Experts use base rates in real-world sequential decisions

Link, Daniel; Raab, Markus

doi:10.3758/s13423-021-02024-6

Cited by 7 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 20 publications

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“…However, another alternative is that the tasks themselves have priors. The idea here is that laboratory tasks may inherit the priors that similar everyday tasks have (cf., Hayes, Navarro, Stephens, et al, 2019;Link & Raab, 2021;Tauber, Navarro, Perfors, & Steyvers, 2017). If this were the case, then subjects would weigh differentially any explicit base-rate information that we provide, modulating it by their task-specific priors, and thus replicating differences across tasks that Exps.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 95%

Know your priors: Task specific priors reflect subjective expectations in Bayesian models of categorization

Marchant¹,

Toro-Hernández²,

Chaigneau³

2021

Preprint

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The emergence of Bayesian causal models has had an enormous influence on how researchers understand people’s processing of probabilistic information, providing a description of cognitive phenomena and allowing their formalization and ensuing mathematical predictions. In the topic of categorization, the Generative Model (GM) is one such Bayesian formalization. Over three different experiments we tested if the GM can predict human causal-based categorization when subjects are facing probabilistic information about feature base-rates and about feature’s causal-strength. In our experiments we implemented a condition designed to favor subjects’ use of interfeature causal relations when making judgments (i.e., the Consistency condition). We contrasted this condition with a typical Category Membership condition. Our data suggest that on both conditions participants were doing causal-based processing. However, our data also shows that subjects in the Category Membership condition weighted causal information less and feature base-rates more than in the Consistency condition. Our results can be accounted for by assuming that subjects brought task-specific prior probabilities to the category membership task, biasing them into believing that a category’s characteristic features were high-probability features. Other explanations, such as that subjects in the Category Membership condition were doing similarity-based processing or that they did not understand causal-probabilistic information, were possible to rule out based on our experiments.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 95%

Know your priors: Task specific priors reflect subjective expectations in Bayesian models of categorization

Marchant¹,

Toro-Hernández²,

Chaigneau³

2021

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…The belief in hot streaks can provide valid cues to decide who to give shots to, and this behavior is supported by the fallacious belief in dependency 41 . This is further validated in 42 , which analyzed the sequential choices made by expert athletes and found that they were sensitive to base rates and adapted their decision strategies accordingly. Additionally, defensive pressure and shot difficulty increase during hot streaks, so that defenders seem to behave according to the hot-hand belief and try to force hot players into more difficult shots 37 .…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 88%

Significant hot hand effect in the game of cricket

Ram

Nandan

Sornette

2022

Sci Rep

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We investigate the predictability and persistence of individual and team performance (hot-hand effect) by analyzing the complete recorded history of international cricket. We introduce an original temporal representation of performance streaks, which is suitable to be modelled as a self-exciting point process. We confirm the presence of predictability and hot-hands across the individual performance and the absence of the same in team performance and game outcome. Thus, Cricket is a game of skill for individuals and a game of chance for the teams. Our study contributes to recent historiographical debates concerning the presence of persistence in individual and collective productivity and success. The introduction of several metrics and methods can be useful to test and exploit clustering of performance in the study of human behavior and design of algorithms for predicting success.

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“…Understanding how volleyball players make decisions has increasingly been the focus of research in the last few years (e.g., Castro et al, 2022;Degrenne et al, 2023;Link & Raab, 2022;Lola & Tzetzis, 2021;Ramos et al, 2022;Suárez et al, 2020). This is because the game dynamic that emerges from the players' simultaneous interactions of cooperation and opposition requires they frequently make decisions as a sine qua non for successful performances.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The interpersonal coordination constraint on the volleyball setter’s decision-making on setting direction

Denardi,

Clavijo,

Santana

et al. 2024

J. Hum. Sport Exerc.

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This study investigated the setter’s decision-making on setting direction based on interpersonal (interaction between players) and extra personal (interaction between players and some place or object) coordination. The sample consisted of 86 sequences of play involving settings performed by males (n = 43) and females (n = 43). Fifty-nine spatiotemporal measures of interpersonal and extra personal coordination were obtained from the x and y coordinates of volleyball players’ displacements using the TACTO software. Settings to each court zone were compared in relation to each spatiotemporal measure. Results showed that when the final area between attacker in the zone 3 and block was greatest and emerged from highest velocity, setters decided to set to zone 2. On the other hand, when the foregoing area was smallest and emerged from lowest velocity, setters decided to set to zones 3 and 4. It was concluded that the final area between attacker in the zone 3 and block and its emerging velocity constrained the setters’ decision-making on setting direction. This study provides useful insights into the design of practice tasks in volleyball, suggesting that setters should be advised to be attuned to the interpersonal coordination involving attacker in the zone 3 and block.

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Experts use base rates in real-world sequential decisions

Cited by 7 publications

References 20 publications

Know your priors: Task specific priors reflect subjective expectations in Bayesian models of categorization

Know your priors: Task specific priors reflect subjective expectations in Bayesian models of categorization

Significant hot hand effect in the game of cricket

The interpersonal coordination constraint on the volleyball setter’s decision-making on setting direction

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