External and Internal Shocks in the Economy: A Review of Approaches

Aleshina, Olga

doi:10.26730/2587-5574-2022-2-39-60

Èkon. upr. innov.

2022

DOI: 10.26730/2587-5574-2022-2-39-60

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External and Internal Shocks in the Economy: A Review of Approaches

Olga Aleshina

Abstract: The article presents an overview of approaches to the study of economic shocksthe definition of their nature and sources, forms of manifestation, classification and transmission mechanisms in the industrial and financial sectors of the economy. The following principles served as the methodology of research: dialectical substantiation of the integrity of economic systems, univer-sality of relations between economic entities, determinism of the dynamics of the economy by the features of its structure, structural… Show more

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Import substitution today: analysis methodology

Gogoleva,

Kosenkov,

Kanapukhin

et al. 2023

Proceedings of Voronezh State University. Series: Economics and Management

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Subject. The context determining state regulatory measures with regard to foreign trade depends on a number of economic, political, social, and legal factors. At the moment, they are becoming the basis for the state economic policy, which is defined as an import substitution policy (with regard to international economic ties). Objectives. The purpose of our study was to substantiate the methodological approach to the analysis of the causes and consequences of the current import substitution policy in Russia, and the way the state affected the results. Methodology. Our hypothesis is that the import substitution processes taking place in Russia since the late 1990s are a reaction of the economic system (including the state foreign economic policy) to external shocks rather than a deliberate policy of the government aimed at promoting ineffective industries of the national economy competing with foreign imports on the national market. In our study, we used the method of empirical observations based on analytical, expert, and statistical data. Results. The study substantiates the hypothesis that the import substitution policy conducted in Russia since the 1990s is a political and economic reaction to external shocks of various origin and nature, which caused an imbalance in the micro- and macroeconomic relationships of the country. The article considers the specific features of three stages of import substitution in Russia: 1998-2003, 2014-2021, and from 2022 until now. Discussion. The obtained results are compared with the conclusions made by researchers who analysed the import substitution processes in Russia in the said time periods using the neoclassical approach and made forecasts as to the prospects of technological development. Conclusions. The conducted analysis allowed us to make a conclusion that import substitution can be defined as a result of external shocks, i.e. the impact of external factors (economic, political, etc.) on the relationships established within the economic system resulting in the destruction of such relationships. Essential aspects of import substitution include the content aspect, the role of the state, the role of the global market, the conditions created for import substitution, and the technological aspect. We also analysed the specifics of import substitution in Russia during various stages, from 1998 up to the present moment.

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Import substitution today: analysis methodology

Gogoleva,

Kosenkov,

Kanapukhin

et al. 2023

Proceedings of Voronezh State University. Series: Economics and Management

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Analysis of the dynamic model of the impact of external economic shocks on inflationary processes

Antipina

2024

Vestnik of Samara University. Economics and Management

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The past few decades by the emergence of such crises in the economic and social sphere of society, which resulted in economic supply shocks have been marked. Previously extremely rare, they have shifted the focus to the relevance of research on macroeconomic processes affected by shocks of this nature, not only in economic theory, but also in mathematical modelling. As a result of the analysis of already known macroeconomic models, it was revealed that the impact of external economic shocks on the main indicators of macroeconomics can have both negative and positive effects on economic growth. The purpose of the study is to build and analyze a dynamic optimization model, as well as recommendations for developing an optimal economic policy strategy. The article contains a description of the formulation and mathematical formalization of the macroeconomic task of levelling social damage from the impact of an external economic supply shock on the inflationary process and the unemployment rate. The connection between the two latter processes is established on the basis of the equation of the modified Phillips curve, supplemented by inflationary expectations, assuming a short-term perspective. The corresponding to this task economic and mathematical model is classified as an optimization model and represents the task of finding the conditional minimum of the loss functional. The article describes the qualitative analysis of this model, carried out using the methods of calculus of variations, formulas describing the dynamics of the above-mentioned macroeconomic indicators are obtained, a formula is derived for finding the level of inflation expectations at each moment of the time period under consideration. The obtained results of the mathematical model study are interpreted economically, while special attention is paid to the analysis of the impact of the external supply shock on these indicators.

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External and Internal Shocks in the Economy: A Review of Approaches

Cited by 2 publications

References 3 publications

Import substitution today: analysis methodology

Import substitution today: analysis methodology

Analysis of the dynamic model of the impact of external economic shocks on inflationary processes

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