Excess Supply and Price Volatility in the Mexican Potato Market: A Decision Making Framework

Prices of agricultural products fluctuate depending upon several factors. In Turkey, potatoes are one of the main products for which price fluctuations are observed. This study was undertaken to determine the effect of the fluctuation in potato prices on producer incomes in Turkey. The Neyman Method was used to determine the sample size. The number of enterprises required to achieve a representative sample size was determined to be 56, with a 5% error margin and a 95% reliability limit. The way in which the potato cultivation area is affected by price was examined. The Koyck model was utilized for this purpose. By using Koyck analysis, average lag time was calculated to be approximately 1 year. This result indicates that the fluctuation in potato prices has quite a rapid effect on production. It was determined that producer income varies greatly depending on annual potato prices. The difference between estimated potato price and the actual price for the year 2012 resulted in an income loss of 11,198.6 $/ha. Some sustainable efforts such as production planning can be recommended to prevent these price fluctuations.

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“…Studies show that prices are more stable when proper production planning is carried out (Garcia-Salazar et al, 2013).…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Determination of the Effect of Price Fluctuations on Producer Income – the Case of Potatoes

Arısoy

Bayramoğlu²

2017

Turkish JAF Sci.Tech.

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“…Los resultados de un estudio indican que los excesos de oferta de papa (Solanum tuberosum L.) en algunos meses, podrían eliminarse a través de la implementación de cambios en la producción de papa de riego; esta política reduciría la volatilidad del precio y aumentarían el ingreso del productor, ya que la planeación de la producción por temporada aumentaría esta variable (García-Salazar et al, 2014). A nivel internacional también se observa la misma relación entre los cambios en la superficie y en los precios.…”

Section: Variable Endógena Situación Baseunclassified

Variación de los precios de la naranja (Citrus sinensis L.) en México

et al. 2021

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Introducción. Identificar los factores que pueden aumentar los precios al productor de naranja es importante por los efectos negativos que una caída en el ingreso puede tener sobre los productores agrícolas. Objetivo. Determinar cómo la demanda de la industria y la superficie sembrada de naranja afectan los precios al productor, al consumidor y al mayoreo. Materiales y métodos. Se formuló un modelo sintético del mercado de la naranja en México que consideró la producción en superficies de riego y temporal (ciclo de lluvia), la demanda en fresco e industrial,y diferentes niveles de transmisión de precios. El modelo replicó el valor promedio de las variables más importantes en el mercado de la naranja de los años 2014-2016. Resultados. Un aumento de 5 % en el consumo de la industria productora de jugo de naranja haría crecer los precios al productor en superficies de riego y bajo temporal en 11,1 y 35,8 %, respectivamente, y ubicaría los precios al mayoreo 31,7 % por encima de los precios observados en la situación base. Una disminución de 5 % en la superficie cosechada de naranja tendría un aumento de 15,2 y 49,1 % en el precio al productor en zonas de riego y temporal, con relación a la situación base. Conclusión. La superficie y la demanda industrial son medidas de control que pueden evitar la caída de los precios. Por la importancia que la producción de naranja tiene para los productores, el gobierno debería promover medidas para evitar que el aumento en la superficie de naranja provoque la disminución de los precios y lograr el compromiso de la industria de actuar a través de la demanda en situaciones de emergencia, es decir en los años de exceso de oferta de naranja.

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“…http://www. ijmp.jor.br v. 12, n. 8, November-December 2021ISSN: 2236 DOI : 10.14807/ijmp.v12i8.1498 the year, with great uncertainties regarding the prices received by the producer (García-Salazar, Skaggs and Crawford (2014). This situation is characterize by the fact that potato producers developing their productive and commercial activities in a market of perfect competition, without any kind of power over the ways of pricing, as well as the behavior of that market.…”

Section: Independent Journal Of Management and Production (Ijmandp)mentioning

confidence: 99%

Is there a price influence and personal characteristics in the potato purchase decision? A descriptive study

Marcomini

2021

Ind. Jour. Manag. & Prod.

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World potato production in 2017 was over 388.2 million tons, being the fourth largest in volume in the world, where the highest world producers are China, India, Russia, Ukraine, and the United States. Brazil occupies the 21st position in the ranking of the largest potato producers in the world, with a production volume of 3.6 million tons, with the main producers being the states of Minas Gerais, Paraná, and São Paulo, which together produce the equivalent of 75 % of the Brazilian total. Knowledge about the positioning of the consumer is important for stakeholders in the potato production chain, aiming at the identification of personal factors that influence potato consumption, as well as the recognition of opportunities, seeking to meet the wishes and needs of consumers. Also, it is relevant to check consumer sensitivity to fluctuations in retail prices. Few studies show which personal aspects influence consumers' decision to purchase potatoes, as well as they react to changes in price. Thus, this study sought to identify which personal aspects influence the purchase of potatoes and how the consumer positions himself concerning changes in prices, through the analysis of primary data answered by 170 people in 38 cities of the state of São Paulo. The collected information was processed using electronic spreadsheets in Microsoft Excel software and the analyzes developing using Multiple Linear Regression with Heteroscedasticity (MLR), with the aid of the Stata 15 software. Families with children, with more than two adults in the composition, and age are the personal aspects that influence the acquisition of potatoes. As the potato is a popular product, with easy access and relatively low prices, the levels of education and income do not interfere with consumption, since at times when prices are small the quantity consumed remains unchanged.

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Excess Supply and Price Volatility in the Mexican Potato Market: A Decision Making Framework

Cited by 6 publications

References 8 publications

Determination of the Effect of Price Fluctuations on Producer Income – the Case of Potatoes

Determination of the Effect of Price Fluctuations on Producer Income – the Case of Potatoes

Variación de los precios de la naranja (Citrus sinensis L.) en México

Is there a price influence and personal characteristics in the potato purchase decision? A descriptive study

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