Extinction of the northern oceanic deep convection in an ensemble of climate model simulations of the 20th and 21st centuries

Brodeau, Laurent; Köenigk, Torben

doi:10.1007/s00382-015-2736-5

Cited by 52 publications

(82 citation statements)

References 74 publications

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“…This is surprising since the CMIP5 future simulations with EC-Earth (Brodeau and Koenigk 2015) indicated strongly reduced deep water convection in the Labrador Sea. This prevents that the relatively fresh surface layer is mixed with the underlying saltier layers, which would lead to a further reduction of SSS and convective activity.…”

Section: Oceanmentioning

confidence: 75%

“…Thereafter, the AMOC increases again but its average stays about 3 Sv smaller in EXP2030 than in EXP2000; also in EXP2015 a significant reduction occurs (compare Table 1). This reduction in (Brodeau and Koenigk 2015). Towards the end of our 100-year simulations, the differences between the three simulations decrease.…”

Section: Oceanmentioning

confidence: 82%

“…The latter period falls together with the warming period in EXP2030. Brodeau and Koenigk (2015) found a highly significant correlation between decadal variations of the DMV in the Labrador Sea and the AMOC a few years thereafter. Also in our simulations, the DMV is clearly related to the AMOC.…”

Section: G-imentioning

confidence: 90%

“…The DMV is an index for the deep convection. It integrates the mixed water masses below a specific depth over a specific region (Brodeau and Koenigk 2015). Here, we use the same depth criterion of 1000 m as done by …”

Section: Oceanmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In b, c, e, f, h, i only areas with significant changes exceeding the 95 % level are shown as colored Brodeau and Koenigk (2015) but we have moved the box for the convective region of the Labrador Sea region used in Brodeau and Koenigk (2015) slightly to the northwest to capture the more realistic placement of the deep convection in EC-Earth3.0.1 compared to EC-Earth2.3. Figure 4a shows less frequent deep convective events in the Labrador Sea in EXP2015 compared to EXP2000 but the amplitude of the events is still similar.…”

Section: G-imentioning

confidence: 99%

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Arctic climate and its interaction with lower latitudes under different levels of anthropogenic warming in a global coupled climate model

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2016

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Section: Oceanmentioning

confidence: 75%

Section: Oceanmentioning

confidence: 82%

Section: G-imentioning

confidence: 90%

Section: Oceanmentioning

confidence: 99%

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confidence: 99%

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Arctic climate and its interaction with lower latitudes under different levels of anthropogenic warming in a global coupled climate model

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Connecting ocean heat transport changes from the midlatitudes to the Arctic Ocean

Nummelin

Hezel

2017

Geophysical Research Letters

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Under greenhouse warming, climate models simulate a weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation and the associated ocean heat transport at midlatitudes but an increase in the ocean heat transport to the Arctic Ocean. These opposing trends lead to what could appear to be a discrepancy in the reported ocean contribution to Arctic amplification. This study clarifies how ocean heat transport affects Arctic climate under strong greenhouse warming using a set of the 21st century simulations performed within the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. The results suggest that a future reduction in subpolar ocean heat loss enhances ocean heat transport to the Arctic Ocean, driving an increase in Arctic Ocean heat content and contributing to the intermodel spread in Arctic amplification. The results caution against extrapolating the forced oceanic signal from the midlatitudes to the Arctic.

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Gyre‐scale deep convection in the subpolar North Atlantic Ocean during winter 2014–2015

Piron

Thierry

Mercier

et al. 2017

Geophysical Research Letters

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Using Argo floats, we show that a major deep convective activity occurred simultaneously in the Labrador Sea (LAB), south of Cape Farewell (SCF), and the Irminger Sea (IRM) during winter 2014–2015. Convection was driven by exceptional heat loss to the atmosphere (up to 50% higher than the climatological mean). This is the first observation of deep convection over such a widespread area. Mixed layer depths exceptionally reached 1700 m in SCF and 1400 m in IRM. The deep thermocline density gradient limited the mixed layer deepening in the Labrador Sea to 1800 m. Potential densities of deep waters were similar in the three basins (27.73–27.74 kg m−3) but warmer by 0.3°C and saltier by 0.04 in IRM than in LAB and SCF, meaning that each basin formed locally its own deep water. The cold anomaly that developed recently in the North Atlantic Ocean favored and was enhanced by this exceptional convection.

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Extinction of the northern oceanic deep convection in an ensemble of climate model simulations of the 20th and 21st centuries

Abstract: the Labrador and Greenland Seas, the AMOC undergoes a linear decline at a rate of about −0.3 Sv per decade during the twenty-first century.

Cited by 52 publications

References 74 publications

Arctic climate and its interaction with lower latitudes under different levels of anthropogenic warming in a global coupled climate model

Arctic climate and its interaction with lower latitudes under different levels of anthropogenic warming in a global coupled climate model

Connecting ocean heat transport changes from the midlatitudes to the Arctic Ocean

Gyre‐scale deep convection in the subpolar North Atlantic Ocean during winter 2014–2015

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