Experience in Studying Seroprevalence to SARS-CoV-2 Virus in the Population of the Irkutsk Region during COVID-19 Outbreak

Попова, А. Ю.; Ежлова, Е. Б.; Мельникова, А. А.; Балахонов, С. В.; Chesnokova, M. V.; Дубровина, В. И.; Лялина, Л. В.; Смирнов, В. С.; Трухина, А. Г.; Пережогин, А. Н.; Pyatidesyatnikova, A. B.; Брюхова, Д. Д.; Киселева, Н. О.; Гефан, Н. Г.; Gavrilova, O. V.; Гаврилова, Т. А.; Ломоносова, В. И.; Тотолян, Арег А.

doi:10.21055/0370-1069-2020-3-106-113

Cited by 22 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 15 publications

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“…Perhaps the publication of this English version of the work will help to fill in information gaps to some extent. Further, it is worth mentioning that a large group of authors have already published 16 articles in Russian publications under the auspices of the head of Rospotrebnadzor, Professor A. Y. Popova [ 17 , 18 , 19 , 22 , 23 , 24 , 25 , 26 , 27 , 28 , 29 , 30 , 31 , 32 , 33 ].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

SARS-CoV-2 Seroprevalence Structure of the Russian Population during the COVID-19 Pandemic

Popova

Смирнов

Андреева

et al. 2021

Viruses

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The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, which came to Russia in March 2020, is accompanied by morbidity level changes and can be tracked using serological monitoring of a representative population sample from Federal Districts (FDs) and individual regions. In a longitudinal cohort study conducted in 26 model regions of Russia, distributed across all FDs, we investigated the distribution and cumulative proportions of individuals with antibodies (Abs) to the SARS-CoV-2 nucleocapsid antigen (Ag), in the period from June to December 2020, using a three-phase monitoring process. In addition, during the formation of the cohort of volunteers, the number of seropositive convalescents, persons who had contact with patients or COVID-19 convalescents, and the prevalence of asymptomatic forms of infection among seropositive volunteers were determined. According to a uniform methodology, 3 mL of blood was taken from the examined individuals, and plasma was separated, from which the presence of Abs to nucleocapsid Ag was determined on a Thermo Scientific Multiascan FC device using the “ELISA anti-SARS-CoV-2 IgG” reagent set (prod. Scientific Center for Applied Microbiology and Biotechnology), in accordance with the developer’s instructions. Volunteers (74,158) were surveyed and divided into seven age groups (1–17, 18–29, 30–39, 40–49, 59–59, 60–69, and 70+ years old), among whom 14,275 were identified as having antibodies to SARS-CoV-2. The average percent seropositive in Russia was 17.8% (IQR: 8.8–23.2). The largest proportion was found among children under 17 years old (21.6% (IQR: 13.1–31.7). In the remaining groups, seroprevalence ranged from 15.6% (IQR: 8–21.1) to 18.0% (IQR: 13.4–22.6). During monitoring, three (immune) response groups were found: (A) groups with a continuous increase in the proportion of seropositive; (B) those with a slow rate of increase in seroprevalence; and (C) those with a two-phase curve, wherein the initial increase was replaced by a decrease in the percentage of seropositive individuals. A significant correlation was revealed between the number of COVID-19 convalescents and contact persons, and between the number of contacts and healthy seropositive volunteers. Among the seropositive volunteers, more than 93.6% (IQR: 87.1–94.9) were asymptomatic. The results show that the COVID-19 pandemic is accompanied by an increase in seroprevalence, which may be important for the formation of herd immunity.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

SARS-CoV-2 Seroprevalence Structure of the Russian Population during the COVID-19 Pandemic

Popova

Смирнов

Андреева

et al. 2021

Viruses

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“…Сведения по каждому случаю COVID-19 регистрируются, формируя единую базу данных в целом по стране. Системно ведется серологический мониторинг [37], что обеспечивает непрерывный процесс объективной оценки состояния специфического поствакцинального иммунитета к возбудителям инфекций, управляемых средствами специфи-ческой профилактики, в «индикаторных» группах населения и группах риска.…”

Section: актуальность исследования определена значительными медико-демографическими потерями в период пандемии Covid-19 во всем мире и поunclassified

On Estimating the Additional Incidence of Covid-19 Among Populations Exposed to Polluted Ambient Air: Methodical Approaches and Some Practical Results

Zaitseva¹,

May²,

Reis³

et al. 2021

Health Risk Analysis

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This research is vital due to the considerable global medical and demographic losses during the COVID-19 pandemic and the latest research works providing evidence of a correlation between air pollution and spread of the disease, its sever- ity, clinical course and outcomes. Our research goal was to quantitatively estimate the influence of ambient air pollution on SARS-CoV-2 spread among populations in six cities in the Russian Federation. These cities were among priority ones as per air pollution and were in- cluded in the “Clean air” Federal project (Bratsk, Krasnoyarsk, Norilsk, Omsk, Cherepovets, and Lipetsk). Our hypothesis was that dynamic features of the infection spread would be different from an expected model of its epi- demiologic process under exposure to environmental pollution. Regression and correlation analysis was performed for rela- tionships between a daily deviation in actual incidence from a basic epidemiologic scenario and the average daily concen- trations of chemicals in ambient air. The initial data were results obtained from instrument measurements of ambient air quality in the examined cities (approximately 10.8 thousand measurements covering 29 chemicals) and the daily incidence of COVID-19 from April 18, 2020 to July 31, 2021 (77,337 cases). An authentic correlation between COVID-19 incidence and chemical concentrations in ambient air was detected in all six examined cities. The contribution of air pollution to COVID-19 prevalence amounted to 5.0 ± 2.6 % in five cities (Kras- noyarsk, Norilsk, Omsk, Cherepovets, and Lipetsk) over the examined period. In Bratsk, this value was about 33% and it requires additional research for either confirmation or correction. Growth in COVID-19 incidence in the examined territo- ries is associated with particulate matter (PM10, PM2.5) and some other chemicals that can irritate the airway directly or indirectly (sulfuric acid vapors, hydrogen chloride, formaldehyde, hydrogen sulphide, etc.). Target levels were substantiated for several priority chemicals; should these levels be achieved, one would predict a decrease in COVID-19 prevalence by more than 1-3% in the examined cities. We propose that population morbidity and mortality caused by COVID-19 require further studies, including those combined with medical and biological examination regarding efficiency of vaccination and post-vaccination immunity per- sistence on territories with elevated environmental pollution.

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“…В случае же эпидемического процесса новой коронавирусной инфекции описание проводится в рамках отдельных стран или регионов по целому комплексу показателей, с учетом половозрастной структуры, социального статуса населения, тяжести проявления болезни, готовности медучреждений и т.д. [9][10][11][12].…”

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Algorithm and Results of Short-Term Forecast of Changes in the COVID-19 Spread Coefcient in the Constituent Entities of the Russian Federation

Nikitin

Chesnokova

Балахонов

2021

Problemy Osobo Opasnykh Infektsii

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There was a decrease in the number of COVID-19 cases across many entities of the Russian Federation towards the end of summer season-2020. However, the disease remains a relevant threat to the public health and economy and the possibility of a second epidemic wave is not excluded. Rate of infection transmission (Rt) is one of the most important indicators to justify the transition to next stage of removing/introducing restrictive measures on COVID-19.Objective of the work was to describe the algorithm of analysis and short-term forecast of coronavirus spread rate, to assess correspondence between theoretically expected and actual values of this indicator.Materials and methods. Procedure for making a short-term extrapolation forecast of Rt in 10 RF constituent entities, depending on the presence or absence of indicator trends with calculation of a 95 % confdence interval of possible changes in its value is provided.Results and discussion. It is proposed to carry out Rt forecast based on averaged values over a week, combining regression analysis and expert assessment of time series dynamics nature for prompt transition from trend forecasting to extrapolation of stationary observation sequences and vice versa. It has been demonstrated that predicted Rt values are not statistically diﬀerent from actual values. When making managerial decisions on COVID-19 prevention, special attention should be paid to cases when actual value of Rt exceeds the upper limit of confdence interval. Six (20.0 %) such cases were detected in surveyed entities on calendar weeks 33–35. Three of them were registered in Trans-Baikal Territory, where upward trend was reported during that period of time. The cause of this phenomenon should be analyzed. The put forward algorithm of analysis and forecasting of the Rt value changes, which was tested in 10 entities of Russia, provides a reliable basis for making management decisions on removing/introducing restrictive measures for COVID-19 prevention.

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Experience in Studying Seroprevalence to SARS-CoV-2 Virus in the Population of the Irkutsk Region during COVID-19 Outbreak

Cited by 22 publications

References 15 publications

SARS-CoV-2 Seroprevalence Structure of the Russian Population during the COVID-19 Pandemic

SARS-CoV-2 Seroprevalence Structure of the Russian Population during the COVID-19 Pandemic

On Estimating the Additional Incidence of Covid-19 Among Populations Exposed to Polluted Ambient Air: Methodical Approaches and Some Practical Results

Algorithm and Results of Short-Term Forecast of Changes in the COVID-19 Spread Coefcient in the Constituent Entities of the Russian Federation

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