Evolutionary Dynamics of Climate Change Under Collective-Risk Dilemmas

Santos, Francisco C.; Vasconcelos, Vítor V.; Santos, Marta D.; Neves, Pedro; Pacheco, Jorge M.

doi:10.1142/s0218202511400045

Cited by 54 publications

(44 citation statements)

References 66 publications

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“…Our compartmental method neglects some of these aspects by treating the system on a macroscopic scale assuming heterogeneity to be averaged out as a mean-field. Nevertheless, one can go deeper into the microscopic structure by taking a statistical approach and using game theory to model the output of individual interactions, 3,6,30 while the impact of heterogeneity can be investigated directly by studying games on graphs.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Compartmental Modelling of Social Dynamics With Generalised Peer Incidence

Bissell

Caiado

Goldstein

et al. 2014

Math. Models Methods Appl. Sci.

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Publisher's copyright statement:Electronic version of an article published as Mathematical models and methods in applied sciences, 24,4, 2014,10.1142/S0218202513500656 c 2014 World Scientic Publishing Co. http://www.worldscientic.com/worldscinet/m3asAdditional information: Use policyThe full-text may be used and/or reproduced, and given to third parties in any format or medium, without prior permission or charge, for personal research or study, educational, or not-for-prot purposes provided that:• a full bibliographic reference is made to the original source • a link is made to the metadata record in DRO • the full-text is not changed in any way The full-text must not be sold in any format or medium without the formal permission of the copyright holders.Please consult the full DRO policy for further details. A generalised compartmental method for investigating the spread of socially determined behaviour is introduced, and cast in the specific context of societal smoking dynamics with multiple peer influence. We consider how new peer influence terms, acting in both the rate at which smokers abandon their habit, and the rate at which former smokers relapse, can affect the spread of smoking in populations of constant size. In particular, we develop a three-population model (comprising classes of potential, current, and former smokers) governed by multiple incidence transfer rates with linear frequency dependence. Both a deterministic system and its stochastic analogue are discussed: in the first we demonstrate that multiple peer influence not only modifies the number of steady-states and nature of their asymptotic stability, but also introduces a new kind of non-linear 'tipping-point' dynamic; while in the second we use recently compiled smoking statistics from the Northeast of England to investigate the impact of systemic uncertainty on the potential for societal 'tipping'. The generality of our assumptions mean that the results presented here are likely to be relevant to other compartmental models, especially those concerned with the transmission of socially determined behaviours.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Compartmental Modelling of Social Dynamics With Generalised Peer Incidence

Bissell

Caiado

Goldstein

et al. 2014

Math. Models Methods Appl. Sci.

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“…5, and to theoretical tools of game theory. 36,37 Foundations of the kinetic theory approach are reviewed in Ref. 4, where various applications in different fields, such as vehicular traffic, 7,22 social systems, dynamics in networks and migration phenomena 30 are critically analyzed.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A kinetic theory approach to the dynamics of crowd evacuation from bounded domains

Agnelli

Colasuonno

Knopoff

2014

Math. Models Methods Appl. Sci.

106

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A mathematical model of the evacuation of a crowd from bounded domains is derived by a hybrid approach with kinetic and macro-features. Interactions at the micro-scale, which modify the velocity direction, are modeled by using tools of game theory and are transferred to the dynamics of collective behaviors. The velocity modulus is assumed to depend on the local density. The modeling approach considers dynamics caused by interactions of pedestrians not only with all the other pedestrians, but also with the geometry of the domain, such as walls and exits. Interactions with the boundary of the domain are non-local and described by games. Numerical simulations are developed to study evacuation time depending on the size of the exit zone, on the initial distribution of the crowd and on a parameter which weighs the unconscious attraction of the stream and the search for less crowded walking directions.

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“…If not, a catastrophe occurs with certain probability, and all participants lose all the money they kept. While many experimental and theoretical studies have considered different aspects of climate change within this framework [15][16][17][18][19][20][21][22][23][24][25][26][27][28][29], the issue of heterogeneity has only been considered in two experiments. Thus, Tavoni et al [15].…”

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confidence: 99%

Resource heterogeneity leads to unjust effort distribution in climate change mitigation

et al. 2018

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Climate change mitigation is a shared global challenge that involves collective action of a set of individuals with different tendencies to cooperation. However, we lack an understanding of the effect of resource inequality when diverse actors interact together towards a common goal. Here, we report the results of a collective-risk dilemma experiment in which groups of individuals were initially given either equal or unequal endowments. We found that the effort distribution was highly inequitable, with participants with fewer resources contributing significantly more to the public goods than the richer −sometimes twice as much. An unsupervised learning algorithm classified the subjects according to their individual behavior, finding the poorest participants within two “generous clusters” and the richest into a “greedy cluster”. Our results suggest that policies would benefit from educating about fairness and reinforcing climate justice actions addressed to vulnerable people instead of focusing on understanding generic or global climate consequences.

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Evolutionary Dynamics of Climate Change Under Collective-Risk Dilemmas

Cited by 54 publications

References 66 publications

Compartmental Modelling of Social Dynamics With Generalised Peer Incidence

Compartmental Modelling of Social Dynamics With Generalised Peer Incidence

A kinetic theory approach to the dynamics of crowd evacuation from bounded domains

Resource heterogeneity leads to unjust effort distribution in climate change mitigation

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