Explaining Policy Punctuations: Bureaucratization and Budget Change

Abstract

Recent policy research has turned from the testing of static, cross-sectional theories to time-serial analyses of dynamic processes. This attention has renewed interest in the debate over incrementalism in policy development. Recent efforts have suggested that policy histories involve a series of short periods of instability followed by extended periods of stability. These theories are collectively known as punctuated equilibrium theories of policy. Efforts to test these models of policy have been limited to descriptive analyses of samples of policy budgets or univariate hypothesis testing. This article presents a strategy for multivariate hypothesis testing of punctuated equilibrium models based on the foundations of punctuated equilibrium theory. The strategy is illustrated with a test of the effects of organization size and centralization on the budgetary process.R ecent research in the politics of public policy has focused attention toward the development of policies across time rather than comparisons of policies across space. This approach has renewed interest in the time dynamics of policy development. For decades, the dominant approach to policy dynamics was incrementalism. In incremental theories, policies were assumed to change little over time (in particular, budget allocations were supposed to exhibit little change; see Lindblom 1959;Wildavsky 1964). This approach was popular though subject to empirical and theoretical critique (Berry 1990). More recently, the debate over incrementalism has been supplanted by a theory that integrates incremental and nonincremental policy change in one framework-punctuated equilibrium theory (Baumgartner and Jones 1993). This theory has been remarkably difficult to test in political science just as it was in its home discipline of paleontology. While recent efforts have attempted to examine hypotheses related to the punctuated equilibrium theories, the hypothesis testing technology Scott E. Robinson is assistant professor of political science and public affairs, TX 75083-0688 (Scott.Robinson@utdallas.edu). Floun'say Caver is manager of budgets, Greater Cleveland RTA, Office of Management and Budget, ). While there is consensus that policymaking organizations generate outputs that are characterized by both incremental and nonincremental change, this literature leaves open a number of important questions. To what extent does the punctuated equilibrium model of policymaking improve upon the incremental model? What factors contribute to the frequency of punctuations in policies?This article presents a multivariate method for testing hypotheses related to punctuated equilibrium theory. Following the elaboration of the methodology for testing punctuated equilibrium propositions, the article tests whether two dimensions of bureaucratizationcentralization and organizational size-influence the likelihood that a policymaking organization produces outputs in a manner consistent with punctuated equilibrium explanations of policymaking. The article concludes with a discussion of th...

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