Exploring a COVID‐19 Endemic Scenario: High‐Resolution Agent‐Based Modeling of Multiple Variants

Abstract

Our efforts as a society to combat the ongoing COVID‐19 pandemic are continuously challenged by the emergence of new variants. These variants can be more infectious than existing strains and many of them are also more resistant to available vaccines. The appearance of these new variants cause new surges of infections, exacerbated by infrastructural difficulties, such as shortages of medical personnel or test kits. In this work, a high‐resolution computational framework for modeling the simultaneous spread of two COVID‐19 variants: a widely spread base variant and a new one, is established. The computational framework consists of a detailed database of a representative U.S. town and a high‐resolution agent‐based model that uses the Omicron variant as the base variant and offers flexibility in the incorporation of new variants. The results suggest that the spread of new variants can be contained with highly efficacious tests and mild loss of vaccine protection. However, the aggressiveness of the ongoing Omicron variant and the current waning vaccine immunity point to an endemic phase of COVID‐19, in which multiple variants will coexist and residents continue to suffer from infections.

Modeling SARS‐CoV‐2 True Infections in Catalonia through a Digital Twin

“…[4][5][6][7][8] Several approaches have been done to calculate the true infection rate for SARS-CoV-2. [9][10][11] Because the infection rate depends largely on the variant, computational models to explore the effects of new variants and how this DOI: 10.1002/adts.202200917 can become endemic exists, [12] and to calculate the effects of the vaccination process [13] over this spread.…”

TRACE‐Omicron: Policy Counterfactuals to Inform Mitigation of COVID‐19 Spread in the United States

“…[21] More recent studies explored the performance of testing, contact tracing, and vaccination in the presence of novel variants. [22] However, few, if any, models have retrospectively analyzed the Omicron wave at a national scale to study what policy interventions may have been effective if implemented.…”