Explaining and forecasting interannual variability in the flow of the Nile River

Siam, M.; Eltahir, Elfatih A. B.

doi:10.5194/hess-19-1181-2015

Cited by 27 publications

(21 citation statements)

References 29 publications

(29 reference statements)

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“…4a). These changes in the frequencies of El Niño and La Niña events would change the Nile flow patterns following the observed teleconnection between ENSO and the Nile, in which El Niño and La Niña events induce low and high flows in the river, respectively [20][21][22] (Fig. 3d and Supplementary Fig.…”

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confidence: 90%

Climate change enhances interannual variability of the Nile river flow

2017

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The human population living in the Nile basin countries is projected to double by 2050, approaching one billion 1 . The increase in water demand associated with this burgeoning population will put significant stress on the available water resources. Potential changes in the flow of the Nile River as a result of climate change may further strain this critical situation 2,3 . Here, we present empirical evidence from observations and consistent projections from climate model simulations suggesting that the standard deviation describing interannual variability of total Nile flow could increase by 50% (±35%) (multi-model ensemble mean ±1 standard deviation) in the twenty-first century compared to the twentieth century. We attribute the relatively large change in interannual variability of the Nile flow to projected increases in future occurrences of El Niño and La Niña events 4,5 and to observed teleconnection between the El Niño-Southern Oscillation and Nile River flow 6,7 . Adequacy of current water storage capacity and plans for additional storage capacity in the basin will need to be re-evaluated given the projected enhancement of interannual variability in the future flow of the Nile river.The Nile river basin is an ecosystem under severe stress. The basin is shared by about 400 million people in eleven countries with economies that depend heavily on agriculture, which employs the vast majority of the labour force in most of these countries 1 . Furthermore, almost half of the Nile basin countries are projected to live below the water scarcity level, 1,000 m 3 /person/year, by 2030 8,9 . Thus, any future changes in the magnitude of the flow volume of the Nile river can lead to significant impacts on the lives of people living within the basin and may increase the already high level of water stress.To fully utilize the water resources of the basin, several dams were built in the previous century to control the seasonal and interannual variability of the Nile flow. The recent conflict over the Nile water has received significant attention in the past few years after the decision by Ethiopia to build a large dam on the Blue Nile (the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, or GERD) to produce electricity, mostly for export to neighbouring countries. The dam, currently under construction, is relatively large compared to previous designs for the same location, which raised serious concerns regarding its effect on water shares of downstream countries (that is, Egypt and Sudan). If variability of the Nile flow changes in the future, then water storage capacity in the basin will need to be re-evaluated.Until recently, attempts to project the future of the Nile flow yielded inconsistent results. Although several studies examined the impacts of climate change on the Nile basin using different approaches 10-18 , the uncertainty surrounding conclusions from these studies was high for several reasons. First, none of the previous studies presented observational evidence to support their hypotheses, as they estimated the impacts of cli...

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confidence: 90%

Climate change enhances interannual variability of the Nile river flow

2017

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“…The model was run on a monthly basis for each hydrologic condition (1980-1986, 1917-1923, and 1954-1960) to assess the sensitivity of optimal reservoir operation to hydrological variability. It is worth mentioning that the annual average of the monthly flow affects the operation of reservoirs because of the inter-annual variability of the Nile River, which is evident [50,51]. The effect varies with the capacity of reservoir: the effect will be small, or there will be no effect in case of over-year-storage reservoirs and large in case of annual-storage reservoirs.…”

Section: Hydrological Conditions Consideredmentioning

confidence: 99%

Optimal Operation of the Eastern Nile System Using Genetic Algorithm, and Benefits Distribution of Water Resources Development

Digna

Castro-Gama

Zaag

et al. 2018

Water

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The Eastern Nile Basin is facing a number of transboundary issues, including water resources development, and the associated impacts. The Nile Basin, particularly the Eastern Nile Sub-basin, is considered as one of a few international river systems of potential conflicts between riparian countries. The Eastern Nile is characterized by the high dependency of downstream countries on river water generated in upstream countries, with limited or no contribution to the runoff itself. The aim of this paper is to analyze optimal scenarios for water resources management in the Eastern Nile with regard to hydropower generation and irrigation development. A hydro-economic optimization model based on Genetic Algorithm has been used to determine the maximum benefits for two scenarios: (i) non-cooperative management of hydraulic infrastructure by the riparian countries (status quo), and (ii) cooperative water resources management among the riparian countries. The hydro-economic model is developed using a Genetic Algorithm and deterministic optimization approach covering all hydraulic infrastructures in the Eastern Nile, existing and planned, including the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). The results show that cooperative management yields an increase in hydro-energy returns for all countries compared to the status quo, with a very high increase in Ethiopian’s returns, as expected. Non-cooperative system management would negatively impact the hydro-energy of Egypt compared to the cooperative management (reduced by 11%), without a significant increase of hydro-energy for Ethiopia. For Sudan, the results show that hydropower generation benefits from the presence of GERD, in both management scenarios. Non-cooperative management of the system, along with the internal trade-off between irrigation and hydropower facilities, would negatively impact irrigation supply in Sudan. The findings support the argument of positive impact of GERD development on the three Eastern Nile riparian countries, Ethiopia, Sudan and Egypt, provided that the three countries agree to manage the system cooperatively.

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“…Records have been kept since ancient times on the flooding and droughts of the Nile (Hassan, 2007) and have been a topic of scientific study for well over a century (Waite, 1904). In north Africa, droughts are directly linked to the economic well-being of the countries Strzepek & McCluskey, 2007), and thus numerous scientific endeavors have been made to understand and predict their frequency and severity (Block & Strzepek, 2010;Conway & Hulme, 1993;Conway & Hulme, 1996;Eltahir & Wang, 1999;Siam & Eltahir, 2015).…”

Section: Droughts and Climate Changes On The Nilementioning

confidence: 99%

Exploring Cooperative Transboundary River Management Strategies for the Eastern Nile Basin

Wheeler

Hall

Abdo

et al. 2018

Water Resources Research

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A water resource modeling process is demonstrated to support multistakeholder negotiations over transboundary management of the Nile River. This process addresses the challenge of identifying management options of new hydraulic infrastructure that potentially affects downstream coriparian nations and how the management of existing infrastructure can be adapted. The method includes an exploration of potential management decisions using a multiobjective evolutionary algorithm, intertwined with an iterative process of formulating cooperative strategies to overcome technical and political barriers faced in a transboundary negotiation. The case study is the addition of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) and considers how its operation may be coordinated with adaptations to the operations of Egypt's High Aswan Dam. The results demonstrate that a lack of coordination is likely to be harmful to downstream riparians and suggest that adaptations to infrastructure in Sudan and Egypt can reduce risks to water supplies and energy generation. Although risks can be substantially reduced by agreed releases from the GERD and basic adaptations to the High Aswan Dam, these measures are still insufficient to assure that no additional risk is assumed by Egypt. The method then demonstrates how improvements to water security for both downstream riparians can be achieved through dynamic adaptation of the operation of the GERD during drought conditions. Finally, the paper demonstrates how the robustness of potential management arrangements can be evaluated considering potential effects of climate change, including increased interannual variability and highly uncertain changes such as increases in the future persistence of droughts.

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Explaining and forecasting interannual variability in the flow of the Nile River

Cited by 27 publications

References 29 publications

Climate change enhances interannual variability of the Nile river flow

Climate change enhances interannual variability of the Nile river flow

Optimal Operation of the Eastern Nile System Using Genetic Algorithm, and Benefits Distribution of Water Resources Development

Exploring Cooperative Transboundary River Management Strategies for the Eastern Nile Basin

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