Background To explore the risk factors of extended-spectrum β-lactamase-producing Enterobacteriaceae (ESBL-PE) infection through urine samples of hospitalized patients and establish a predictive model to improve treatment outcomes.MethodsThis retrospective study included all patients with an Enterobacteriaceae-positive urine sample at the first affiliated hospital of Jinan university from January 2018 to December 2019. Antimicrobial susceptibility patterns of ESBL-PE were analyzed, and multivariate analysis of related factors was performed. From these, a nomogram was established to predict the possibility of ESBL-PE infection. Simultaneously, susceptibility testing of a broad array of carbapenem antibiotics was performed on ESBL-PE cultures to explore possible alternative treatment options.ResultsOf the total 874 patients with urinary tract infections (UTIs), 272 (31.1%) were ESBL-PE positive. In the predictive analysis, five variables were identified as independent risk factors for ESBL-PE infection: male gender (OR=1.607, 95% CI 1.066-2.416), older age (OR=4.100, 95% CI 1.678-12.343), a hospital stay in preceding 3 months (OR=1.872, 95% CI 1.141-3.067), invasive urological procedure (OR=1.810, 95% CI 1.197-2.729), and antibiotic use within the previous 3 months (OR 0.546, 95% CI 0.314-0.948). In multivariate analysis, the data set was divided into a training set of 611 patients and a validation set of 263 patients The model developed to predict ESBL-PE infection was effective, with the AuROC of 0.650 (95% CI 0.577-0.725). Among the antibiotics tested, several showed very high effectiveness against ESBL-PE: amikacin (85.7%), carbapenems (83.8%), tigecycline (97.1%) and polymyxin (98.2%). ConclusionsThe nomogram is useful for estimating a bacteremic patient’s likelihood of infection with ESBL-PE. It could improve clinical decision making and enable more efficient empirical treatment. Empirical treatment may be informed by the results of the antibiotic susceptibility testing.