Explaining individual differences in cognitive processes underlying hindsight bias

Abstract

Outcome knowledge influences recall of earlier predictions of an event. Compared to younger adults, older adults are more susceptible to the two underlying bias processes that contribute to this hindsight bias (HB) phenomenon, recollection bias and reconstruction bias. However, the role of cognitive abilities in these processes remains unclear. In Experiment 1, we extended the multinomial processing tree model for HB by incorporating individual variation in cognitive abilities into parameter estimation in a sample of 60 older (M = 72.50, range = 65 to 87) and 62 younger (M = 20.10, range = 18 to 25) adults. In older adults, our findings revealed that (1) higher episodic memory was associated with higher recollection ability in the absence of outcome knowledge, (2) higher episodic memory, inhibitory control, and working memory capacity were associated with higher recollection ability in the presence of outcome knowledge, and (3) higher inhibitory control was associated with less reconstruction bias. Although the pattern of effects was similar in younger adults, the cognitive covariates did not significantly predict the underlying processes in this age group.In Experiment 2, we collected memory judgment HB data on an additional 80 older adults (M = 71.40, range = 65 to 87) to assess whether a) experimentally increasing inhibition demands via outcome rehearsal during the HB task impacts the underlying HB processes, and b) the effects of this cognitive load manipulation on the underlying HB processes vary with an individuals' inherent cognitive abilities. Our findings revealed that cognitive load increased recollection bias independently of individuals' cognitive abilities. I would like to give a special thank you to Brant for his inspiration and statistical assistance, and his endless love and confidence in me.vi

Age Differences in Processes Underlying Hindsight Bias: A Life-Span Study

“…The rationale behind this idea is that the CJ is a taskirrelevant distractor that needs to be inhibited such that it does not influence information processing. A few studies have tested the assumed relation between hindsight bias and inhibitory control and showed some evidence, albeit weak (Bernstein, Atance, Meltzoff, & Loftus, 2007;Coolin, Bernstein, Thornton, & Thornton, 2014;Coolin, Erdfelder, Bernstein, Thornton, & Thornton, 2015Groß & Bayen, 2015b;Pohl, 2008).…”

“…A few studies have examined developmental differences in hindsight bias and compared young adults to children (Bernstein, Atance, Loftus, & Meltzoff, 2004;Pohl et al, 2010;Pohl & Haracic, 2005) or to older adults (Bayen, Erdfelder, Bearden, & Lozito, 2006;Coolin et al, 2014Coolin et al, , 2015Groß & Bayen, 2015a, 2015b. So far, only one study compared age groups across the whole life span, with participants aged 3 to 95 years (Bernstein et al, 2011).…”

“…Given that several studies have shown that lack of inhibitory control follows the same life-span pattern (Bedard et al, 2002;Cepeda et al, 2001), it is plausible to assume that age differences in hindsight bias may be caused by age differences in inhibitory control (e.g., Bayen et al, 2007;Pohl et al, 2010). Two studies have assessed inhibitory control independently from hindsight bias in different age groups, but they showed only weak evidence for the assumed relation (Coolin et al, 2015;Groß & Bayen, 2015b).…”

Using recursive partitioning to account for parameter heterogeneity in multinomial processing tree models

“…Examples of such an approach include models with probit link function in cultural consensus theory (Oravecz et al 2015), logit-link MPT models (Coolin et al 2015;Coolin, Erdfelder, Bernstein, Thornton, and Thornton 2016;Michalkiewicz et al 2013), and their hierarchical extensions (Arnold, Bayen, and Böhm 2014;Arnold, Bayen, and Smith 2015;Michalkiewicz, Arden, and Erdfelder 2016a;Michalkiewicz, Minich, and Erdfelder 2016b). Such models will have high power for detecting covariate e ects if the model specification matches the true data-generating process.…”

“…In order to do so, it is common practice to apply the model to multiple groups defined by these variables and to test for e ects (see, e. g., Riefer and Batchelder 1991, who study age e ects on memory processes). When the influence of the covariates is linear, it is more powerful to model them directly via specific link functions (Coolin, Erdfelder, Bernstein, Thornton, and Thornton 2015;Michalkiewicz, Coolin, and Erdfelder 2013;Oravecz, Anders, and Batchelder 2015). More generally, covariate e ects represent a form of parameter heterogeneity: di erent settings of covariates may lead to a change in models parameters.…”