Examining the Relationship between Climate Change and Vibriosis in the United States: Projected Health and Economic Impacts for the 21st Century

Abstract

Background: This paper represents, to our knowledge, the first national-level (United States) estimate of the economic impacts of vibriosis cases as exacerbated by climate change. Vibriosis is an illness contracted through food- and waterborne exposures to various Vibrio species (e.g., nonV. cholerae O1 and O139 serotypes) found in estuarine and marine environments, including within aquatic life, such as shellfish and finfish. Objectives: The objective of this study was to project climate-induced changes in vibriosis and associated economic impacts in the United States related to changes in sea surface temperatures (SSTs). Methods: For our analysis to identify climate links to vibriosis incidence, we constructed three logistic regression models by Vibrio species, using vibriosis data sourced from the Cholera and Other Vibrio Illness Surveillance system and historical SSTs. We relied on previous estimates of the cost-per-case of vibriosis to estimate future total annual medical costs, lost income from productivity loss, and mortality-related indirect costs throughout the United States. We separately reported results for V. parahaemolyticus , V. vulnificus , V. alginolyticus , and “ V . spp.,” given the different associated health burden of each. Results: By 2090, increases in SST are estimated to result in a 51% increase in cases annually relative to the baseline era (centered on 1995) under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5, and a 108% increase under RCP8.5. The cost of these illnesses is projected to reach annually under RCP4.5, and annually under RCP8.5, relative to in the baseline (2018 U.S. dollars), equivalent to 140% and 234% increases respectively. Discussion: Vibriosis incidence is likely to increase in the United States under moderate and unmitigated climate change scenarios through increases in SST, resulting in a substantial burden of morbidity and mortality, and costing billions of dollars. These costs are mostly attributable to deaths, primarily from exposure to V. vulnificus . Evidence suggests that other factors, including sea surface salinity, may contribute to further increases in vibriosis cases in some regions of the United States and should also be investigated. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP9999a

Homologous relationship between FabG involved in fatty acid biosynthesis and SDR on chromosome II in the multi-chromosome pathogen Vibrio anguillarum

“…In addition to V. anuillarum, a variety of other Vibrio spp., namely, V. alginolyticus, V. campbellii, V. cincinnatiensis, V. coralliilyticus, V. uvialis, V. furnissii, V. hollisae, V. metschnikovii, V. mediterranei, V. mimicus, V. navarrensis, V. ordalii, V. proteolyticus, and V. splendidus are potential opportunistic pathogens in humans [36][37][38][39][40][41][42][43][44]. Up to 10% of vibriosis cases reported each year originate from the non-agglutinating vibrios that were recognized as non-pathogenic species [45].…”

Rapid visual nucleic acid detection of Vibrio alginolyticus by recombinase polymerase amplification combined with CRISPR/Cas13a

“…It is one of the most important pathogens causing huge economic losses in the aquaculture industry (Gong et al 2020a, b) and is the second leading cause of human Vibrio infection(Jacobs Slifka et al 2017;Yin et al 2022b). With global warming, its pathogenic period has been prolonged, and the infection rate has also increased signi cantly (Sheahan et al 2022). V. alginolyticus infection often occurs in summer, usually due to the consumption of food contaminated by V. alginolyticus or exposure of wounds to the seawater environment (Baker-Austin et al 2018).…”

Invited Perspective: Vibriosis—The Price Tag of a Warmer World

“…A new study by Sheahan et al. 14 in this issue of Environmental Health Perspectives examines the influence of climate change on vibriosis in the United States and projects future health and economic impacts. The authors took advantage of an invaluable resource that is available only in the United States.…”

“…The potential human and financial costs of vibriosis attributable to climate change 15 , 20 quantified in this economic assessment by Sheahan et al 14 are compelling reasons to consider adaptation measures to attenuate climate change impacts. 21 , 22 The direct relationship between Vibrio infections and sea surface temperature lends itself to a climate-driven forecasting and early warning system.…”

“… 21 The analysis by Sheahan et al. presented in this issue of the EHP 14 will serve as the backbone of cost-effectiveness analyses for these types of adaptation measures and can help reduce morbidity and mortality from climate change and their associated costs, increase the effectiveness of interventions, and make efficient use of scarce public health resources in the age of global environmental change.…”