Extreme Floods and Droughts under Future Climate Scenarios

Markus, Momcilo; Cai, Ximing; Sriver, R. L.

doi:10.3390/w11081720

Cited by 13 publications

(8 citation statements)

References 21 publications

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“…In addition, mass mortality and widespread dieback events driven by extreme drought can modulate landscape structure and function by intensifying runoff and soil erosion processes (Weifeng et al, 2012). Plant mortality events and associated landscape effects are predicted to accelerate under increasingly extreme droughts (Momcilo et al, 2019). The spatiotemporal reorganization of the vegetation cover, driven by hydro‐climatic extremes, is fundamental for the function of the ecosystems.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Toward an extreme world: The hyper‐arid ecosystem as a natural model

Groner,

Babad,

Berda Swiderski

et al. 2023

Ecosphere

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The forecasted increased frequency and intensity of extreme climatic events may strongly affect ecosystem structure and function in the future. It is unclear how ecosystems will function in the long run over a large spatial scale under a new extreme water cycle. This open question calls for a conceptual framework as a fundamental basis for theoretical and experimental exploration of ecosystem function on a large scale driven by an extreme climate envelope. To assess the problem on a large scale, we investigated hyper‐arid ecosystems (HAEs) as natural tangible models that already function under an extreme climatic envelope. Our new assertion is that if extreme climate change drives arid lands to function under alternate extreme conditions, then arid land ecosystems will function like an HAE as an alternative state, rather than progress to desertification. To support our assertion, we developed a conceptual framework of HAEs that includes a geo‐hydrological “abiotic engine” that drives HAE function by soil moisture diversity and plant functional groups. Based on this conceptual framework, we suggest incorporating two new hypotheses in climate change studies to advance our understanding of responses of large‐scale, water‐limited ecosystems: (1) Hydro‐climatic extremes in water‐limited ecosystems will reduce the degree of resource conservation by slope ecosystems due to reduction in plant cover and soil. The decreased ecosystem function on the slope will be compensated for by increasing the effect of the abiotic engine on the ephemeral stream, thus enhancing meta‐ecosystem functioning in the ephemeral stream. (2) In water‐limited ecosystems, climate change toward hydro‐climatic extremes will rescale the dominant hydro‐ecological processes of pulse–reserve, source–sink, and connectivity along the semiarid, arid, and HA gradients in two ways: (i) shrinking of both spatial and temporal dimensions; and (ii) shrinking in the temporal dimension and expanding in the spatial dimensions. The first rescaling trajectory is related to biodiversity–ecosystem function and the second to the abiotic engine processes.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Toward an extreme world: The hyper‐arid ecosystem as a natural model

Groner,

Babad,

Berda Swiderski

et al. 2023

Ecosphere

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“…Climate projections indicate that in many regions of the world the risk of increased flooding or more severe droughts will be higher in the future [103]. While no significant changes were detected in annual rainfall series since an abrupt break in 1909 in Uccle (centre of Belgium) [104], winter precipitations show several increases from 1833-1909, 1910-1987, and 1988-2007.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Return Period of Characteristic Discharges from the Comparison between Partial Duration and Annual Series, Application to the Walloon Rivers (Belgium)

Campenhout

Houbrechts

Peeters

et al. 2020

Water

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The determination of the return period of frequent discharges requires the definition of flood peak thresholds. Unlike daily data, the volume of data to be processed with the generalization of hourly data loggers or even with an even finer temporal resolution quickly becomes too large to be managed by hand. We therefore propose an algorithm that automatically extracts flood characteristics to compute partial series return periods based on hourly series of flow rates. Thresholds are defined through robust analysis of field observation-independent data to obtain five independent flood peaks per year in order to bypass the 1-year limit of annual series. Peak over thresholds were analyzed using both Gumbel’s graphical method and his ordinary moments method. Hydrological analyses exhibit the value in the convergence point revealed by this dual method for floods with a recurrence interval around 5 years. Pebble-bedded rivers on impervious substratum (Ardenne rivers) presented an average bankfull discharge return period of around 0.6 years. In the absence of field observation, the authors have defined the bankfull discharge as the Q0.625 computed with partial series. Annual series computations allow Q100 discharge determination and extreme floods recurrence interval estimation. A comparison of data from the literature allowed for the confirmation of the value of Myer’s rating at 18, and this value was used to predict extreme floods based on the area of the watershed.

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“…From 2010 to 2013, climate change aggravated flood disasters in northern Eurasia, parts of northwestern India, and large areas in central Africa [7]. In the past few decades, river flood losses caused by global climate change have been increasing dynamically and are expected to become more frequent in the next 100 years [8], and the resulting extreme floods will cause continuous disasters [9]. Relevant prediction studies in some regions show that due to the impact of climate change, the future rainfall intensity in the Philippines will increase by about 69%, resulting in a larger flood scale [10].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Extreme Flood Levels during the Operation of Cascade Reservoirs: A Case Study of the Lower Yangtze River in 2020

Zhu

2023

Water

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Flood disasters related to climate change are becoming increasingly frequent, indicating the potential for repeated future incidence. It is essential to fully understand the causes and mechanisms of flood formation to reduce future losses. By taking the extreme flood in the lower Yangtze River in 2020 as an example and using hydrological and rainfall data of the basin, the formation process and triggering factors of a flood disaster were analyzed in this study. The flooding process can be divided into six typical stages, in which the long duration plum rain season, frequent and high-intensity rainstorms, and high overlapping rainfall areas are the preconditions for flood formation, whereas frequent encounters of floods in the main stream and tributaries of the middle and lower Yangtze River are the decisive factors. In addition, flood drainage along the lower reaches and the jacking effect of the downstream tide level play a role in promoting flooding. During this process, the joint operation of cascade reservoirs plays a key role in the prevention of catastrophic floods. The aforementioned results can provide a reference for flood control strategies in case of similar floods in the future.

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Extreme Floods and Droughts under Future Climate Scenarios

Cited by 13 publications

References 21 publications

Toward an extreme world: The hyper‐arid ecosystem as a natural model

Toward an extreme world: The hyper‐arid ecosystem as a natural model

Return Period of Characteristic Discharges from the Comparison between Partial Duration and Annual Series, Application to the Walloon Rivers (Belgium)

Extreme Flood Levels during the Operation of Cascade Reservoirs: A Case Study of the Lower Yangtze River in 2020

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