Exploring hurricane wind speed along US Atlantic coast in warming climate and effects on predictions of structural damage and intervention costs

Abstract

Hurricanes are among the most destructive weather phenomena, which can cause severe damage to structures and loss of human lives due to strong winds and surge e ects. In 2005, Hurricane Katrina caused 1833 fatalities and $108 billion property damage in several coastal regions along the Gulf of Mexico. In 2012, Hurricane Sandy led to about $65 billion damage in the northeastern coastal region of the USA and in the Ontario Province of Canada. The severity of the consequences, associates with hurricane activity, has motivated several investigations, attempting to forecast hurricane activity in both near and distant future. A short review of the most important models, currently employed for hurricane simulation in wind engineering, is provided in the following section. For example, Georgiou derived a pioneering method to numerically model the hurricane wind eld and to predict wind speed in a hurricane along the US Atlantic coast [1]. Simiu proposed a "single-site" probabilistic model, which employs Monte Carlo simulation to compute hurricane reference wind speeds as a function of ve random quantities or parameters [2]. Subsequently, Vickery proposed an empirical track model [3, 4], derived from statistical linear regression of a large hurricane database. This model has been comprehensively validated and widely used for long-term hurricane wind eld predictions. The initial model by Vickery has been upgraded a number of times to advance the prediction of hurricane wind speeds [5, 6, 7, 8] and it is currently employed in its latest form to generate the wind speed maps in the ASCE-7 civil engineering design standard [9].

Wind disasters adaptation in cities in a changing climate: A systematic review

“…Therefore, regulations and policies should are demanded to strengthen the resilience of urban ecosystems [ 78 ]. Infrastructures in coastal areas are exposed to greater risks of cyclonic storms [ 79 ], and economic damage of infrastructures induced by hurricanes is expected to increase due to climate change [ 80 ]. Hence, adaptation measures such as improving construction standards are in urgent need [ 81 ].…”

Optimization of Condition-Based Maintenance of Wood Utility Pole Network Subjected to Hurricane Hazard and Climate Change

“…However, such an approach is constraint by the availability and quality of historical records and uncertain quantification of the natural variability in climate factors (IPCC, 2013). Hurricane formation and power dissipation depend on several climatic factors such as sea surface temperature (SST), North Atlantic Oscillation, Southern Oscillation, "El Nino" effect, vertical wind shear, atmospheric stability, and other factors (Ranson et al, 2014;Cui and Caracoglia, 2016). As such, variability in hurricane activity is a complex convolution of natural and anthropogenic factors.…”

“…Based on the range of changes in frequency and intensity, the following scenarios are assumed at the end of the twentyfirst century mostly following Mudd et al (2014b) and Cui and Caracoglia (Cui and Caracoglia, 2016): (i) RCP 4.5 will result in no change in frequency and +12% change in intensity; and (ii) RCP 8.5 will result in +25% change in both frequency and intensity. While considerable inter-and intra-decadal variation in frequency and intensity of hurricanes exists, it is assumed here that the change in both frequency and intensity is linear from the start of the analysis, which is assumed to be 2010 in this case, to the end of the twenty-first century as suggested in Stewart et al (2014) and Bastidas-Arteaga and Stewart (2015).…”

Potential of marshes to attenuate storm surge water level in the Chesapeake Bay

“…Recently, the United States (U.S.) experienced the effects of Hurricanes Katrina (2005), Ike (2008), Irene (2011), Sandy (2012), and Matthew (2016) in some of the most well developed areas of the country. Damages from Hurricane Sandy and Hurricane Katrina alone totaled over 173 billion dollars, and led to nearly 2000 casualties (Cui and Caracoglia ). In addition to traditional “hard” structures such as levees and dikes designed to mitigate the impacts of coastal flood events, there is an increasing interest in the adoption of natural and nature‐based features to support coastal resilience plans (Arkema et al ; Sutton‐Grier et al ).…”