Evolving tides aggravate nuisance flooding along the U.S. coastline

Li, Sida; Wahl, Thomas; Talke, Stefan A.; Jay, David A.; Orton, Philip M.; Liang, Xinghui; Wang, Guocheng; Liu, Lintao

doi:10.1126/sciadv.abe2412

Cited by 43 publications

(86 citation statements)

References 54 publications

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“…Similar outcomes were found at other test locations and for two different historical epochs. The yearly HTF days related toLi et al (2021) lie within the inferred HTF bounds in 576 out of 684 total cases (i.e., 3 yearly historical epochs × 19 years of the modern control period × 12 gauges).…”

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confidence: 69%

The Effect of Harbor Developments on Future High‐Tide Flooding in Miami, Florida

et al. 2022

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Little is known about the effect of tidal changes on minor flooding in most lagoonal estuaries, often due to a paucity of historical records that predate landscape changes. In this contribution, we recover and apply archival tidal range data to show that the mean tidal range in Miami, Florida, has almost doubled since 1900, from 0.32 to 0.61 m today. A likely cause is the dredging of a ∼15 m deep, 150 m wide harbor entrance channel beginning in the early 20th century, which changed northern Biscayne Bay from a choked inlet system to one with a tidal range close to coastal conditions. To investigate the implications for high‐tide flooding, we develop and validate a tidal‐inference based methodology that leverages estimates of pre‐1900 tidal range to obtain historical tidal predictions and constituents. Next, water level predictions that represent historical and modern water level variations are projected forward in time using different sea level rise scenarios. Results show that the historical increase in tidal range hastened the occurrence of present‐day flooding, and that the total integrated number of days with high‐tide floods in the 2020–2100 period will be approximately O(103) more under present day tides compared to pre‐development conditions. These results suggest that tidal change may be a previously under‐appreciated factor in the increasing prevalence of high‐tide flooding in lagoonal estuaries, and our methods open the door to improving our understanding of other heavily‐altered systems.

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confidence: 69%

The Effect of Harbor Developments on Future High‐Tide Flooding in Miami, Florida

et al. 2022

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“…Such analyses are valid over long timeframes, notwithstanding large changes to tidal patterns, such as those changes described for the United States by Li et al. (2021) and Australia by Palmer et al. (2019).…”

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confidence: 91%

Australian Coastal Flooding Trends and Forcing Factors

et al. 2022

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“…(2018) for and Li et al. (2021) for TA, or Wahl and Chambers (2015) and Rashid et al. (2019) for NTR).…”

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confidence: 99%

Contributions of Different Sea‐Level Processes to High‐Tide Flooding Along the U.S. Coastline

Wahl

Barroso

et al. 2022

JGR Oceans

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Coastal communities across the United States (U.S.) are experiencing an increase in the frequency of high‐tide flooding (HTF). This increase is mainly due to sea‐level rise (SLR), but other factors such as intra‐ to inter‐annual mean sea level variability, tidal anomalies, and non‐tidal residuals also contribute to HTF events. Here we introduce a novel decomposition approach to develop and then analyze a new database of different sea‐level components. Those components represent processes that act on various timescales to contribute to HTF along the U.S. coastline. We find that the relative importance of components to HTF events strongly varies in space and time. Tidal anomalies contribute the most along the west and northeast coasts, where HTF events mostly occur in winter. Non‐tidal residuals are most important along the Gulf of Mexico and mid‐Atlantic coasts, where HTF events mostly occur in fall. We also quantify the minimum number of components that were required to cause HTF events in the past and how this number changed over time. The results highlight that at present, due to SLR, fewer components are needed to combine to push water levels above HTF thresholds, but tidal anomalies alone are still not sufficient to reach HTF thresholds in most locations. Finally, we explore how co‐variability between different components leads to compounding effects. In some places, positive correlation between sea‐level components leads to significantly more HTF events than would be expected if sea‐level components were uncorrelated, whereas in other places negative correlation leads to fewer HTF events.

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Evolving tides aggravate nuisance flooding along the U.S. coastline

Cited by 43 publications

References 54 publications

The Effect of Harbor Developments on Future High‐Tide Flooding in Miami, Florida

The Effect of Harbor Developments on Future High‐Tide Flooding in Miami, Florida

Australian Coastal Flooding Trends and Forcing Factors

Contributions of Different Sea‐Level Processes to High‐Tide Flooding Along the U.S. Coastline

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