Explaining Recidivism of Ex-combatants in Colombia

Abstract

What determines the recidivism of ex-combatants from armed conflicts? In postconflict settings around the world, there has been growing interest in reintegration programs to prevent ex-combatants from returning to illegal activities or to armed groups, yet little is known about who decides to “go bad.” We evaluate explanations for recidivism related to combatant experiences and common criminal motives by combining data from a representative survey of ex-combatants of various armed groups in Colombia with police records of observed behaviors that indicate which among the respondents returned to belligerent or illegal activities. Consistent with a theory of recidivism being shaped by driving and restraining factors, the results suggest that factors such as antisocial personality traits, weak family ties, lack of educational attainment, and the presence of criminal groups are most highly correlated with various kinds of recidivism and hold implications for programs and policies to successfully reintegrate ex-combatants into society.

The reintegration of ex-combatants and post-conflict violence. An analysis of municipal crime levels in Colombia

“…Previous studies such as Kaplan and Nussio (2018a;2018b) and Daly et al (2017) study the susceptibility of ex-combatants to crime in Colombia at the individual level, whereas our research focuses on the municipal level. 4 Howe (2012) also studies the crime at the municipal level and finds a positive correlation between ex-combatants and crime.…”

Assessing Gang Risks in Post-War Environments: The Case of Colombia

“…Based on his research in Congo and Sierra Leone, Themnér (2011) concluded that former fighters from groups that lacked economic opportunities, felt threatened, failed to reintegrate politically, retained access to weapons, and lived in insecure set tings were more likely to rearm. Kaplan and Nussio (2016) were able to identify risk fac tors in the individual domain by tracking recidivism among a sample of almost 1,500 Colombian former fighters. They found that having strong personal reasons for joining the group, the duration of a combatant's stay with the armed group, and resettlement in areas with criminal bands correlate with recidivism, while educational attainment, family bonds (including having children), and effective policing reduced risks (ibid.…”

A Dynamic Life-course Approach to Genocide

“…Figure 4 shows the scale of this reentry phenomenon in Rwanda (Walmsley 2012), illustrating that hundreds of thousands of Rwandans who spent time in prison due to their genocide-related crimes have been reentering their communities. Scholars know little about individual reentry and reintegration processes in the aftermath of genocide, and research could productively examine the individual, family, community, and state-level factors that make for successful reentry and reintegration experiences, much in line with the recent application of life-course concepts to Disarmament, Demobilization, and Reintegration processes after civil wars (Kaplan and Nussio 2016; McEvoy and Shirlow 2009). Such scholarship could test whether factors that facilitate reintegration of former prisoners in other contexts, such as secure housing, productive employment, and supportive families and communities (Morenoff and Harding 2014; Visher and Travis 2003), are also important following genocide and identify genocide-specific obstacles to reintegration.…”