Export diversification and real exchange rate in emerging Latin America and Asia: A South–North vs. South-South decomposition

Tran, Thi Anh-Dao; Phi, Minh Hong; Diaw, Diadié

doi:10.1080/09638199.2017.1286680

Cited by 13 publications

(11 citation statements)

References 33 publications

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“…Incidentally, Gnangnon (2021b) provided empirical evidence that AfT flows are associated with depreciation of the real exchange rate in recipient countries. As the depreciation of the real exchange rate is likely to be associated with greater export product diversification (e.g., Guzman et al, 2018;Sekkat, 2016;Sekkat & Varoudakis, 2000;Tran et al, 2017), we postulate that increased AfT flows have the same effect. Therefore, higher AfT flows can be associated with greater economic complexity, with a stronger effect on LDCs among AfT-recipient countries than in others.…”

Section: B Effect Of Aft Flows On Economic Complexitymentioning

confidence: 82%

“…Studies have shown that higher development aid to the education and health sectors helps to improve education and health in recipient countries (e.g., Birchler & Michaelowa, 2016;Chauvet et al, 2009;Dreher et al 2008;Kobayashi et al, 2021;Kotsadam et al 2018;Lewin, 2020) and, hence, enhances human capital, which is essential for ensuring greater productive capacities and economic complexity. Gnangnon (2021b) has shown that Non-AfT flows are associated with an appreciation of the real exchange rate (i.e., the relative price of the non-tradables to tradables), which is likely to discourage exports of goods and services (e.g., Eichengreen & Gupta, 2013), notably, manufactured exports, and hamper export product diversification (e.g., Guzman et al, 2018;Sekkat, 2016;Sekkat & Varoudakis, 2000;Tran et al, 2017). Consequently, we conjecture that Non-AfT flows may adversely influence the production and export of complex products.…”

Section: A Model Specificationmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Effect of Productive Capacities on Economic Complexity: Do Aid for Trade Flows Matter?

Gnangnon

2021

Journal of Economic Integration

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This is the first study to examine the effect of productive capacities on economic complexity and understand whether the Aid for Trade (AfT) flows is important for this effect in recipient countries. The analysis uses a sample of 126 developed and developing countries for 2002-2018 and adopts the two-step system Generalized Method of Moments approach. Results show that strengthening productive capacities enhances economic complexity. Furthermore, productive capacities and total AfT flows are strongly complementary in positively affecting economic complexity, and the degree of complementarity is higher for poor countries than for other AfT-recipient countries. Similarly, productive capacities are strongly complementary with total Non-AfT flows, as well as for total development aid. These findings highlight the need for scaling-up development aid flows, notably AfT flows, in favor of developing countries and poor countries having the lowest levels of productive capacities.

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Section: B Effect Of Aft Flows On Economic Complexitymentioning

confidence: 82%

Section: A Model Specificationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Effect of Productive Capacities on Economic Complexity: Do Aid for Trade Flows Matter?

Gnangnon

2021

Journal of Economic Integration

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“…Incidentally, Gnangnon (2020c) has provided empirical evidence that AfT ows are associated with the depreciation of the real exchange rate in recipientcountries. As a depreciation of the real exchange rate is likely to be associated with greater export product diversi cation (e.g., Guzman et al, 2018;Sekkat, 2016;Sekkat and Varoudakis, 2000;Tran et al, 2017), we postulate that an increase in AfT ows could induce greater export product diversi cation.…”

Section: Effect Of Aft Ows On Economic Complexitymentioning

confidence: 87%

“…At the same time, Gnangnon (2020c) has shown that NonAfT ows are associated with an appreciation of the real exchange rate (i.e., the relative price of the non-tradables to tradables). An appreciation of the real exchange rate is likely to discourage exports of goods and services (e.g., Eichengreen and Gupta, 2013), notably manufactured exports, and hamper export product diversi cation (e.g., Guzman et al, 2018;Sekkat, 2016;Sekkat and Varoudakis, 2000;Tran et al, 2017). Consequently, we conjecture that NonAfT ows could discourage the production and export of complex products.…”

Section: Model Speci Cationmentioning

confidence: 93%

Effect of Productive Capacities on Economic Complexity: Do Aid for Trade flows Matter?

Gnangnon

2021

Preprint

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The COVID-19 health pandemic has exposed the strong vulnerabilities of countries, including developing ones to shocks, and underlined the need for exploring ways to strengthen countries' resilience to future shocks. The current paper uses the dataset made recently available by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) to examine (for the first time) the effect of productive capacities on economic complexity. The analysis further investigates whether Aid for Trade (AfT) flows matter for the influence of productive capacities on economic complexity in recipient-countries. The analysis uses a sample of 126 countries (including both developed and developing countries) over the period 2002-2018, and adopts the two-step system Generalized Methods of Moments (GMM) approach. Results have shown that productive capacities exert a positive effect on economic complexity over the full sample. However, the magnitude of this positive effect varies across different sub-samples, with Least developed countries (LDCs) enjoying the lowest magnitude of this positive effect. Furthermore, total AfT flows are positively associated with economic complexity, with LDCs enjoying a higher positive effect than other countries. Interestingly, total AfT flows exert a higher positive effect on economic complexity in countries that experience low levels of overall productive capacities. The latter finding highlights the need for donor-countries to scale-up AfT flows in favour of countries (such as LDCs) that are characterized by low levels of productive capacities. Finally, the empirical outcomes indicate that productive capacities enhance economic complexity in countries that receive higher amounts of total NonAfT flows.

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“…Sin embargo, depende de un conjunto de condiciones; en primer lugar, se abordó la causalidad entre la diversificación de las exportaciones y el tipo de cambio real (TCR); en segundo lugar, considerando que la diversificación es más frecuente en las primeras etapas del Roberto Macha-Huamán; Patricia Maribel Yllescas-Rodríguez; Roque Juan Espinoza-Casco desarrollo económico, se exploró la relación para los países de renta media de Asia y América Latina; y en último lugar, se investigó las asimetrías en la causalidad examinando la dirección según los socios comerciales. Por tanto, se determinó que existe una causalidad bidireccional entre el nivel TCR y la diversificación de las exportaciones en la muestra en su conjunto; una relación causal de la diversificación de las exportaciones en el TCR e implicaciones cruciales para la política económica de los países de renta media; por último, el análisis para el Sur muestra un vínculo unidireccional de TCR con los cambios en la diversificación de las exportaciones (Tran et al, 2017).…”

Section: Diversificación De Las Exportaciones En Países En Desarrollounclassified

Diversificación de la oferta exportable y las exportaciones peruanas

2021

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RESUMENEl artículo tiene como objetivo analizar la diversificación de la oferta exportable y las exportaciones peruanas. La metodología tomada en cuenta fue la revisión de literatura científica de las bases de datos especializadas; Scopus, Ebsco Host y Redalyc. Los principales resultados indican que los países deben buscar diversificar su oferta exportable y diversificar sus exportaciones por mercados de destino, pasando de una estructura exportadora de productos primarios a una industrialización manufacturera de productos con valor agregado, de esa manera reducir el efecto de vulnerabilidad en términos de intercambio en épocas de crisis y mantener el equilibrio entre las exportaciones y el crecimiento económico. Se concluye que, a pesar de los grandes esfuerzos realizados por países como Perú, Chile y Colombia en materia de política de comercio exterior, continúan siendo dependientes de las exportaciones de productos primarios provenientes del sector minero con escaso valor agregado.

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Export diversification and real exchange rate in emerging Latin America and Asia: A South–North vs. South-South decomposition

Cited by 13 publications

References 33 publications

Effect of Productive Capacities on Economic Complexity: Do Aid for Trade Flows Matter?

Effect of Productive Capacities on Economic Complexity: Do Aid for Trade Flows Matter?

Effect of Productive Capacities on Economic Complexity: Do Aid for Trade flows Matter?

Diversificación de la oferta exportable y las exportaciones peruanas

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