Expected global suitability of coffee, cashew and avocado due to climate change

Abstract

Coffee, cashew and avocado are of high socio-economic importance in many tropical smallholder farming systems around the globe. As plantation crops with a long lifespan, their cultivation requires long-term planning. The evaluation of climate change impacts on their biophysical suitability is therefore essential for developing adaptation measures and selecting appropriate varieties or crops. In this study, we modelled the current and future suitability of coffee arabica, cashew and avocado on a global scale based on climatic and soil requirements of the three crops. We used climate outputs of 14 global circulation models based on three emission scenarios to model the future (2050) climate change impacts on the crops both globally and in the main producing countries. For all three crops, climatic factors, mainly long dry seasons, mean temperatures (high and low), low minimum temperatures and annual precipitation (high and low), were more restrictive for the global extent of suitable growing regions than land and soil parameters, which were primarily low soil pH, unfavourable soil texture and steep slopes. We found shifts in suitable growing regions due to climate change with both regions of future expansion and contraction for all crops investigated. Coffee proved to be most vulnerable, with negative climate impacts dominating in all main producing regions. For both cashew and avocado, areas suitable for cultivation are expected to expand globally while in most main producing countries, the areas of highest suitability may decrease. The study reveals that climate change adaptation will be necessary in most major producing regions of all three crops. At high latitudes and high altitudes, however, they may all profit from increasing minimum temperatures. The study presents the first global assessment of climate change impacts on cashew and avocado suitability.

Potential of breadfruit cultivation to contribute to climate-resilient low latitude food systems

“…Prioritizing a rich diversity of NUS over staple crops such as wheat, maize, and rice will lead to healthier diets and improved nutrition and contribute to sustainable development [59]. In addition, a recent study on plantation crops such as coffee, cashew and avocado that similarly have a long lifespan found shifts in suitable growing regions due to climate change for all investigated crops [60]. For both cashew and avocado, areas suitable for cultivation are expected to expand globally.…”

Climate Change and Agricultural Productivity in West Africa

“…also confirms that crops in Senegal, South-West Mali, Burkina Faso, and South-West Niger are more responsive to climate stresses and impact negatively on crop production in the four regions. The study byBagbohouna et al (2020) revealed that an increase in maximum temperature (Tmax) and a variation in minimum temperature (Tmin) have a negative impact on crop yields Grüter et al (2022). confirm that climate change in the form of high temperatures and flooding impedes the growth of coffee, cashew, and avocado in Guinea Bissau.…”

Dynamics of coffee output in Nigeria

“…Climate constraints in Nigeria are dominated by high temperatures (Haider, 2019). Due to climate change and the expansion of coffee cultivation to marginal lands, such as in Nigeria's north, these constraints are expected to grow in importance in several coffeegrowing regions (Grüter et al, 2022;Pereira, 2017). Poor weather and a lack of water are limiting coffee production.…”