Explaining Demographic Heterogeneity in Cyclical Unemployment

Forsythe, Eliza; Wu, Jhih Chian

doi:10.1016/j.labeco.2020.101955

Cited by 13 publications

(9 citation statements)

References 22 publications

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“…Column (3) shows that larger declines persist for Black and Hispanic workers relative to White workers in February 2021. This finding is consistent with previous evidence that employment of Hispanic and non-White groups is notably hard-hit during recessions, likely attributable to hiring discrimination ( Forsythe and Wu 2020 ).…”

Section: Distributional Impacts Of the Covid-19 Pandemicsupporting

confidence: 92%

Heterogeneous Labor Market Impacts of the COVID-19 Pandemic

Cortés¹,

Forsythe

2022

ILR Review

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The authors study the distributional consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic’s impact on employment, both during the onset of the pandemic and over subsequent months. Using cross-sectional and matched longitudinal data from the Current Population Survey, they show that the pandemic has exacerbated pre-existing inequalities. Although employment losses have been widespread, they have been substantially larger—and more persistent—in lower-paying occupations and industries. Hispanics and non-White workers suffered larger increases in job losses, not only because of their over-representation in lower-paying jobs but also because of a disproportionate increase in their job displacement probability relative to non-Hispanic White workers with the same job background. Gaps in year-on-year job displacement probabilities between Black and White workers have widened over the course of the pandemic recession, both overall and conditional on pre-displacement occupation and industry. These gaps are not explained by state-level differences in the severity of the pandemic nor by the associated response in terms of mitigation policies. In addition, evidence suggests that older workers have been retiring at faster rates.

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Section: Distributional Impacts Of the Covid-19 Pandemicsupporting

confidence: 92%

Heterogeneous Labor Market Impacts of the COVID-19 Pandemic

Cortés¹,

Forsythe

2022

ILR Review

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“…According to this, the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs currently expects the unemployment rate to be average 4.1% next year, eventually reaching 7% if the shutdown persists, even though more than a quarter of employees are currently working short hours to prevent unemployment. Forsythe and Wu (2021) found that the increase in the unemployment rate during the recession for young, non-white and less-educated groups of workers is primarily due to lower job search rates, which may explain more than 60% of cyclical fluctuations in unemployment across Europe.…”

Section: Literature Overviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

No escape from COVID-19 consequences: cross-sectoral evaluation of impact on unemployment in Slovakia

Švábová

Tesárová

Straková

et al. 2022

Central European Journal of Public Policy

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The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, which hit the world in 2020 and is still persisting, has significantly impacted many areas of people's lives. The shutdown anti-pandemic measures implemented by the governments also caused the development of unemployment worldwide. In Slovakia, the restrictions or even complete closure of the operation and activities of the companies caused rising unemployment in some sectors, while in some sectors, the impact was not so substantial. Therefore, the main aim of this study was to analyse and quantify the impact of COVID-19 pandemic on unemployment in various sectors of economic activities in Slovakia. For impact evaluation, a counterfactual approach was used, with analysis of time series development and statistically created counterfactual situation. The analysis was based on real data about the unemployment situation in Slovakia in the period January 2013–April 2021. The results of the study showed that the most affected sectors according to the NACE classification were F – construction, I – accommodation and food service activities and R – arts, entertainment and recreation, showing an increase in unemployment of 89%, 88%, and 65%, respectively. The analysis in this study showed that the impact of a pandemic should be quantified among the sectors, as there are large differences in unemployment caused by the pandemic. From these findings, it is necessary to deduce the different intensities and amount of state aid to companies or employees in these sectors. The results of the study should help to target the policy interventions better to mitigate the impact of the pandemic.

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“…The differential difficulty in job finding contributes to the persistent differences in Black and white economic outcomes. The differences in hiring rates can explain half of the unemployment rate differences between Black and white workers (Forsythe and Wu 2021), and these differences, along with wealth disparities and others, push down wages (Stelzner and Bahn 2021).…”

Section: B Ability To Search For Jobsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Worker Mobility in Practice: Is Quitting a Right, or a Luxury?

Edwards¹

2022

JLPE

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Worker mobility-the ability to find and take another job-is at the core of worker power, and, conversely, worker immobility is at the core of employer power. This paper presents evidence of barriers to worker mobility in terms of labor market constraints (can a worker find another job?) and financial constraints (can a worker afford to transition to another job?). The theoretical context of these findings is dynamic monopsony: the harder it is for a worker to leave, the more power an employer has over that worker's wages.

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Explaining Demographic Heterogeneity in Cyclical Unemployment

Cited by 13 publications

References 22 publications

Heterogeneous Labor Market Impacts of the COVID-19 Pandemic

Heterogeneous Labor Market Impacts of the COVID-19 Pandemic

No escape from COVID-19 consequences: cross-sectoral evaluation of impact on unemployment in Slovakia

Worker Mobility in Practice: Is Quitting a Right, or a Luxury?

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