Expert judgments of pandemic influenza risks

Bruin, Wändi Bruine de; Fischhoff, Baruch; Brilliant, Larry; Caruso, Denise

doi:10.1037/e683342011-141

Cited by 12 publications

(17 citation statements)

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“…1 The possibility of vaccine failure in the face of genetic This project assessed which nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) are most acceptable to parents and teachers of school children in grades K-5 to K-8 in Pittsburgh public schools.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Using Nonpharmaceutical Interventions to Prevent Influenza Transmission in Elementary School Children

Stebbins

Downs

Vukotich

2009

Journal of Public Health Management and Practice

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The success of an NPI or a set of NPIs depends on both its efficacy and the feasibility of implementing it with relevant populations. If masks, gloves, and other more intrusive NPIs are to be used in community settings during a severe influenza season or pandemic, it is clear that there is significant preparatory work needed to increase acceptability on the part of the adults. Without such acceptance, it is highly unlikely that children and their supervising adults will participate.

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confidence: 99%

Using Nonpharmaceutical Interventions to Prevent Influenza Transmission in Elementary School Children

Stebbins

Downs

Vukotich

2009

Journal of Public Health Management and Practice

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“…Nor did either seem feasible in the next three years, according to Pandefense survey respondents (see below; Bruine de Bruin et al, 2006). Without unprecedented international mobilization, these strategies might never be Like other computable models, Figure 2's potential value is in giving analytical expression to issues raised verbally in CDC's scenarios, responses to the Pandefense survey's open-ended questions, and other sources.…”

Section: Fuller Modelsmentioning

confidence: 93%

“…The survey reported by Bruine de Bruin et al (2006) takes some next steps toward developing behaviorally realistic policies, based on this foundational work. Specifically, it elicits expert judgments precise enough to be used in computational models for one critical scenario: that in which a pandemic occurs within the next 3 years.…”

Section: Applying Scenario-informed Computational Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The terms of the invitation preclude revealing the names of participants, other than the organizers. All were asked to complete a survey that would provide a snapshot of their views, to be presented at the meeting (Bruine de Bruin et al, 2006). Of the 36 who completed the survey, 19 described themselves as medical experts, with specialties mostly related to epidemiology and influenza.…”

Section: Disaster Planning Contextmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Analyzing disaster risks and plans: An avian flu example

et al. 2006

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Narrative approaches to analyzing risks seek to identify the variables critical to creating and controlling a risk, then to instantiate them in terms of coherent themes (e.g., organizational failure, strategic surprise). Computational approaches to analyzing risks seek to identify the same critical variables, then to instantiate them in terms of their probability. Disaster risk analysis faces complex, novel processes that strain the capabilities of both approaches. We propose an approach that integrates elements of each, relying on what we call structured scenarios and computable models. It is illustrated by framing the analysis of plans for a possible avian flu pandemic. Copyright Springer Science + Business Media, LLC 2006Scenarios, Uncertainty, Risk analysis, Judgment, Avian flu,

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“…This is particularly important since experts are more likely to give different views on risk during a time of uncertainty (cf. Bruine de Bruin et al 2006;Kosugi et al 2011). Sometimes, it turns out an expert specializing in a field surrounding the issue in question has a far clearer perspective on risk assessment than an expert directly involved.…”

Section: The Agony Involved In Finding An Expertmentioning

confidence: 99%

Agenda Building Intervention of Socio-Scientific Issues: A Science Media Centre of Japan Perspective

Tanaka

2015

Lessons From Fukushima

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In the present day, social agenda is constructed on media, but its manner has become complicated after the rise of the Internet. Socio-scientific issues also form their shape on media, so it could be said media is an origin where misunderstanding between experts and citizens begins. The theme of this chapter is to depict the difficulty of performing deliberation within this complex media ecosystem with subsuming socio-scientific issues. Furthermore, by figuring out its difficulty, this chapter will throw questions at Science and Technology Studies (STS) about its significance and role in the face of the media argument. In order to outline this complicated problem, this chapter takes the following configuration: First, depict the structural features of science media in Japan, which is an object of intervention of the Science Media Centre of Japan (SMCJ). Then we will describe the functional procedures of the SMCJ. This will lead to a reflexive examination of the SMCJ's activity following the Great East Japan Earthquake, where we will discuss the significance and limitation on intervening agenda building and framing processes in the media

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Expert judgments of pandemic influenza risks

Cited by 12 publications

References 0 publications

Using Nonpharmaceutical Interventions to Prevent Influenza Transmission in Elementary School Children

Using Nonpharmaceutical Interventions to Prevent Influenza Transmission in Elementary School Children

Analyzing disaster risks and plans: An avian flu example

Agenda Building Intervention of Socio-Scientific Issues: A Science Media Centre of Japan Perspective

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