Exogenous Shocks and Growth Crises in Low-Income Countries: A Vulnerability Index

Dabla‐Norris, Era; Gündüz, Yasemin Bal

doi:10.1016/j.worlddev.2014.02.001

Cited by 69 publications

(49 citation statements)

References 19 publications

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“…Vulnerability research, as a new paradigm of sustainable development, uncertainty and risk, sheds light on how to best analyze the uncertainty of innovation capability. As an innovative method, SPA focuses on uncertainty and is widely applied in the economic and social fields [11,12,18,26,[111][112][113][114], and is combined with some common comprehensive methods, such as E-SPA and P-SPA [44,[100][101][102]. Innovation capability is an important driver of economic development and is closely linked to uncertainty and risk.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Step 3: Calculating F 1 score (f 1 ) with Equation (12). In Equation (12), x 1 , x 2 , ..., x N were the standardized data of N items with the first sample.…”

Section: Pca and Spa (P-spa) Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Vulnerability research has a wide range of applications, including climate change prediction, natural disaster prevention, food security, and public health improvement [10][11][12][13][14][15][16][17][18][19][20][21]. Generally, innovation vulnerability relates to the risk or uncertainty of a company's innovation capability.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

A New Systematic Approach to Vulnerability Assessment of Innovation Capability of Construction Enterprises

et al. 2015

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Abstract:The purpose of this research is to study the vulnerability of construction enterprises' innovation capabilities (CEIC) and their respective primary influencing factors. This paper proposed a vulnerability system framework of CEIC, designed two comprehensive assessments for analysis, namely the entropy and set pair analysis method (E-SPA) and the principle cluster analysis and SPA method (P-SPA), and compared grades to verify the vulnerability assessments. Further, the paper quantitatively assessed the major influencing factors in facilitating management, reducing vulnerability, and improving the ability of construction enterprises to respond to changes in the construction industry. The results showed that vulnerability could be effectively and systematically evaluated using E-SPA. However, managing or reducing entrepreneurial sensitivity and improving the ability to respond was critical to supporting sustainable CEIC. The case studies included in this paper suggested that in ensuring sustainable CEIC, companies should concentrate on highly educated human resources, R&D investments, intellectual property related innovations, and government support. This research provided a practical framework and established a sustainable strategy for companies to manage their vulnerability in developing innovation capability. In addition, this research presented an innovative and effective way to quantitatively analyze vulnerability which offered a foundation to signify a new paradigm shift in construction sustainable development.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Step 3: Calculating F 1 score (f 1 ) with Equation (12). In Equation (12), x 1 , x 2 , ..., x N were the standardized data of N items with the first sample.…”

Section: Pca and Spa (P-spa) Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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A New Systematic Approach to Vulnerability Assessment of Innovation Capability of Construction Enterprises

et al. 2015

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“…Berg et al (2005) caution that the out-of-sample performance of EWS, especially over long horizons, has been mixed. In recent years, the literature has received a new stimulus, with a focus on evaluating factors associated with recessions and growth collapses (Bluedorn et al 2013, Dabla-Norris andGunduz 2014), fiscal crises (Baldacci et al 2011), and financial crises in advanced economies (IMF 2010). Credit bubbles have been identified as the most robust determinant of banking crises over very long time spans (Schularick and Taylor 2012).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Does financial connectedness predict crises?

Minoiu

Kang

Subrahmanian

et al. 2014

Quantitative Finance

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The global financial crisis has reignited interest in models of crisis prediction. It has also raised the question whether financial interconnectedness-a possible source of systemic risk-can serve as an early warning indicator of crises. In this paper, we examine the ability of connectedness in the global network of financial linkages to predict systemic banking crises during the 1978-2010 period. Our results indicate that increases in a country's own connectedness and decreases in its neighbours' connectedness are associated with a higher probability of banking crises after controlling for macroeconomic fundamentals. Our findings suggest that financial interconnectedness has early warning potential, especially for the 2007-2010 wave of systemic banking crises.

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“…The LICs that score better on CPIA are assigned higher debt sustainability thresholds. The underlying assumption is countries with 'strong' policies and institutions are better placed to withstand macroeconomic shocks compared to 'weaker' ones (Dabla-Norris and Gunduz, 2014;Megersa and Cassimon, 2015). Figure 3 indicates that most SSA LICs have relatively low CPIA scores.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Debt Sustainability and Direction of Trade: What Does Africa’s Shifting Engagement with BRIC and OECD Tells Us?

Megersa

Cassimon

2017

Foreign Capital Flows and Economic Development in Africa

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This study assesses the evolution of debt sustainability in the Sub Saharan African (SSA) region. It also examines the respective contributions of OECD and BRIC to debt sustainability in the region. We reveal how the external demand for SSA goods and services from OECD and BRIC helps to lower 'debt-to-exports' and 'debt-service-to-exports' ratios, two of the main gauges of debt sustainability. Furthermore, using simple growth accounting, we assess how the net exports by SSA to the OECD and BRIC contributes to the region's GDP growth, and thus indirectly helps to lower the 'debt-to-GDP' ratio, which is another important measure of indebtedness. Our study also compares the 'actual' debt levels of SSA with 'hypothetical' debt levels that simulate the contributions of OECD and BRIC. On the basis of debt sustainability thresholds of the joint IMF-World Bank Debt Sustainability Framework (DSF), we test how the sustainability of SSA debt has evolved overtime and how much the OECD and BRIC contribute to three classes of 'weak', 'medium' and 'strong' debt sustainability targets.

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Exogenous Shocks and Growth Crises in Low-Income Countries: A Vulnerability Index

Cited by 69 publications

References 19 publications

A New Systematic Approach to Vulnerability Assessment of Innovation Capability of Construction Enterprises

A New Systematic Approach to Vulnerability Assessment of Innovation Capability of Construction Enterprises

Does financial connectedness predict crises?

Debt Sustainability and Direction of Trade: What Does Africa’s Shifting Engagement with BRIC and OECD Tells Us?

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