Exploring sustainable scenarios in debt-based social–ecological systems: The case for palm oil production in Indonesia

Gonzalez-Redin, Julen; Polhill, Gary; Dawson, Terence P.; Hill, Rosemary; Gordon, Iain J.

doi:10.1007/s13280-019-01286-8

Cited by 8 publications

(13 citation statements)

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“…A detailed description of the ABMs can be found both in the following three articles, each corresponding to one of the three ABMs: Gonzalez-Redin et al (2018) [46]; and Gonzalez-Redin et al, 2019 [49,50].…”

Section: Models' Descriptionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The three ABMs have been developed under the same SES framework, which allows to explore the socio-economic and governance factors driving (un)sustainable development in SESs. The three ABMs have been published as scientific articles [46,49,50]. This article summarizes the main modelling outcomes and provides new SES insights on the following question: what drives (un)sustainable development in SESs?…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This model, which uses Indonesia as a SES case-study, shows the results concerning two ESS: crude palm oil (CPO) production and CO 2 emissions-in addition to biodiversity. The other economic, social and environmental indicators are included in the corresponding published article-Gonzalez-Redin et al (2019)[49].…”

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confidence: 99%

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Navigating Sustainability: Revealing Hidden Forces in Social–Ecological Systems

Gonzalez-Redin,

Gordon,

Polhill

et al. 2024

Sustainability

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During the 1992 Rio Conference, the sustainable development agenda envisioned a transformative change for the management of natural resources, where the well-being of human society would be enhanced through the sustainable use of natural capital. Several decades on, relentless economic growth persists at the expense of natural capital, as demonstrated by biodiversity decline, climate change and other environmental challenges. Why is this happening and what can be done about it? We present three agent-based models that explore the social, economic and governance factors driving (un)sustainability in complex social–ecological systems. Our modelling results reinforce the idea that the current economic system fails to safeguard the natural capital upon which it relies, leading to the prevailing decoupling between the economic and natural systems. In attempting to find solutions for such disjunction, our research shows that social–ecological systems are complex, dynamic and non-linear. Interestingly, results also reveal that there are common factors to most social–ecological systems that have the potential to improve or diminish sustainability: the role of financial entities and monetary debt; economic speculation; technological development and efficiency; long-term views, tipping point management and government interventions; and top-down and bottom-up conservation forces. These factors can play a dual role, as they can either undermine or enhance sustainability depending on their specific context and particular conditions. Therefore, the current economic system may not be inherently unsustainable, but rather specific economic mechanisms, decision-making processes and the complex links between economic and natural systems could be at the root of the problem. We argue that short- and medium-term sustainability can be achieved by implementing mechanisms that shift capitalist forces to support environmental conservation. Long-term sustainability, in contrast, requires a more profound paradigm shift: the full integration and accounting of externalities and natural capital into the economy.

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Section: Models' Descriptionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Navigating Sustainability: Revealing Hidden Forces in Social–Ecological Systems

Gonzalez-Redin,

Gordon,

Polhill

et al. 2024

Sustainability

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“…Operational studies evaluate and measure sustainability using indicators (Bell & Morse, 2005; Benitez‐Capistros et al, 2014; Van Zeijl‐Rozema et al, 2011). Most of the existing studies focus on the analysis of sustainability of economic activities such as agriculture or livestock at the local level (e.g., Gonzalez‐Redin et al, 2020; Ssebunya et al, 2019; Barron et al, 2021; Castañeda‐Ccori et al, 2020; Chbika & Aouane, 2021; Biret et al, 2019; Astier et al, 2012). Other studies focus on how endogenous drivers affect sustainability (e.g., Gonzalez‐Redin et al, 2020; Tian, 2011), and some others evaluate sustainability either in the social or natural system of an SES (e.g., Jabareen & Eizenberg, 2017; Olalla‐Tárraga, 2010; McKay, 2021) but do not consider an integrated approach.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Conceptual framework for analyzing the sustainability of socio‐ecological systems with a focus on ecosystem services that support water security

Gomez‐Jaramillo,

Berrouet,

Villegas‐Palacio

et al. 2023

Sustainable Development

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Water security is a global concern sharpened by the biggest humanity challenge of climatic crisis. With the end of designing and implementing efficient and sustainable water management strategies, it is necessary to recognize the interdependence and coevolution between natural and social systems and understand how the double way relationships between these systems shape sustainability. The socio‐ecological systems (SES) sustainability approach is an alternative to this end. Conceptual challenges have been identified in the analysis of the sustainability of SES. These challenges include (i) A lack of clarity in the definition of SES sustainability, (ii) the non‐inclusion of some inherent SES characteristics that determine critical thresholds, and (iii) a lack of conceptual frameworks for analyzing the sustainability of SES and water security‐related ecosystem services. This study proposes a conceptual framework, based on a strong sustainability approach, for analyzing SES sustainability focusing on water security and addressing the above‐mentioned challenges. This conceptual development includes three elements: (i) the key thresholds to ensure ecological functionality; (ii) the benefits that society derives from ecological functioning and; (iii) the two‐way relationship between natural capital and social systems. Analyzing these three elements helps identification of different sustainability states of SESs, focusing on water security, in the presence of endogenous or exogenous drivers of change. The conceptualization and operationalization of SES sustainability focusing on water security allows the analysis of the trajectories of change and provides insights into the required water management strategies in the target territory.

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“…[2] Simulation studies are a common strategy for addressing these challenges, facilitating exploration of complex system responses to current conditions as well as their possible responses to changing system drivers in the future. [3,4] Even with these tools, complex social-ecological systems can also be notoriously "wicked" to manage, in the sense that defining the problem to be solved can be elusive and vary from stakeholder to stakeholder, attempted solutions may cause as many problems as they solve, and each attempt has consequences that cannot be ignored. [5] Collaborative research strategies can be key in working with these challenges.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Using mixed methods to construct and analyze a participatory agent-based model of a complex Zimbabwean agro-pastoral system

Eitzel

Solera²,

Wilson

et al. 2020

PLoS ONE

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Complex social-ecological systems can be difficult to study and manage. Simulation models can facilitate exploration of system behavior under novel conditions, and participatory modeling can involve stakeholders in developing appropriate management processes. Participatory modeling already typically involves qualitative structural validation of models with stakeholders, but with increased data and more sophisticated models, quantitative behavioral validation may be possible as well. In this study, we created a novel agent-basedmodel applied to a specific context: Zimbabwean non-governmental organization the Muonde Trust has been collecting data on their agro-pastoral system for the last 35 years and had concerns about land-use planning and the effectiveness of management interventions in the face of climate change. We collaboratively created an agent-based model of their system using their data archive, qualitatively calibrating it to the observed behavior of the real system without tuning any parameters to match specific quantitative outputs. We then behaviorally validated the model using quantitative community-based data and conducted a sensitivity analysis to determine the relative impact of underlying parameter assumptions, Indigenous management interventions, and different rainfall variation scenarios. We found that our process resulted in a model which was successfully structurally validated and sufficiently realistic to be useful for Muonde researchers as a discussion tool. The model was inconsistently behaviorally validated, however, with some model variables matching field data better than others. We observed increased model system instability due to increasing variability in underlying drivers (rainfall), and also due to management interventions that broke feedbacks between the components of the system. Interventions that smoothed year-to-year variation rather than exaggerating it tended to improve sustainability. The Muonde trust has used the model to successfully advocate to local leaders for changes in land-use planning policy that will increase the sustainability of their system.

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Exploring sustainable scenarios in debt-based social–ecological systems: The case for palm oil production in Indonesia

Abstract: Exploring sustainable scenarios in debt-based social-ecological systems: The case for palm oil production in Indonesia. AMBIO.

Cited by 8 publications

References 46 publications

Navigating Sustainability: Revealing Hidden Forces in Social–Ecological Systems

Navigating Sustainability: Revealing Hidden Forces in Social–Ecological Systems

Conceptual framework for analyzing the sustainability of socio‐ecological systems with a focus on ecosystem services that support water security

Using mixed methods to construct and analyze a participatory agent-based model of a complex Zimbabwean agro-pastoral system

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