Evolution of vulnerability of communities facing repeated hazards

Reilly, Allison; Guikema, Seth D.; Zhu, Laiyin; Igusa, Takeru

doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0182719

Cited by 18 publications

(10 citation statements)

References 65 publications

(72 reference statements)

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“…Hence, both the actions of individual agents and the public composed by a collection of agents result in the key interfering driving forces for changes in flood risk [88]. Often, the actions of individuals and governments are an adaptation to flooding events [89][90][91][92]. When a flood affects a relevant share of a house or the infrastructure of the floodplain, individuals urge the government to act.…”

Section: Adaptation In Governancementioning

confidence: 99%

Floodplains and Complex Adaptive Systems—Perspectives on Connecting the Dots in Flood Risk Assessment with Coupled Component Models

Zischg

2018

Systems

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Floodplains, as seen from the flood risk management perspective, are composed of co-evolving natural and human systems. Both flood processes (that is, the hazard) and the values at risk (that is, settlements and infrastructure built in hazardous areas) are dynamically changing over time and influence each other. These changes influence future risk pathways. The co-evolution of all of these drivers for changes in flood risk could lead to emergent behavior. Hence, complexity theory and systems science can provide a sound theoretical framework for flood risk management in the 21st century. This review aims at providing an entry point for modelers in flood risk research to consider floodplains as complex adaptive systems. For the systems science community, the actual problems and approaches in the flood risk research community are summarized. Finally, an outlook is given on potential future coupled component modeling approaches that aims at bringing together both disciplines.

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Section: Adaptation In Governancementioning

confidence: 99%

Floodplains and Complex Adaptive Systems—Perspectives on Connecting the Dots in Flood Risk Assessment with Coupled Component Models

Zischg

2018

Systems

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“…This work builds conceptually from Reilly, Guikema et al. (2017), which builds an ABM to explore how homeowners interact with their hazard environment, and how their decisions could impact their risk over time. The current work expands this by considering more complex decision rules grounded in utility theory, by considering different hazard environments, and, central to this work, by considering the role that learning has on the distribution of outcomes.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Individual learning as a driver of changes in community vulnerability under repeated hurricanes and changing climate

2022

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The risks from singular natural hazards such as a hurricane have been extensively investigated in the literature. However, little is understood about how individual and collective responses to repeated hazards change communities and impact their preparation for future events. Individual mitigation actions may drive how a community's resilience evolves under repeated hazards. In this paper, we investigate the effect that learning by homeowners can have on household mitigation decisions and on how this influences a region's vulnerability to natural hazards over time, using hurricanes along the east coast of the United States as our case study. To do this, we build an agentbased model (ABM) to simulate homeowners' adaptation to repeated hurricanes and how this affects the vulnerability of the regional housing stock. Through a case study, we explore how different initial beliefs about the hurricane hazard and how the memory of recent hurricanes could change a community's vulnerability both under current and potential future hurricane scenarios under climate change. In some future hurricane environments, different initial beliefs can result in large differences in the region's long-term vulnerability to hurricanes. We find that when some homeowners mitigate soon after a hurricane-when their memory of the event is the strongest-it can help to substantially decrease the vulnerability of a community.

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“…While it is unlikely that an AMB can meaningfully represent all structural inequities that are present in communities, it can apply assumptions and constraints on each agent that mimic some of the constraints faced by actual members of the community. 7 See Reilly, Guikema, Zhu, and Igusa (2017) for a topical discussion and framework regarding applying ABMs to the problem of repeated hazards in communities.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…77See Reilly, Guikema, Zhu, and Igusa (2017) for a topical discussion and framework regarding applying ABMs to the problem of repeated hazards in communities.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Agent‐Based Models as an Integrating Boundary Object for Interdisciplinary Research

2018

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Many of the most complicated and pressing problems in hazards research require the integration of numerous disciplines. The lack of a common knowledge base, however, often prohibits clear communication and interaction among interdisciplinary researchers, sometimes leading to unsuccessful outcomes. Drawing on experience with several projects and collective expertise that spans multiple disciplines, the authors argue that a promising way to enhance participation and enable communication is to have a common model, or boundary object, that can integrate knowledge from different disciplines. The result is that researchers from different disciplines who use different research methods and approaches can work together toward a shared goal. This article offers four requirements for boundary objects that may enhance hazards research. Based on these requirements, agent-based models have the necessary characteristics to be a boundary object. The article concludes by examining both the value of and the challenges from using agent-based models as the boundary object in interdisciplinary projects.

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Evolution of vulnerability of communities facing repeated hazards

Cited by 18 publications

References 65 publications

Floodplains and Complex Adaptive Systems—Perspectives on Connecting the Dots in Flood Risk Assessment with Coupled Component Models

Floodplains and Complex Adaptive Systems—Perspectives on Connecting the Dots in Flood Risk Assessment with Coupled Component Models

Individual learning as a driver of changes in community vulnerability under repeated hurricanes and changing climate

Agent‐Based Models as an Integrating Boundary Object for Interdisciplinary Research

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