Explaining the Association between Driver’s Age and the Risk of Causing a Road Crash through Mediation Analysis

Abstract

It has been widely reported that younger and older drivers have an excess risk of causing a road crash. Two casual hypotheses may coexist: the riskier driving behaviors and age-related mechanisms in extreme age groups (direct path) and the different environmental and vehicle circumstances (indirect path). Our aim was to quantify, through a mediation analysis, the percentage contribution of both paths. A case-control study was designed from the Spanish Register of Road Crashes with victims from 2014 to 2017. Assuming a quasi-induced exposure approach, controls were non-responsible drivers involved in clean collisions between two or more vehicles (n = 52,131). Responsible drivers for these collisions plus drivers involved in single crashes constituted the case group (n = 82,071). A logit model in which the outcome was the log (odds) of causing a road crash and the exposure was age groups was adjusted for driver, vehicle and environmental factors. The highest crash risk was observed in extreme age groups, compared to the 35–44 year old age group: the youngest (18–24 years old, odds ratio = 2.14, 95% confidence interval: 2.06–2.24) and the oldest drivers (>74 years old, odds ratio = 3.30, 95% confidence interval: 3.04–2.58). The mediation analysis identified the direct path as the main explanatory mechanism for these increases: 89% in the youngest and 93% in the oldest drivers. These data support the hypothesis that the excess crash risk observed for younger and older drivers is mainly related to their higher frequency of risky driving behaviors and age-related loss of capabilities. Preventive strategies in extreme-aged drivers should focus on decreasing these behaviors.

Presentation of Machine Learning Approaches for Predicting the Severity of Accidents to Propose the Safety Solutions on Rural Roads

“…In addition, in the frequency analysis, the greatest accident happened once the weather was clear, in line with the results of other studies [26,58]. e significant effect of age in reducing accidents has been emphasized in some studies, contrary to the result of this research, indicating that there is less effect of this factor [51,63]. In addition, the results of frequency analysis indicated that most accidents occurred by the driver between the age of 30 and 45, similar to these studies [26,58].…”

Assessing Willingness to Engage in Risky Driving Behaviour Using Naturalistic Driving Footage: The Role of Age and Gender

“…We should be cautious, however, in assuming a direct causal path between age and risky decision making without considering other factors such as experience, vehicle type or the environment. Indeed, age has a major influence on risky driving and the level of involvement in road collisions for the majority of young drivers, even when controlling for environment and type of vehicle [ 9 ]. However, the effect of experience should not be underestimated as it has been found to influence risk estimation and decision making independently of age [ 76 ].…”

“…Research shows that youth and inexperience is responsible for crashes in a significant proportion of young drivers [ 6 ]. Some of these crashes are due to a lack of fully developed skills (such as hazard perception; [ 7 , 8 ]), though other crashes are due to risky driving behaviours [ 9 ]. The willingness of a driver to engage in risky driving behaviour depends on their perception of the danger involved in performing such actions (risk estimation) and the perceived reward vs. costs that may be gained (e.g., peer respect, arriving sooner at a destination).…”

Modeling road traffic fatalities in Iran’s six most populous provinces, 2015–2016

“…On the other hand, older vehicles are less likely to have safety features. Safety equipment and its defects cause a crash and may increase its intensity [ 42 ].…”