Examination of potential impacts of future climate change on solar radiation in Togo, West Africa

Abstract

This study investigates the potential impacts of future warming on Global Solar Radiation (GSR) in different parts of Togo, West Africa. It used regional climate simulations of the International Centre for Theoretical Physics version 4.7 (RegCM4) driven by HadGEM-ES and NorESM-M GCM for three different time-slice periods: baseline , near future (2031-2060) and far future . The models produced realistic simulations of GSR and temperature characteristics over the stations and the simulations spread are within the observation uncertainty. The simulations compared fairly well with the NASA observations. Biases in both the GSR (10-37 Wm −2 or 5-17%) and temperature (0.1-2.0 °C or 0.5-7.3%) were found to be insignificant at p < 0.05 across all the stations under investigation. The results revealed increasing but insignificant trends (0.025-0.043 °C year −1 ) in observed temperature but decreasing (0.225-0.567 Wm −2 year −1 ) in GSR during the baseline period. The estimated increasing trends (0.004-0.035% year −1 ) in cloud cover were partly attributed to the observed variations in surface GSR. All models projected increase in temperature (0.2-4.6 °C) but decrease in GSR (0.5-5.8%) over the entire country at both annual and seasonal time-scales. The simulated future changes in temperatures and GSR were expected to increase further and decrease, respectively, by the end of the century. The study has noteworthy implication in solar photovoltaic power production under warmer climate. It suggests a need for improved technology with the least climate change impacts over the republic of Togo, West Africa.

Effects of Angstrom-Prescott and Hargreaves-Samani Coefficients on Climate Forcing and Solar PV Technology Selection in West Africa

“…Fant et al [48] projected small changes in solar PV generation in 2050, with an increase in the winter and a decrease in the summer in most regions of Southern Africa. Patchali et al [49] also reported reductions in global solar radiation at several locations in Togo, West Africa. Ohunakin et al [50] showed a decrease in global solar radiation in Nigeria, with the largest possible decrease in southern Nigeria.…”

A Techno-Economic-Environmental Feasibility Study of Residential Solar Photovoltaic/Biomass Power Generation for Rural Electrification: A Real Case Study

“…Table 1 shows the typical monthly values of global SR over Sohag Al Gadida City [32]. The chart shows that there are a lot of SE events at this location, particularly in the summer, when the mean daily SR in June was 8.13 kWh/m 2 /day [33,34]. Moreover, Figure 6 displays the monthly mean of the horizontal radiation for 22 years.…”

Solar Energy Powered Decentralized Smart-Grid for Sustainable Energy Supply in Low-Income Countries: Analysis Considering Climate Change Influences in Togo

“…Their results indicated a 2% decrease in PVP over the African continent in the mid-century under RCP8.5 [50]. Other authors investigated the impacts of future global warming on solar irradiance using RegCM4 driven by two global climate models (GCMs) at a 25 km resolution run under RCP2.6 and 8.5 [51]. This study was conducted over five selected Togolese cities across the five regions.…”