Depopulation is a major demographic and economic issue in Nova Scotia, as it is in many of Canada's hinterland areas. Indian Reserves excepted, two‐thirds of rural census subdivisions declined in population between 1991 and 2001, and this decline has serious economic and social consequences. By contrast, a small minority of seemingly ‘rural’ areas is experiencing excessive population growth through exurbanisation. This article combines map and graph analysis with simple regression and multivariate techniques to analyse the key drivers of recent population change. It is shown that such change is strongly and predictably related to unemployment rate, income and population density and moderately related to resource‐industry employment, proximity to a major urban centre and commuting. These six variables are interrelated, however, and their separate contributions are explored through principal component analysis and multiple regression. Two variables—resource‐industry employment and urban proximity—are identified as key root causes, indicative of separate factors. Findings are related to the Drudy–Gilg model of rural decline, and their policy implications are briefly discussed.