Exploiting Qualitative Information for Decision Support in Scenario Analysis

Gambelli, Danilo; Vairo, Daniela; Zanoli, Raffaele

doi:10.3166/jds.19.407-422

Cited by 12 publications

(8 citation statements)

References 23 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…The field of foresight and scenario planning offers suitable tools to provide support and advice to policy-makers [4, 5] because the key to choose resilient (policy) actions is to define what they should be resilient to [6]. Looking at different plausible scenarios, decision-makers can anticipate possible or potential strategies [7] and use their knowledge to prepare for what may lie ahead, taking a proactive position instead of just accepting the events [8]. Applications of foresight methods to the health context has shown many advantages and offer insights to “be better equipped to improve health systems and interventions, and prepare for future public health incidents” ([9], p. 54).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Scenarios for population health inequalities in 2030 in Europe: the EURO-HEALTHY project experience

Alvarenga

Costa

Borrell

et al. 2019

Int J Equity Health

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Background Health inequalities have been consistently reported across and within European countries and continue to pose major challenges to policy-making. The development of scenarios regarding what could affect population health (PH) inequalities across Europe in the future is considered critical. Scenarios can help policy-makers prepare and better cope with fast evolving challenges. Objective This paper describes the three 2030 time-horizon scenarios developed under the EURO-HEALTHY project, depicting the key factors that may affect the evolution of PH inequalities across European regions. Methods A three-stage socio-technical approach was applied: i) identification of drivers (key factors expected to affect the evolution of PH inequalities across European regions until 2030) – this stage engaged in a Web-Delphi process a multidisciplinary panel of 51 experts and other stakeholders representing the different perspectives regarding PH inequalities; ii) generation of scenario structures – different drivers’ configurations (i.e. their hypotheses for evolution) were organized into coherent scenario structures using the Extreme-World Method; and iii) validation of scenario structures and generation of scenario narratives. Stages ii) and iii) were conducted in two workshops with a strategic group of 13 experts with a wide view about PH inequalities. The scenario narratives were elaborated with the participants’ insights from both the Web-Delphi process and the two workshops, together with the use of evidence (both current and future-oriented) on the different areas within the PH domain. Results Three scenarios were developed for the evolution of PH inequalities in Europe until 2030: ‘ Failing Europe’ (worst-case but plausible picture of the future), ‘ Sustainable Prosperity’ (best-case but plausible picture of the future), and an interim scenario ‘ Being Stuck’ depicting a ‘to the best of our knowledge’ evolution. These scenarios show the extent to which a combination of Political, Economic, Social, Technological, Legal and Environmental drivers shape future health inequalities, providing information for European policy-makers to reflect upon whether and how to design robust policy solutions to tackle PH inequalities. Conclusions The EURO-HEALTHY scenarios were designed to inform both policy design and appraisal. They broaden the scope, create awareness and generate insights regarding the evolution of PH inequalities across European regions.

show abstract

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Scenarios for population health inequalities in 2030 in Europe: the EURO-HEALTHY project experience

Alvarenga

Costa

Borrell

et al. 2019

Int J Equity Health

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…In order to achieve the assumed goal, a scenario analysis method was chosen which is widely used in various fields where future projection supporting decision making is required [22,23]. The usefulness of the scenario analysis method is determined by several features and it is not free from some weaknesses [24].…”

Section: Purpose Methods and Territorial Scope Of The Researchmentioning

confidence: 99%

Thermal Modernization Cost and the Potential Ecological Effect—Scenario Analysis for Thermal Modernization in Southern Poland

et al. 2021

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Air pollution is one of the important environmental problems in Poland. The main cause of its occurrence is emissions associated with individual heating of buildings. The reduction of the primary energy demand in a building is influenced by its proper thermal modernization, including in particular insulating. In view of the above, this article presents the results of studies on the possible environmental benefits of thermal modernization of single-family houses for the area of Southern Poland. The analysis was limited to determining the impact of measures to reduce air pollution emissions by insulating the building envelope of single-family houses. The research was conducted for two voivodeships: Śląskie and Małopolskie. Its aim is to identify the financial costs and achievable ecological effects of the thermal modernization of single-family buildings. The geographical selection of the research area was based on the fact that it covers the most polluted region in Poland. This region is characterized by many features that influence poor air quality. Among these features, the most important are: diversified building structure, a diverse topography, and very high population density. To limit multiple variables, we have selected a scenario method that has already been used in similar research. Four scenarios were established to show the relationship between the value of emission reductions and the level of funding for thermal modernization. The analysis allows a comparison of the effectiveness of individual variants and the transposition of their results into the possibilities of action in the region. This research will help to supplement the knowledge of the impact of insulating building envelopes on reducing pollutant emissions by reducing the energy demand of a building. They also identify a possible link between the level of this reduction and the grant amount for thermal modernization. As a result, it was found that a high share of external funding—stimulating the tendency of the inhabitants of the analyzed voivodeships to effective thermal modernization, and thus reducing the buildings’ energy consumption—has a significant impact on the improvement of air quality.

show abstract

“…In other words, by applying a test of plausibility to our scenarios, we form a bridge of credibility between the empirical evidence we have about the present and our imagination about possible futures. Plausible scenarios should 'bound the range of uncertainties that appear inherent in the future' (Bradfield et al 2016, p. 60); they should also be comprehensive, taking into account all relevant variables and trends (Gambelli et al 2010), including assessing the plausibility of combinations of key factors and critical uncertainties (Amer et al 2013). Finally, it has been suggested that plausible scenarios also have attributes of clarity, coherence, and consistency (Gambelli et al 2010).…”

Section: Plausibility and The 'Aha' Momentmentioning

confidence: 99%

Scenario Analysis and the Limits of Prediction

McGee

Edmiston

Haward

2021

The Future of Antarctica

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The limits of prediction pose a critical risk for any organisation making long-range decisions about its strategy and investments. The accuracy of our forecasts degrades progressively due to the combined effects of complexity and uncertainty, compounded by the passage of time. Scenarios become useful in the zone beyond the limits of standard prediction. However, we question whether it is really the case that scenarios must only start where prediction ends. Do most organisations that invest in scenario planning have no expectation that the scenarios created will provide a credible picture of what the future might be like? Instead, we view scenarios as anticipatory systems with a distinctive type of predictive model, where prediction is not based on probability, but plausibility. The zone of plausibility is a space in which scenarios provide evidence-based, broad-brush, but targeted, prediction. We contend that other objectives for scenarios, (such as futures consciousness, or re-perception) are necessary but secondary to scenarios' predictive work in the zone of plausibility. Importantly, we argue that if we abandon hope that our scenarios will provide a constrained form of prediction, then we fail to harness the potential that scenarios can offer-when they are plausible, rigorous, and robust. KeywordsLimits of prediction • Complexity, uncertainty and prediction • Scenarios and prediction • Properties of scenarios • Plausible scenarios • Turbulence, Uncertainty, Novelty and Ambiguity (TUNA conditions) OverviewAll who claim to foretell or forecast the future are inevitably liars, for the future is not written anywhere-it has still to be built (Godet and Roubelat, 1996, p. 164).

show abstract

Exploiting Qualitative Information for Decision Support in Scenario Analysis

Abstract: ABSTRACT. The development of scenario analysis (SA)

Cited by 12 publications

References 23 publications

Scenarios for population health inequalities in 2030 in Europe: the EURO-HEALTHY project experience

Scenarios for population health inequalities in 2030 in Europe: the EURO-HEALTHY project experience

Thermal Modernization Cost and the Potential Ecological Effect—Scenario Analysis for Thermal Modernization in Southern Poland

Scenario Analysis and the Limits of Prediction

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About