Exploring Reductions in London Underground Passenger Journeys Following the July 2005 Bombings

Abstract

We examine the reduction in London Underground passenger journeys in response to the July 2005 bombings. Using entrance data for London Underground stations between 2001 and 2007, we incorporate demand and supply factors in a multivariate time-series regression model to estimate changes in passenger journeys between different Underground lines. We find that passenger journeys fell by an average of 8.3% for the 4 months following the attacks. This amounts to an overall reduction of 22.5 million passenger journeys for that period. Passenger journeys returned to predicted levels during September 2005, yet we find evidence of reduced travel until June 2006. Our estimates controlled for other factors, including reduced Underground service provision due to damage from the attacks, economic conditions, and weather, yet substantial reductions in passenger journeys remained. Around 82% of passenger journey reductions following the 2005 attacks cannot be attributed to supply-side factors or demand-side factors such as economic conditions, weather, or the summer school-break alone. We suggest that this reduction may partially be due to an increased perception of the risk of Underground travel after the attacks.

The Charlie Hebdo Terror Attack in Paris: Follow-up of French Citizens’ Terrorist Threat Perception and Its Aftermath <br/> [L’attaque Terroriste de Charlie Hebdo à Paris : Evolution temporelle de la Perception de la Menace Terroriste et de ses Conséquences auprès des Citoyens Français]

“…Several studies showed that citizens' concerns about terrorist threat following the September 11, 2001 terrorist attack decreased slightly over six month following the terrorist attack and continued to decrease over the next thirty months (Scott et al, 2013). Similarly, it has been shown that participants' behavioral changes were noted up to four month following the London public transportation terrorist attack (Prager et al, 2011). Consequently, a broader time span of this study might improve the comprehension of the citizens' terrorist threat perception and the behavioral responses to terrorism.…”

“…A general perceived threat of terrorism has been associated to specific behavioral reactions of avoidance related to reduced sense of citizens' safety. Such reactions include the delaying or cancelling of air travels following the September 11, 2001 (Gigerenzer, 2006;Huddy et al, 2002), limiting the citizens' use of public transportation following the September 11, 2001 (Huddy et al, 2002) and the London terrorist attack (Prager, Beeler Asay, Lee, & von Winterfeldt, 2011). An increased general terrorist threat perception is also related to behavioral avoidance such as visiting public places (Huddy et al, 2002), avoiding public open spaces (Rosenboim et al, 2012) and general changes in citizens' daily actions (McArdle, Rosoff, & John, 2012).…”

Evolving Risk Perceptions About Near-Miss Terrorist Events

“…In London, surveys of commuters immediately following the July 7, 2005 bombings, reported 32% intended to travel less often by mass transportation, but only 19% of commuters surveyed seven months after the attack said they intended to travel less often (Gigerenzer 2006, Gordon 2007. Other studies demonstrate that the use of the London mass transportation system returned to expected levels three months after the bombings (Sheppard et al 2006), and after the 2004 Madrid attacks, the decline in train travel lasted about two months (Prager et al 2011). In the natural disaster context, Michel-Kerjan et al (2012) detail how many flood insurance policy holders initially purchase flood insurance following a significant flooding event (i.e., in 2006, following Hurricanes Katrina, Rita, and Wilma, the number of new policies grew 3-4 times the growth rate seen in previous years) and then let the policy lapse within a few years (i.e., the median time of flood insurance policy tenure for 27 Downloaded from informs.org by [130.132.123.28] on 02 July 2015, at 02:28 .…”

Assessing U.S. Travelers Trade-offs for Aviation Safety Objectives: A Natural Experiment

“…Following this logic, safety weights are expected to stay high for an extended period of time. Support for this possibility comes from a study by Prager and colleagues [11] who showed that there was a significant drop in subway ridership in London after the bombing attacks that killed 39 people. The reduction in ridership persisted for months, and there was evidence showing that the reduction may have continued for almost a year.…”