Exploring the Final Frontier: An Empirical Analysis of Global Civil Space Proliferation

Early, Bryan R.

doi:10.1111/isqu.12102

Cited by 27 publications

(20 citation statements)

References 25 publications

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“…The factors affecting governments' ability to develop advanced civil and military rocketry capabilities have been the subject of study by historians, political scientists, and policy-planners (e.g. MacDougal 1985;MacKenzie 1990;Karp 1996;Rumsfeld Commission 1998;Mistry 2003;Gormley 2008;Early 2014). Developing indigenous ballistic missile capabilities requires countries to cultivate military rocketry research and development (R&D) establishments that can bring together scientists, engineers, and technicians to master the technological complexities of rocketry (Karp 1996, Chapter 4).…”

Section: Military Rocket Programsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Since most rockets are designed to be used only once, and the slightest malfunctions, miscalculations, and accidents often lead to failure, quality control is exceptionally important (Karp 1996). As such, successful missile and space programs require cultivating significant amounts of scientific and technical (S&T) human capital in the rocketry realm (Early 2014).…”

Section: Military Rocket Programsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…For example, obtaining space launch capabilities is a comparably large and significant technical achievement in the civilian realm as obtaining nuclear weapons is in the military realm. It is therefore noteworthy that Early (2014) found that the maturity of countries' military rocketry R&D programs -proxied by the age of the program -is positively linked to the successful acquisition of space launch capabilities. This evidence demonstrates a correlation between the length of time military rocketry programs have existed and their scope 18 For a small number of cases within the NSBM Data Set, low-end and high-end estimates were recorded for the dates when countries military rocketry R&D efforts began.…”

Section: Independent Variablesmentioning

confidence: 99%

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First Missiles, then Nukes? Explaining the Connection between Missile Programs and the Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons

Early¹,

Way²

2017

kjis

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If countries invest in acquiring missile technology, does that in turn raise their likelihood of obtaining nuclear weapons capabilities? We argue that states that make long-term investments in mastering rocket technology are more likely to become latent nuclear weapons states or acquire nuclear weapons. Investing in the development of scientific and military industrial complexes (SMICs) within the military rocketry sector provides positive spillover from the research infrastructure that is built, the industries and scientific communities that are cultivated, and the lessons derived from managing complex research endeavors. Furthermore, such programs create constituencies that will advocate for the acquisition of nuclear weapons. Via a global analysis from 1945 to 2007, we find that possessing mature military rocketry R&D programs, as opposed to simply possessing short-range ballistic missiles (SRBMs), increases the likelihood that a country will acquire the capabilities to produce nuclear weapons. Our findings contribute to the research agendas on the domestic sources of security policy and supply-side theories of nuclear proliferation.

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Section: Military Rocket Programsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Military Rocket Programsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Independent Variablesmentioning

confidence: 99%

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First Missiles, then Nukes? Explaining the Connection between Missile Programs and the Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons

Early¹,

Way²

2017

kjis

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“…Often, these involve ballistic missiles (Mettler & Reiter 2013), and accordingly civilian space programs are often strongly associated with attempts to acquire nuclear weapons (Way & Early 2012). They also depend heavily on intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) platforms for threat warning, targeting information, guidance, and command and control (Early 2014, Long & Green 2015. Almost no attention has been focused on support, command and control, and the policy apparatus of nuclear capabilities.…”

Section: Avenues For the Advancement Of The Literaturementioning

confidence: 99%

Nukes with Numbers: Empirical Research on the Consequences of Nuclear Weapons for International Conflict

Gartzke

Kroenig

2016

Annu. Rev. Polit. Sci.

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Research on nuclear security has gone quantitative. Rapid growth in empirical approaches to the consequences of nuclear weapons in recent years promises to settle some controversies, even as it initiates or resurrects debates that may eventually be resolved with better estimates or data. The toolkit for studying nuclear security had long been bereft of quantitative approaches, undermining the virtuous cycle between theory and evidence. New data and growing confidence in statistical approaches have finally produced a systematic empirical literature on the consequences of nuclear weapons. We review existing studies, organizing the literature along thematic lines. We also discuss challenges facing the emergent quantitative literature and suggest several avenues for future research. Although the terminus of the basic research agenda has been anticipated more than once, the literature on nuclear consequences has shown a remarkable ability to generate novel and often unexpected research questions.

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“…66.Early 2014, 56. On the distribution of space capabilities during the Cold War, see Peterson 1997, 245–46.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Defending Hierarchy from the Moon to the Indian Ocean: Symbolic Capital and Political Dominance in Early Modern China and the Cold War

Musgrave¹,

Nexon²

2018

Int Org

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Why do leading actors invest in costly projects that they expect will not yield appreciable military or economic benefits? We identify a causal process in which concerns about legitimacy produce attempts to secure dominance in arenas of high symbolic value by investing wealth and labor into unproductive (in direct military and economic terms) goods and performances. We provide evidence for our claims through a comparative study of the American Project Apollo and the Ming Dynasty's treasure fleets. We locate our argument within a broader constructivist and practice-theoretic understanding of hierarchy and hegemony. We build on claims that world politics is a sphere of complex social stratification by viewing constituent hierarchies in terms of social fields. Our specific theory and broader framework, we contend, provide tools for understanding the workings of power politics beyond military and economic competition.

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Exploring the Final Frontier: An Empirical Analysis of Global Civil Space Proliferation

Cited by 27 publications

References 25 publications

First Missiles, then Nukes? Explaining the Connection between Missile Programs and the Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons

First Missiles, then Nukes? Explaining the Connection between Missile Programs and the Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons

Nukes with Numbers: Empirical Research on the Consequences of Nuclear Weapons for International Conflict

Defending Hierarchy from the Moon to the Indian Ocean: Symbolic Capital and Political Dominance in Early Modern China and the Cold War

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