, 2022;Lee & Daunizeau, 2021;van den Berg et al, 2016). It is also believed that metacognition about choices that have already been made can be beneficial for future decisions of a similar nature (Fleming & Daw, 2017;Yeung & Summerfield, 2012).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Metacognitive assessments of choices are thought to aid in both current (Desender et al, 2021;Lee, Daunizeau, et al, 2022;Lee & Daunizeau, 2021;van den Berg et al, 2016) and future decisions (Fleming & Daw, 2017;Yeung & Summerfield, 2012). For decisions with objectively correct responses, the degree to which confidence correlates with accuracy provides measures of metacognitive sensitivity and efficiency (Fleming & Lau, 2014).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Value certainty and choice confidence are multidimensional constructs that guide decision-making

Lee¹,

Hare²

2022

Preprint

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The degree of certainty that decision-makers have about their evaluations of available choice alternatives and their confidence about selecting the subjectively best alternative are important factors that affect current and future value-based choices. Assessments of the alternatives in a given choice set are rarely unidimensional; their values are usually derived from a combination of multiple distinct attributes. For example, the taste, texture, quantity, and nutritional content of a snack food may all be considered when determining whether to consume it. Here, we examined how certainty about the levels of individual attributes of an option relates to certainty about the overall value of that option as a whole and/or to confidence in having chosen the subjectively best available option. We found that certainty and confidence are derived from unequally-weighted combinations of attribute certainties rather than simple, equal combinations of all sources of uncertainty. Attributes that matter more in determining choice outcomes are also weighted more in metacognitive evaluations of certainty or confidence. Moreover, we found that the process of deciding between two alternatives leads to refinements in both attribute estimations and the degree of certainty in those estimates. Attributes that are more important in determining choice outcomes are refined more during the decision process in terms of both estimates and certainty. Although certainty and confidence are typically treated as unidimensional, our results indicate that they, like value estimates, are subjective, multidimensional constructs.

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“…With some minor modifications, this type of model has also simultaneously accounted for the impact of overall set value on choice behavior (Krajbich et al, 2010; Lee & Usher, 2021; Smith & Krajbich, 2019). Even choice confidence can be accounted for by certain variations of sequential sampling model, either as a secondary readout of the evidence accumulation process (see (Calder-Travis et al, 2021)) or as the primary readout itself (Lee, Daunizeau, et al, 2022).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Choice-Induced Preference Change under a Sequential Sampling Model Framework

Lee

Pezzulo

2022

Preprint

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Sequential sampling models of choice, such as the drift-diffusion model (DDM), are frequently fit to empirical data to account for a variety of effects related to choice accuracy/consistency and response time (RT). Sometimes, these models include extensions that can also account for choice confidence. However, no model in this class is able to account for the phenomenon of choice-induced preference change. Studies have reported choice-induced preference change for many decades, and the principle findings are robust: decision-makers tend to rate options higher after they choose them and lower after they reject them. This spreading of alternatives (SoA) in terms of their rated values is fundamentally incompatible with traditional sequential sampling models, which consider the rated values of the options to be stationary throughout choice deliberation. Here, we propose a simple modification of the basic DDM that allows the drift rate to vary across deliberation time depending on which attributes are attended to at which points in time. Critically, the model assumes that initial ratings are based only on the more salient attributes of the individual options, and that more attributes will be considered when decision-makers must choose between options with different salient attributes. We show that this model can account for SoA (in addition to choice consistency and RT), as well as all previously reported relationships between SoA and choice difficulty, attribute disparity, and RT.

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Evidence or Confidence: What is really monitored during a decision?

Cited by 3 publications

References 94 publications

Value certainty and choice confidence are multidimensional constructs that guide decision-making

Value certainty and choice confidence are multidimensional constructs that guide decision-making

Value certainty and choice confidence are multidimensional constructs that guide decision-making

Choice-Induced Preference Change under a Sequential Sampling Model Framework

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