Evolution of the United States Energy System and Related Emissions under Varying Social and Technological Development Paradigms: Plausible Scenarios for Use in Robust Decision Making

Abstract

The energy system is the primary source of air pollution. Thus, evolution of the energy system into the future will affect society's ability to maintain air quality. Anticipating this evolution is difficult because of inherent uncertainty in predicting future energy demand, fuel use, and technology adoption. We apply scenario planning to address this uncertainty, developing four very different visions of the future. Stakeholder engagement suggested that technological progress and social attitudes toward the environment are critical and uncertain factors for determining future emissions. Combining transformative and static assumptions about these factors yields a matrix of four scenarios that encompass a wide range of outcomes. We implement these scenarios in the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency MARKet ALlocation (MARKAL) model. Results suggest that both shifting attitudes and technology transformation may lead to emission reductions relative to the present, even without additional policies. Emission caps, such as the Cross-State Air-Pollution Rule, are most effective at protecting against future emission increases. An important outcome of this work is the scenario-implementation approach, which uses technology-specific discount rates to encourage scenario-specific technology and fuel choices. End-use energy demands are modified to approximate societal changes. This implementation allows the model to respond to perturbations in manners consistent with each scenario.

State-level drivers of future fine particulate matter mortality in the United States

“…Second, population growth not only boosts energy demand but also typically increases population exposure to air pollution. Third, the challenges and opportunities for reducing adverse PM 2.5 health impacts may differ considerably among states, depending on historical energy use patterns (Brown et al 2018), and regional policies (Shi et al 2017), such as the cross-state air pollution rule (CSAPR) (EPA 2011a) which caps electric sector emissions of NO x and SO 2 for 23 states.…”

What is the role of distributed energy resources under scenarios of greenhouse gas reductions? A specific focus on combined heat and power systems in the industrial and commercial sectors

“…One exception is for the industrial sector where end-use demand and levels of CHP use is calibrated to AEO 2015 [41]. Since the official release of the database, researchers around academia, nongovernmental organizations, and federal research laboratories apply and use the model for applications from analysis of policies to technology evaluations [42][43][44][45][46][47][48]. The main contribution of these studies as well as this study is the gathered insights on interactions of energy system components with economy, technological advancements, emissions and policy.…”

Energy and emissions implications of automated vehicles in the U.S. energy system

“…These include assessing the regional air quality impacts associated with climate mitigation options (Rudokas et al, 2015), the energy impacts of internalizing environmental and health damages (Brown et al, 2013, Brown et al, 2017, and the potential emissions impacts of widespread electric vehicle (EV) adoption (Keshavarzmohammadian et al, 2017). The model has also been proven to be a powerful tool for scenario analysis (Brown et al, 2018, Gamas et al, 2015. A retrospective analysis (Lenox and Loughlin, 2017) helps validate the model and highlight limitations.…”